Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Coming out of one of the longest bear markets, should we now expect a long bull market?
"We believe this will not turn into one of the longer bull markets, or perhaps not even match the average Bull Market Duration of 3.8 years. But I also would say that it would be a rare exception to see this bull market expire before the end of next year. Note that not one bull market in the past 60 years has lasted less than two years."


Nice to see a positive prediction for 2010.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

From John Markman (and I forget where from) : "Will Dow return to 14,000? Bet on it. Combine buyouts with buybacks and new hiring, and once again you have the recipe for an extraordinary boom in asset prices. Buyout premiums are just another way stocks rise."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The key in terms of longer term health is for the indexes, the major indexes, to hold on to their 50 day exponential moving averages on a hold. A small breach isn't a problem but a close below with force would signal there's trouble. The numbers are 1056 on the S&P 500, 2094 on the Nasdaq and 9812 on the Dow. Anything in terms of selling above those levels is simply noise that can be bought. If we close 1% or more below those levels on ALL 3 major indexes, there's trouble ahead for the bulls. Simple as that."

http://safehaven.com/article-15013.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"U.S. goods exports are up a 34% annualized rate in the five months ended September. Clearly, the wheels of global commerce are spinning back up. Everything I see is consistent with a global recovery in confidence, in demand, and in production." Check out the Baltic Dry Index graph - it might be time to add to my shippers.

http://www.scottgrannis.blogspot.com/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Bull markets do not die of old age. Instead they are assassinated - usually by central banks. So how many rate bullets does it take to fell a bull. You may not be surprised to hear that there is no precise answer, because it depends mainly on sentiment and liquidity."

http://safehaven.com/article-15018.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

We are on our way to SPX 1117. If the S&P 500 can not exceed the key retracement levels of 50% (1117) or 61.8% (1222) of the 2007-2009 decline, then the market advance from the March lows will probably be over and then either a significant correction or prolonged consolidation may take shape. A multi-year global stock market rally has begun. The rise will be led by continous slow economic growth combined with low interest rates. That's one of the best environments for stock investing - show me the new asset bubble, please. The VIX is signaling a likely pull higher in coming days by equities. As the market moves higher the VIX generally speaking goes lower, and becomes a function of complacency and comfort. Overall the VIX has been in a bullish mode for several months now. Ibid.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Transports are now at 4052 which is above the previous yearly high at 4045. This now confirms the Industrial highs, and the secondary trend of the market is now decisively bullish. History has shown that November has been the best performing month for the S&P 500, on average, since the early 1950s. We are in the early stages of a multi-year up move.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"When a market doesn't do what it should do when it should do it then it may be about to do the exact opposite in a big way. In spite of a slew of ostensibility bearish technical setups, the equities markets have refused to sell off. These technical failures may have a potentially powerful bullish resolution."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article15070.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
The Transports are now at 4052 which is above the previous yearly high at 4045. This now confirms the Industrial highs, and the secondary trend of the market is now decisively bullish.
Click to expand...
You need a better quote service. ;) We're not quite there yet. Maybe by the close.

111609a.gif
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
History has shown that November has been the best performing month for the S&P 500, on average, since the early 1950s. We are in the early stages of a multi-year up move.
Click to expand...

What was that Jackie Gleason used to say... "How sweet it is!" :D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm so bullish I smell worse than Ferdinand. The bullish tonality is still prevalent. The market has had an amazing rally so far this year and I feel we will have a solid year end rally going into Christmas. I need to buy a set of Mikimoto pearls for the wife. A Dow of 13,000 by the end of December would fit nicely.
 
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