Birchtree's Account Talk

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Actually were closing in on 23, that 1.00 could be significant. I have noticed that the lower the VIX is the better investors market systems work. One of the reasons to ride this thing out is that the different investing strategies are so unpredictable the higher the VIX is.
When the VIX is rising the B&H looks like an idiot, when it is falling they look like a genious.
Bottom line the lower the VIX the lower the market volatility.

 

[Mcqlives]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Sorry to open up (or at least help to open up) this discussion on your pages. You have just been one of the few to openly comment on the VIX as an indicator.

As for my take on all these posts...some of you are looking at the VIX and trying to correlate it to a relative short term market mover based on past trends. I am looking at the recent months market movers and what correlation the VIX has to these moves. One thing that has been keeping us in the money maker column is the volatility remaining relatively high with moderate daily fluctuations. If we have multiple, larger fluctuations in the VIX, the market direction gets even more uncertain for me.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A lower VIX simply equates with complacency. When everyone becomes comfortable in investing that's when the blind side will catch you. I've been there many times over the years and sometimes they are welcomed providing you make preparations in advance of the event. That's what I'm trying to do with my 20 VIX level - money will be flowing into the ramp up one way rally and then out of the blue comes the hit. I may not be completely out but will undoubtedly save some grace. The end of February 2010 would be twelve months from the March lows and hedge funds will probably be ready to front run the trigger and if that happens we all pay the price. I'm just trying to think ahead.

This week was my second ever $100K week and next week could easily be my third. I'm now back to $828K gains by week #31 from the March lows. I have three weeks left to make $172K to pull down the first $M from the March lows. I'm confident this will happen because I know history and because I want huge gains I have set myself up with an oversize diversified position using leverage. We'll see how well it works. It does take a grain of courage to accept the risk not to mention a strong stomach and fortitude.

We should see some acceleration in the SPX next week as we break out of the leading disgonal. The NYA wants to break out of its diagonal also. Yes, next week could be hot, hot, hot.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Presenting The Bullish Case: Barton Biggs"

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?=71469

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Presenting The Bullish Case: Barton Biggs"

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=71469

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch! I know you are only 5 posts from 10,000, but you don't have to make double posts to get there.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

:laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tom,

I actually tried to delete it but it wouldn't budge. Perhaps you can help - I originally left off the id. Thanx.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If I delete it, it makes my post less funny and you'd be back down to 9,994 (since I'd also have to delete the one above this one), so I think I'll leave it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"October Crashes I Have Known." These downsides were really scary - it was like looking down a well that had no bottom. And even back then I didn't panic. Even though the 1987 imbroglio left me with my shoes full. In the great bull market of the 1990s, which began in October 1990, the market rose 249 percent over 1724 days before a 10% correction set in.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB125508899039075867.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"So what would be the catalyst for a breakout above 1080? Easy answer. Earnings. A bad report from INTC and this market will get smoked short term. However, if the news is exceptionally good, spin doctored or not, the market will blast higher, likely clearing 1080. Sticking with the trend is truly the only way to play the stock market. There is not even a hint of too many bulls at this point in time."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14125.html

 

[OBGibby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Dow 10,000 or Birchtree 10,000?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From the print edition of TWSJ 10/9/09.

"In the exchanges' latest twice-a-month statistics, this time for the period ended Sept. 30, the number of short-selling positions at the NYSE not yet closed out, known as short interest fell 3.4%. The positiuons stood at 13,061,828,730 shares from a revised 13,515,436,991 shares in the period ended Sept. 15. This is the fewest number of shorted shares since the end of 2007 suggesting an unwillingness to take bets against what has been a generally rising market." Can you smell the remaining jet fuel? It's time to strap in.

 

[OBGibby]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Congrats - 10K...I'm looking forward to another 10K bullish posts. Keep 'em comin', Birchtree.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Congrats Birchtree!

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=7583

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

GREAT JOB Birchtree, keep it up.
Who's next???

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That surely must indicate a lot of bull wind. I've made 566 individual stock purchases since June 26th via dollar cost averaging - what can it mean? If you buy you are predicting the market will go up but you don't really know how high and for how long. I'm an early and often buyer - not going to miss out on one of the biggest rallies in my lifetime. Snort. As I told one of our members missing a rally of this magnitude is a serious error of omission. I know there remains ample fear out there and that is a positive for the wall of worry. By the time the individual investor toughens up and decides to get in the rally will probably be peaking on an intermediate term basis - a classic sign of the fear of missing the boat. We have a buying frenzie approaching and stock prices will rise to levels I'm not sure where. My end of year SPX was 1700 and my Dow close was 17,000. Time will tell.

 

[nasa1974]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

Who would have thought that a shy person like yourself would have over 10,000 posts. :nuts:

Great job BT. Looking forward to your next 10,000.

 

[merlin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Congrat's Birch.

 

[dannyboy]

Re: imported post

I notice that today they (probably hedge funds) are pounding my oils, coal and chemicals in my outside account. That's alright, I've been thinking about adding to my economically sensitive stock positions anyway. Maybe I have some dividends due that can help-I'll have to check. Sure is a great way to buy if you can handle the short term depreciation in value. C'mon boys put your foot into my back, I am a contrarian and proud of it, do your damage. Live free or die.

Posts: 10,002
Congrats on the 10,k Bir. I live in a slightly different income level than you, but I really appreciate your constant faith in the markets. Please keep up the good work!