Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

hardyandtiny,

Welcome to the cash bar and thanks for the hint. I'm already prepared to take some defensive action in December - it will be one of the few times I've ever been on the lily pad or into the G fund hut. Everyone has been looking for the killer correction and so far only tilts and no action. The blind side will come but only when the majority are satisfied that the coast is clear - when I move it will seem premature and unnecessary but I've been in this game for a very long time and have the scars to prove it.
 
Birch is a'bailin'...

Not really,

I kinda figure the market will match the economy. We will be plowing around at -20% from the highs - that is, a major correction that never rebounds.

The difference between now and 2003 is the fact that our current Congress is partying like its 1999 - or maybe 1979. This Congress won't stop partying till the coke line dries up.

The -20% is obviously a SWAG - but, it feels right. Eh. Somewhere around 1200 to 1250 for the S&P. Then flat for years. Nothing is being done that will sustain growth. Anyway, at that time, the market has more risk for the return I expect.

Lilly pad, don't know. What about the F
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

When the economy starts to rebound it will be classic for interest rates to rise and the F fund will pay the dues. The natural way: one or two discount rate increases within a 6-month period are moderately bearish for stocks. Three or more rate increases are extremely bearish. Several years ago I kept saying that the Fed was trying to kill the housing industry - and boy did they ever. I just didn't realize that a 3% minority risk population involved with subprime would ripple like it did. Have to definitely pay more attention during this current cycle - the stock market is going to be the new asset bubble and it will reign glorious for a period of time.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Those who contend that the U.S. consumer slowdown will hamper stock returns are overlooking the global nature of U.S. firms, Siegel says. S&P 500 companies now get almost 50% of their profits from overseas, and growth from emerging nations will pick up the slack, he contends. And, he adds, stocks are still selling at low valuations, even after the recent run-up."

http://theguruinvestor.com/2009/10/06/stocks-still-win-siegel-says/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"As 2008 and early 2009 showed, in an abnormally distressed market, the good gets thrown out with the bad and there are opportunities for profit that one may only see once every couple of decades....but to profit, you must have the liquidity available to take advantage of those opportunities."

http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=71129
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
hardyandtiny,

Welcome to the cash bar and thanks for the hint. I'm already prepared to take some defensive action in December - it will be one of the few times I've ever been on the lily pad or into the G fund hut. Everyone has been looking for the killer correction and so far only tilts and no action. The blind side will come but only when the majority are satisfied that the coast is clear - when I move it will seem premature and unnecessary but I've been in this game for a very long time and have the scars to prove it.
Click to expand...

If and when 'the move' happens, it will seem early because the move itself will precipitate a new major correction when the public finds out permabull #1 is on the lilypad. Once that happens, everyone will be running for the exits.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm back to my strategy of buying early and often. The oceanic is showing a gain of $36K on the intraday so I'm spending some of it. Bought: CX, CBU, DRE, LII, RDC, CBI, DVR, BJS. I've now made 550 individual purchases via dollar cost averaging and I ain't stopping yet. If we can get up over the 9800 hump I may return to burn a few more dollars. Anything I buy today will probably cost even more tomorrow - at least that's the plan.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm back to my strategy of buying early and often. The oceanic is showing a gain of $36K on the intraday so I'm spending some of it. Bought: CX, CBU, DRE, LII, RDC, CBI, DVR, BJS. I've now made 550 individual purchases via dollar cost averaging and I ain't stopping yet. If we can get up over the 9800 hump I may return to burn a few more dollars. Anything I buy today will probably cost even more tomorrow - at least that's the plan.
Click to expand...
Good Luck with today, I know it's painful to buy on a day where you can almost taste the contraction tomorrow.....

Nice Gain on the intraday!:cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The intraday is now around $55K and the market is getting pushy - but I'm a buyer. Just finished buying: UDR, GCI, MTW, ARJ, ARM, BZH, DOW, GAP, MDR, RT. The market is anticipating the earnings and higher we go. I will probably come back again later if we hold our levels.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Byron Wien is still holding to his forecast of a 1200 SPX by the end of the year. This could be the biggest fourth-quarter rally in a decade. The biggest risk is missing the rally extension. With all of the breadth MCSUM's above their +500 levels, this makes it highly improbable that an opposing trend can develope. Be strong and stay long.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Elsewhere you indicated December would be the month you'd move to the G Fund, if VIX goes to 20. Using the above to refine your timeline, it seems you expect euphoria through the fourth quarter with a wakeup in January. ?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain said:
I don't think we've had 'Stronger Bear Sentiment' like we're having now for quite some time. Seems like we're approaching Record Highs. In light of that do you think:


1. it's possible we'll go up at least another 5% ~ before a correction
2. it's possible we'll continue to go up (as from 3/09)
3. that the incredibly bleak outlook will push us to successive record highs and in retrospect this period of history will FOREVER be remembered as the FASTEST and MOST SUSTAINED GAINS following any substantial Recession.


So tell us Birch - what do you think?

May use multiple numbers
Click to expand...

Well Birch I wrote that when you couldn't find the slightest trace of any 'upbeat' sentiment about the Markets...

Everyone... talking about the 'unavoidable' and 'inevitable' FALL

Do you ever feel 'guilty' about making more and more money during a time that was projected as 'having no hope'??

Friends often say to other friends: 'It much feel good to be a B&Her'
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Today was a nice $K day and I'm looking forward to the SPX crossing the 1095 level. This is the 13 month moving average and defines the delineation of bull market and bear market. Step back - I'm going to spread a little bull manure around. This bull market is now 7 months old. Since 1890, the average cyclical bull market - or bull that follows an economic recovery - has lasted 43 months and gained 130%, so history says this rally has more room to run. I'm a buyer tomorrow if the market pulls me in again. The more you own the more the potential appreciation.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I fully deserve my rewards. And I expect to be rewarded again and again. Bury me in the sweet smell of bull manure 'cause my strategy is set and I'm in real deep. I mean real deep. If we get a serious melt up the sky is the limit and I have no fear. Snort. Too many fear the give back - all give backs are for a reason. I often prefer to stand in front of the train and take the hit because it was always refreshing. Now that pattern of abuse used to drive a few members crazy - but they just didn't understand the therapeutic benefits.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Steady,

I fully deserve my rewards.

There is no doubt about that !!

And I expect to be rewarded again and again.

I would love to see that continue Birch -- and I pretty much expect you to continue to stand out and shine.

Bury me in the sweet smell of bull manure 'cause my strategy is set and I'm in real deep. I mean real deep.

Real deep in Money that is ;) and nothing make things go faster and better than good ole manure

If we get a serious melt up the sky is the limit and I have no fear. Snort.

Fear is most certainly NOT one of your characteristics

Too many fear the give back -

And they live and remain on the Lilly Pad :( It's sad but...

all give backs are for a reason.

Everything is for a reason... most just fail to see that truth

I often prefer to stand in front of the train and take the hit because it was always refreshing. :D

Now that pattern of abuse used to drive a few members crazy - but they just didn't understand the therapeutic benefits.
Click to expand...

Thanks Birch !! I needed the laugh :laugh:

That's great -- you're 'one of a kind'

Well Good Night my MB friends
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

On 10/1 the C fund gave back $0.32 - let's take it back tomorrow and close out the day at $12.89. I know a few people will be happy if that happens.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

we are closing in on those late (mid) sept. funds prices. I say we establish new highs before the next head fake. Atleast thats what I'm hopeful for:D
 
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