Birchtree's Account Talk

Sort by newest Sort by date
My daughter interviewed for a Program Manager job in Chicago this morning at 0800. One of the interviewers was a retired Army lieutenant colonel - that should help. You never know where these ex-military people are going to turn up. This company does a lot of work in the pharmaceuticals industry and that could be a good fit with her educational background in chemical engineering. The new GI bill is going to handle most of her MBA expenses and the stop loss program money will help. She has also signed up with an Army Reserve unit in the Chicago area. It won't be long and she'll be sending money home. The Army Reserve unit is going to be deployed in October - but she is safe for twenty-four months since she has already been deployed to Iraq once.
 
I just noticed yesterday that anything over $14 in SNS (Steak and Shake) puts me at a $5,000 profit. I think I'll keep it until $30 and keep nibling all the way up until I have a $30K profit. Buy and hold still works for me.
 
Where's the Birch this morning....I need just a little encouragement to get in!

Lobo :)
 
I think I can speak for Birch by saying...

The market is going to go up, so buy. If it doesn't, buy anyway. It's just a better buying opportunity. Market up - good. Market down - good. It's all good. Always be a buyer. Never sell.

Thank you. :D

No disrespect intended. I'm sincere. It's his style, and it works well for him.
 
"Are we still within the confines of a secular bear market that began in 2000, while we are currently undergoing a second cyclical bull market that began in March of this year. The current secular bear market is 108 months old, just over half the average life of a secular bear market, though it witnessed a 65.54% decline from the 2000 top to the March 2009 low. Given the relative young age of the current secular bear market the current cyclical bull market is not likely the start of a new secular bull market as we are likely to remain within the confines of a secular bear market into the next decade. If we are still within the confines of a secular bear market, at which point should investors be concerned that the current cyclical bull market will end and practice some risk management by reducing exposure to stocks?

As the overall trend in the four risk management indicators is toward improvement rather than deterioration, it is perhaps too soon to become overly bearish on the stock market. What should be emphasized is the indicators are predominantly based on momentum and thus require market deterioration to occur before they generate sell signals, and thus do not call absolute tops or bottoms.

We could have an episode in which it would take a nearly 13% correction to bring the SPX back down to its rising 200d MA and still give a bullish tone to the market as the rising 200d MA indicates the market trend is still up."

http://financialsense.com/Market/daily/wednesday.htm by Chris Puplava 12/16/09

Now as a perma-bull what do I think? Well, I believe we have completed the second cyclical bear market on March 9th inside the confines of a mega trend secular bull market that actually started way back in August 1982 - and I was there for that ride. We are now enjoying another cyclical bull rally inside the confines of this same mega trend secular bull market. If I can avoid the 10% blind side I know is coming my oceanic account will make another $1M and my tugboat will make $200K in 2010.
 
Right now I'm $237K off my goal of making the $1M from the March 9th bottom. I came close at week #32 with a gain of $852K but have been trending sideways up to week #40. I will eventually get there but it may take up into week #44 before I can do it. Anyway, it's now time to plan for 2010 and how many weeks will it take to garner another $1M - I say less than forty next time around. I'll be buying all the way up starting in January. And the more one buys the greater the win - this cyclical bull market is going to last at least another three years and maybe a lot longer. The train is just now getting going. Snort.
 
Hey Birch, I've only got a minute.

Listen --- don't let others know you're afraid of them.

Don't be timid Birch, and be willing to stand up for yourself.

Don't be afraid to let others know how you feel -- no matter how you feel and no matter what it's about.

Ummmmm .... if someone says anything that bothers you ...tell them.

Anything on the news or whatever -- don't be afraid to let others know what you think.


OK --- Later man
Steady
 
Barry Ritholtz expects the market to continue to go higher in the first part of 2010 suggesting 1250-1300 as an upside target for the S&P 500. He has remained bullish since March but does not believe a new secular bull market has begun. He still thinks we're in a cyclical bull market within a secular bear market, which began in 2000.

Tim Wood feels the same way. "The Dow theory bullish trend confirmation that occurred earlier this year remains intact. Cyclically, the higher degree low that began at the March low also still remains intact. Longer term, I maintain, based on my data, that this is nonetheless a bear market rally. Once this rally has run its course the big surprise will be the Phase 2 decline and history shows us that Phase 2 declines are the most destructive. One reason for this is because with everyone believing that the bear market has ended, the Phase 2 decline takes everyone by surprise and as the realization begins to set in so does the panic."

