Birchtree's Account Talk

[fedgolfer]

Birch, do you think the bearish crowd has pondered the fact that the lower bollinger on the SPX is ~1085... in September 1085 was overextended, now its the bottom of a trading range. If that's not letting institutional money go long with a safe spot to set a stop, i don't know what is.

 

[Birchtree]

The 50-EMA is around 1062 and we should be safe to stay long until violated at least I have no plans to sell until then. I'm still watching the VIX to give me my signal.

 

[Birchtree]

December happens to be a large dividend dump month for my portfolio so a sideways trading movement would be to my advantage for reinvestments. I've had 25 hits so far this month with many more to come. I anticipate another 50 hits before the month ends.

 

[fedgolfer]

How much gold do you think the Fed/Treasury unloaded on the open market to India at the high? Wwe're about to see a sh*tload of cash come into play. Don't fight the Fed.

 

[Birchtree]

I never fight the Fed and I never trust the Fed - lessons learned from over the years of being in this game and left bleeding on more than one occasion. I only fight with other MB members.

 

[Birchtree]

I had eleven dividends land on my doorstep yesterday - so that was pleasant. The current bull market could last a lot longer and rise a lot further than most anticipate. I'm in the same camp with Coolhand on this. It sure was nice having Sugar pop up yesterday on the politics in general thread - too bad she drinks so much coolaid. If she wasn't embarrassed she has no shame.

 

[Birchtree]

In 39 weeks off the March 9th bottom I'm up over $762K - should I lock more gains, nah. I'm reminded that mollusks don't have a firm bone in their body and the bull will keep them in fear and they'll be left at the station again - I'm going to get mine. I'm trying to push the $1M level before the year ends.

 

[sdouglas3]

in 39 weeks off the march 9th bottom i'm up over $762k - should i lock more gains, nah. I'm reminded that mollusks don't have a firm bone in their body and the bull will keep them in fear and they'll be left at the station again - i'm going to get mine. I'm trying to push the $1m level before the year ends.

sweet.....

 

[Birchtree]

"The expectation ratio continues to forecast strong earnings. Expectations remain very depressed and as long as firms can overcome these low expectations the market is likely to remain buoyant."

http://pragcap.com/er-1-27

 

[Birchtree]

"Billionaire hedge fund manager John Paulson said on Tuesday he still sees compelling long term returns in equities even after their sharp run-up this year, while holding no short positions in the credit markets. Today our net long exposure is perhaps the highest it has ever been in our portfolio." This guy is no mollusk.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15675.html

 

[Birchtree]

"Miller sees more gains in 2010"
"Nygren: Values are all over the place"
"Siegel on inflation, interest rates"
"Market-beating manager shifts to high quality"
"Grantham: Almost a certain bet that blue chips will outperform"

http://theguruinvestor.com/

 

[mayday]

"Market-beating manager shifts to high quality"
"Grantham: Almost a certain bet that blue chips will outperform"

Does look like the S&P outperformed today.

 

[KevinD]

Cone on, Birch. Buy this thing higher. :nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

"J.P. Morgan continues to like the risk trade. They see the economic recovery continuing into 2010 and forecast that many of the trends that have driven equity markets higher in 2009 will continue into 2010. They see a very strong outlook for corporate earnings and margin growth as the primary driver of equity prices. In fact they see profit margins expanding to their recent record highs."

http://pragcap.com/jp-morgan-em

 

[Birchtree]

"U.S. stocks mostly higher, with blue chips doing the heavy lifting, as a couple of reports this morning point to stronger 4Q growth. FOMC meets next week, and they're going to say what they've been saying all along. The recovery's here, but it's going to be very slow going for a long time, and thet're not going to change their stance on rates."

http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/?p=6958

 

[Steadygain]

Birch,
Obviously many of my comments also get distorted


Whatever !!!


Have a good weekend my friend



Be cool and let the 'Mrs' know I'll be late for supper

 

[Birchtree]

Your command is my request. I just paid off a credit card today.

 

[Birchtree]

We are just 315 data points away from an all time high on the ratio adjusted NYSE A/D line. What a wonderful bull market - full of worry and wealth. I need to go to the barn and get me a really big whiff and sniff of that sweet smelling superlative bull manure. It looks like a possible hard and fast up move coming next week. The 19 and 39 EMAs have been compressed for weeks now and the spring is loaded. Be in to win.

 

[Birchtree]

"The more I watch this market through its everyday whipsaw, the more I am convinced that the next decent move is going to be a higher one. When you have so many bases spread throughout so many different sectors, you have to give the benefit of the doubt to the bullish case. The trend has been higher for quite some time and all weakness is getting bought up at the 50 day EMA...the final sellers are being shaken out."

http://safehaven.com/article-15250.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Has my friend McDuck been buried or what? Miss your vituperative input bro.

Rallies usually peak amid buying frenzies, as the last buyers jump in for fear they're missing out and prices rise to levels not justufied by earnings projections. The error a lot of individual investors make is that by focusing on lagging data they may be missing out on one of the biggest rallies of their lifetime.

"Recent research from some of the highest bonus paying investment banks on the Street are suggesting that before this cyclical bull has run its course, the public will essentially have no choice but to up equity allocations meaningfully. It appears households have become very risk averse in their investment allocations for the current year. I've never seen an equity market up as much as we have experienced since the March lows of this year without the public beating down the doors to get into equity funds...until now. They're still beating down the doors, but this time to get out."

http://financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm by Brian Pretti 12/11/09