Birchtree's Account Talk

It is so nice to see that so many have recovered from last year. This has been a great year for those on this site.
This is exactly the situation that prompted me to start TSP Talk in late 2003/ online in January of 2004.

In 2003 I was fortunate enough to make 39% in my account (the S-fund was up 42%), and people I worked with were still sitting in the G fund after having the crap beat out of them during the 2000-2002 bear market. They were scared to come out not realizing there are good opportunities out there. They didn't understand, and who was going to tell them? The rest is history. :)
 
"Is the low VIX a warning for stocks?"

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34573992

"A day of reckoning coming for S&P 500."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34573752

yeah, Birch, what happened to a couple months ago when you were talking about late December and VIX below 20 meant you might actually start taking some off the table?

To be honest I didn't believe you. I think your "sticky pants" paints are glued on and you plan to ride the 'fright' train again.

Or maybe now I remember you thinking a 10-15% correction might come in around the 12-month mark.
 
The new cyclical bull market will be twelve months old at the end of March '10. There is no reason yet to be in any kind of a hurry to fully cut and run. A few 5% sacrifices ahead of the blindside should suffice.
 
yeah, Birch, what happened to a couple months ago when you were talking about late December and VIX below 20 meant you might actually start taking some off the table?

To be honest I didn't believe you. I think your "sticky pants" paints are glued on and you plan to ride the 'fright' train again.

Or maybe now I remember you thinking a 10-15% correction might come in around the 12-month mark.

He mentioned a Reverse DCA method of taking some off the table in recent posts. I think he will ride this through January/February. Then a slow draw down. An interesting technique.
 
For unto us a Child is born .......


Merry Christmas to one and all !!!



Love and Happiness to everyone that has ever been on this MB.

Steady
 
I ended week #42 off the March low at $876K - I'll need to make $124K next week to end week #43 at $1M from that low point. I got a good chance. If not then I'll be patient and wait until week #44 to hit my target. And then I start the process again for 2010 - how many weeks will it take to cinch up the second million. I'm going to become an active buyer again and continue my accumulation of wall flowers. I made 652 stock buys from June 26th and can't wait to fire up the big MACK again. When the year ends I'll tell everyone what my long market value is just for fun.
 
"Odds are good that stocks will ride out the final week of the year on an upswing that could continue into early January. In the past 25 years, the week before Christmas and Kwanzaa is generally an up week. The week after Chgristmas and during Kwanzaa is generally twice as strong. Traders are anticipating a Santa Claus rally, which occurs when stocks rise in the final five sessions of the year and the first two of the new year. People who have not participated will feel compelled to participate. We also think there will be a reallocation from bonds to stocks."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34587570
 
The NYSE breadth MCO has broken above its downtrend line - now reading 59.57. The NYAD (Daily) Composite at 119397.00 is a new all time high. The NYSE breadth MCSUM has also broken its downtrend line and moving up. I'm fully prepared for a throttle up blast off next week. I need to make $124K. If you're not in the market don't worry about it. It's only money.
 
From the print edition of TWSJ 12/24/09.
"Long-term mutual funds had net inflows for the 40th week on continued strength for bond funds, according to figures released on Wednesday by the Investment Company Institute.

Total estimated inflows were $11.33 billion in the week ended Dec. 16, putting the total during the streak at about $400 billion. The influx began as equity markets were approaching their bottom in early March.

Stock funds had inflows of $289 million, compared with outflows of $546 million a week earlier. U.S. equities saw outflows of $1.17 billion in the latest week, while foreign funds added $1.46 million.

At the same time, bond funds took in $10.01 billion, up from $4.15 billion the previous week. Bond funds have been seeing heightened inflows as investors look to preserve 2009 gains from other asset classes while eschewing zero-yielding money market funds. Cash has been leaving money-market funds as investors seek higher returns - yields for the funds have been close to zero for months."

I'm staying right where I am in the stock market. The first time some one yells fire the bond investors will head for the door and many will get crushed in the jam up. Nope, I'll just take the trade less traveled and let them come to me - and I know they will come. Just like most were on the wrong trade for the dollar - now it's the bond trade. And this too shall pass.
 
"Schaeffer on Charts: Is the VIX too low south of 20? About 500,000 VIX calls have been accumulated in open interest, compared to just 125,000 VIX outs. So on the surface, it appears that the big bet is for a higher VIX (and by implication a lower SPX). The surprise would be a major foray below 20. This would be very painful for VIX call buyers, and we know what they say about the market's propensity to inflict pain on the greatest number of players."

http://www.scharfferresearch.com
 
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