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm 12/18/09

Only $207K to go to get the $1M off the March 9th low bottom - I'm excited that I might do it in the next eight trading days into week #43. I've had 73 dividends pay for reinvestment so far this month with more to go - every little bit helps. But for now I must eat tsptalk dust on the tracker - he'll fade and I'll cruise on by reaching for #30 by year end.
 
"Historical Volatility Pointing to a Sub-20 VIX. VIX of 20 spurring market correction? The combination of 10/20/30/50/100 day historical volatility has plummeted to levels not seen since mid-October 2007, which happens to be one week after the all-time high in the S&P 500 index."

http://greenfaucet.com
 
Birchtree said:
Now as a perma-bull what do I think? Well, I believe we have completed the second cyclical bear market on March 9th inside the confines of a mega trend secular bull market that actually started way back in August 1982 - and I was there for that ride. We are now enjoying another cyclical bull rally inside the confines of this same mega trend secular bull market. If I can avoid the 10% blind side I know is coming my oceanic account will make another $1M and my tugboat will make $200K in 2010.
Click to expand...

BT,

A correction of 10% - 15% normally takes some time to complete. Seems to take about a month or so even when the market dives.

If so, why not reallocate and use some of the other funds. Not an 'All In/All Out' approach. Maybe a 40/60 approach since you can never be certain when the next up leg will happen.

By the way, with the yummy sale that happened this March/April/May/June, how close are you to your 40,000 C Fund share goal? That sure is a lofty and worthy target. From my aim point the target seems to vanish into infinity.:worried:
 
Boghie,

When I convert my 15S and 15I positions back to the C fund I should be very close. My thinking is that if I maintain a buy and hold next year I should be able to make $200K with five points on the C fund up to the $18 range. My days of wine and roses with DCA are almost over - so I may be ready for the swing trade generation. Another approach if you will toward helping my balance. I think this continuation of the mega trend secular bull market will lead me to nirvana. At my age most investors are thinking capital preservation out of fear - but I have done the learning and now I'm ready to do the churning. I owe this MB alot of gratitude for my learning curve and now we'll see what the future holds. If my tugboat were my only account I would out of necessity have to be less aggressive but when Ferdinand is on my side we have to let the good times roll on down the tracks. I'm sure I'll get run over several times during this next year but that's simply par for the course. I'm ready for what Karma has to deliver and try not to get banned anymore. Figgy pudding for everyone.
 
Birch,

The funny thing is that I hope that I can limit my trading next year. However, I don't think that will happen because I think the market will churn. If the market stabalizes and normalizes than I hope to become what I once was - a buy, hold, and reallocator...

So, I guess I'm kinda going in the opposite direction as you. But, then again, my tugboat is the vast majority of my asset holdings. And, I still must - and have the time to - grow it.

By the way, thanks for holding me steady at some points this year. I could have easily traded out of a large gain in an effort to avoid a small loss.:)
 
"The SPX has a gap at 1109 from Thursday's action. A solid gap that won't be very easy to get back through. So while 1120 is the true breakout, the bulls have to focus their attention on being able to get back through that gap. Gaps are real headaches, especially when they take place near big breakout or breakdown levels so please just don't dismiss it as irrelevant. It's very relevant and could become a major problem. 1109 is the top of that gap as I mentioned thus we'll need a good close over 1109 to say goodbye to it."

http://safehaven.com/article-15305.htm
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

TommyIV
  • Article Article
TSP Talk AutoTracker Insights: TSP Investors Lock in Gains
Replies
1
Views
745
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
Problem with IFTs on Monday morning
Replies
3
Views
380
FireWeatherMet
FireWeatherMet
tsptalk
  • Article Article
The winning streak finally ends as stocks dip to start the week
Replies
0
Views
200
tsptalk
tsptalk
tsptalk
  • Article Article
Stocks continue to act well despite some obstacles
Replies
0
Views
96
tsptalk
tsptalk
J
TSP beneficiary question
2
Replies
26
Views
1K
evilanne
evilanne
Back
Top