Birchtree's Account Talk

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Art Hogan says: "Looking to 2010. The start of a new year on Wall Street traditionally brings the 'January effect', in which stock prices tend to increase during the month. And 2010 could ring in the strongest January effect we've seen in quite some time. But what's really going to dominate the first quarter is massive mergers and acquisitions activity. There's a lot of cash on corporate balance sheets that can be put to use. Hogan also said stocks should see more cash influx in 2010, on funds coming out of the bond market."
 
Enough of this war talk going on today. Tonight is the first lighting of the Mishumaa Saba 7 candles in the Kinara - for the beginning of Kwanzaa. This is a nonreligious celebration of African-American heritage and teaches good principles. The seven guiding principles are: 1. Umaja - unity, 2. Kujichagulia - self-determination, 3. Ujima - collective work and responsibility, 4. Ujamaa - cooperative economics, 5. Nia - purpose, 6. Kuumba - creativity, 7. Imani - faith. These values are relevant year round. Spread the word to make a better world.
 
"But he sees trouble brewing later into the second quarter and second half of the year. In fact, he has a year end 2010 target on the S&P 500 of 1150, not far from where it is now."

"I'm more constructive going into the first quarter," he said. He said the high water mark on the S&P could be about 1250."

http://www.cnbc.com/id/34587570
 
Alright here's the deal. As my first New Year's resolution I plan to increase my margin debt up to $2M - that means I buy a lot of stock. The more I buy the more buying power I gain when the assets appreciate - sounds reasonable. I'm excited about the prospects of increasing that debt - but I have to be careful of interest rate increases. Some rate increases will be good for stocks because it indicates that the economy has infact recovered and is gaining momentum. My interest costs are tax deductable so that will help and if I don't use all the deduction they can be carried forward - so I think now is the time to pull out the stops and ride the wooly beast as high as the ride permits. Since there is still so much skepticism regarding the markets now seems to be the ideal time to punch the pedal to the metal. Snort.
 
Birchtree said:
"With the VIX trading in the low to mid 20's Goldman sees an opportunity for more downside as the economy continues to normalize and investors become less skittish. The VIX has historically traded in the 15-17 range and Goldman sees a return to this level."

http://pragcap.com/goldmans-top-trades-for-2010
Click to expand...

So now everyones "system" will have to reboot to the 2002 to 2007 settings...without the volatility maybe we will be able to make sense of the market directions.

Now that is kookie talk!:toung:
 
Courtesy of Anthony, may I present the B&T500 Total Market Index (^BTSNRT)
 
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I only own 319 individual stocks - but I do plan to pump another $1M into the oceanic account before the year 2010 ends. I believe this cyclical bull has many more months and years to run. There is so much pent up demand from folks who sat on the sidelines who knows where this bull will end up.
 
It looks like Thursday will be my make or break day to move up the tracker. Both the R2K and the NYSE composite are bleeding off steam today so the S fund will play give back. There is most likely to be a negative fair value on the I fund and that will bring down the I fund B&H group closer to my position. I'll give back some today but probably not that much which would leave me in position to advance tomorrow. TSPtalk has headed for safety COB today and will take a hit - whether he floats down past me remains to be seen. But there will be no gains for tomorrow and that is the sacrifice. So if the C fund can hold steady today and rally tomorrow I'll be in like Flint. Otherwise looking forward to another bullish year in 2010.
 
Birch,
What day does Honey Bee and the Bird's offspring hook up to head to the nest ??


I want to pray for you and everyone that day !!

Been thinkin' about it more and more.


Oh and another thing I thought about was you and Nnutt both retiring like within the next week ....

Both of you have really done well preparing for Retirement. He's been debt free ... house paid off and planned it well. You've been paying off the credit cards and what you've amassed is excellent.

I figure you'll probably make about half of what your new place will cost when your present house sells. Old Habits are hard to break Birch and I know you've pretty much been saving up your whole life and want to leave a lot for the future grandkids who aren't even born yet. You really should try to come up with a few big things for you and Honey bunch.

Anyway -- let me know the date and I'll do what I can.
 
Hi Steady,

The wedding is on January 23rd. I'll be spending time around Lake Glenville and Lake Keowee on the return trip. Cashiers, N.C. and Senaca, S.C. Property values are finally starting to drop some in each area and the early buyers that planned to flip are now caught and willing to sacrifice to get out from under the weight. I don't plan to sell my Florida home until the wife decides to retire - if my equity value reaches the $3M mark she will come to the lake property regardless. She can retire at any time if she wants to do that - but she loves her job and is not ready yet. So I have time to get all the preparations complete and gently introduce her to the cooler summers while on vacation.
 
Birchtree said:
Hi Steady,

The wedding is on January 23rd. I'll be spending time around Lake Glenville and Lake Keowee on the return trip. Cashiers, N.C. and Senaca, S.C. Property values are finally starting to drop some in each area and the early buyers that planned to flip are now caught and willing to sacrifice to get out from under the weight. I don't plan to sell my Florida home until the wife decides to retire - if my equity value reaches the $3M mark she will come to the lake property regardless. She can retire at any time if she wants to do that - but she loves her job and is not ready yet. So I have time to get all the preparations complete and gently introduce her to the cooler summers while on vacation.
Click to expand...

Thanks Birch !!

Will reserve that day for you and yours ;):cool::cool::cool:
 
"Bogle on the next decade. Bogle estimates that about 90% of mutual fund inflows in 2009 went to bonds, investors who focused on bonds missed out on the huge stock market rally. Rely on the wisdom of long-term investing and forget the folly of short term speculation because it's a loser's game."

"Fisher sees well above returns for 2010. And so now the investing public sees a future of dismal returns, just as it did in the mid-1970s and early 1980s, shortly before a long bull market started."

http://theguruinvestor.com
 
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