Birchtree's Account Talk

[Handballer]

Birch, you're an oak. Thanks for all your good comments this year.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX just broke a yearly low at 20.40 down 1.28. I'm nervous but I'm holding strong through the Kwanzaa celebrations of 12/26 - 1/1/10. The oceanic is hitting some targets today. Remember the market will be closing early on Thursday. We are simply taking back that previous 132 point drop - we might even get more than that.

 

[JamesE]

+1 on that! Birch, what do you make of the 20.35 reading on the VIX today?? I'd hate to sell right now, my gut says hang in there till Jan.

Oh man, you just beat me to it, carry on!

 

[Birchtree]

Me thinks my SNS position is running with a poison pill strategy. They just had a reverse split 1 for 20 exchange. My position went from 775 shares to 38 shares and the price went from $15 to $300. They must be running from a possible takeover.

 

[Steadygain]

The VIX just broke a yearly low at 20.40 down 1.28. I'm nervous but I'm holding strong through the Kwanzaa celebrations of 12/26 - 1/1/10. The oceanic is hitting some targets today. Remember the market will be closing early on Thursday. We are simply taking back that previous 132 point drop - we might even get more than that.

Hey Birch,
I know you've talked about 'bailing' in Dec before and all the more have talked about the VIX @ 20 being pretty dangerous.

Last year I started off fully invested and got smashed right off the bat and don't want to repeat that. Still regardless of the VIX, which to me seems to be getting too much attention, in light of the 3/09 lows and the overall projections I've been hearing ... things should start getting better and not worse over the long run.

Are you shifting to Safety mainly because of retirement ... or do think we'll be going through a few months of rough tides before things get better.

I guess I'm a little perplexed about 'bailing now' considering the overall picture ???

 

[Birchtree]

No bailing in December. If the VIX continues to drop I'm going to shift 5% a month for the next six months - they call it butt dragging. But I'm really in no hurry. You should read the Martin Armstrong letter on page 610, post #7320. It was very interesting.

 

[Birchtree]

"Rosenberg: Don't expect fed rate increases through end of 2011."

http://wallstreetpit.com/

 

[Steadygain]

No bailing in December. If the VIX continues to drop I'm going to shift 5% a month for the next six months - they call it butt dragging. But I'm really in no hurry. You should read the Martin Armstrong letter on page 610, post #7320. It was very interesting.

Thanks Birch,
Maybe tomorrow -- mainly wanted your opinion.

This stuff about women soldiers and everything has worn me out.

 

[coolhand]

I'm going to post this here, just for you my friend.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=114387

 

[Nordic]

I'm going to post this here, just for you my friend.

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=114387

BT, be sure to read beyond the first post in this one

 

[Birchtree]

Thanks Coolhand and you to Nordic. I always like reading anything from Stickan.

J.P. Morgan Chase and Credit Suisse Group economists recently boosted fourth-quarter growth estimates to 4.5% from 3.5%.

I think we do 1120 before the close and the VIX into the 19 zone.

 

[Birchtree]

"Trahan, Hyman on What to Expect in 2010. The economic recovery should be led by business spending, not consumer spending."

http://theguruinvestor.com/

 

[Birchtree]

Many board lurkers don't have access to the tracker rankings. I'm currently, for those curious, at #39 out of around 260 players with a 27.11% gain. Reaching for #30 before the year ends with a 30% yearly gain.

 

[Birchtree]

Looks like the principle of symmetry at work. The SPX is next to shine.

http://slopeofhope.com/2009/12/nasdaq-at-61.8-retracement.html

 

[Birchtree]

Vincent Farrell Jr. says: "History says a strong dollar means a strong stock market."

 

[Birchtree]

"Top timing newsletters bullish heading into 2010."

"Top strategists see moderate gain in 2010."

http://theguruinvestor.com/

 

[Steadygain]

Many board lurkers don't have access to the tracker rankings. I'm currently, for those curious, at #39 out of around 260 players with a 27.11% gain. Reaching for #30 before the year ends with a 30% yearly gain.

What makes this even better is Birch gave everyone like a 15% LEAD and a lot of people were going on and on about:

Hey look Birch that's why I'm 9% and you're -12% and so for the first few months you had all these hecklers and nay sayers attacking him and he was down towards the bottom.

But Birch looked up and held his ground and went on and on about being Bullish -- even when no one could possibly understand.

Then 'The Pros' fled to the Bunkers ... and some are still there and they kept making fun of Birch when the Markets started climbing in 3/09 and everyone was confident -- the Markets would fall lower.

Everyone except for Birch that is cause he kept trying to help everyone out -- but no one wanted to listen.

Now Look where he is -- That's right folks the TOP 50 ain't enough for Birch and it wouldn't matter if there were 8,000 players.

Good Night Birch -- and GOOD JOB !!!

 

[Gumby]

What makes this even better is Birch gave everyone like a 15% LEAD and a lot of people were going on and on about:

Hey look Birch that's why I'm 9% and you're -12% and so for the first few months you had all these hecklers and nay sayers attacking him and he was down towards the bottom.

But Birch looked up and held his ground and went on and on about being Bullish -- even when no one could possible understand.

Then 'The Pros' fled to the Bunkers ... and some are still there and they kept making fun of Birch when the Markets started climbing in 3/09 and everyone was confident -- the Markets would fall lower.

Everyone except for Birch that is cause he kept trying to help everyone out -- but no one wanted to listen.

Now Look where he is -- That's right folks the TOP 50 ain't enough for Birch and it wouldn't matter if there were 8,000 players.

Good Night Birch -- and GOOD JOB !!!

Ol' Birch sure has a leg up on my return this year. Great job BT on your exceptional year.

 

[Birchtree]

My tracker gain is nice but when you DCA shares at lower prices the percentages in PIP terms really rachet up. Dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all portfolios and all it takes is time and a little courage to throw good money down the deep dark well. Now I'm looking forward to my new adventure as a swing trader. Some are saying that the VIX no longer works as a signal - just when you think that may be the case around comes the blind side to prove you wrong and cause some pain. A little pain has always been a blessing when you can dollar cost average for the long haul.

 

[Birchtree]

"AS merger activity picks up, is that good news for stocks? Art Hogan expects deal activity to really pick up in the first quarter because so many companies are sitting on piles of cash. If that's the case, it could be a tailwind for share prices."

http://www.dailyfinance.com/