Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well today is no big deal - been here before and still flourished. The I funders at 100% will pay a price but that's Karma. The pause that refreshes - get all the sellers out of the way at one time. Shake out all those weak hands - only the strong will move forward. Simply base building for the next catapult higher.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Looking back I had 95 dividends paid in September and all with reinvestments. I certainly hope I had a few for today - nothing like buying with DCA. The total amount came to $4,821.52 - now if I could do that every month I'd have something cookin. I'm not at all worried about October yet - this is just business as usual in an emotional market where no one except myself and a few others believes in this new bull market. Usually, the number of stocks making new highs begins to deteriorate four to six months before indexes fall. I won't start to worry until the discount rate begins to move up. One or two discount rate increases within a 6-month period are moderately bearish for stocks. Three or more rate increases are extremely bearish - however there should be no increases until early 2011.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just found out that a Cyclical Bull Market is a Bear Market Rally!! The party is over!!!

Run for cover......G Fund
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch -- you wanted me to remind you 'It's Friday'!!

Though I see don't see how the ___ you could ever forget that :confused:

Well on the Market Stuff... ????

I don't think we've had 'Stronger Bear Sentiment' like we're having now for quite some time. Seems like we're approaching Record Highs. In light of that do you think:

1. it's possible we'll go up at least another 5% ~ before a correction
2. it's possible we'll continue to go up (as from 3/09)
3. that the incredibly bleak outlook will push us to successive record highs and in retrospect this period of history will FOREVER be remembered as the FASTEST and MOST SUSTAINED GAINS following any substantial Recession.

So tell us Birch - what do you think?

May use multiple numbers
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

wantbullishtsp said:
Just found out that a Cyclical Bull Market is a Bear Market Rally!! The party is over!!!

Run for cover......G Fund
Click to expand...

This thing has more legs. The party IS NOT over, because everybody thinks that the party IS over.

Buy the fear and Let's Go Red Sox!
 
hey b man

Birchtree said:
Well today is no big deal - been here before and still flourished. The I funders at 100% will pay a price but that's Karma. The pause that refreshes - get all the sellers out of the way at one time. Shake out all those weak hands - only the strong will move forward. Simply base building for the next catapult higher.
Click to expand...

Hey Bman,

Been up to my neck in work here at the fort as you know I went to the pad in late aug 09.....gave up some good gains(:mad: 14%) but I didn't lose soo....were seeing all the deals that have been prop up now becoming to heavy. I fund will go down, but not has much, has C will (it is my belief) S will suffer the most pain. I will look after the Christmas season. Last year the banks..........this year the consumer......no bailout though:mad:

On a more personnel note, I work for the US army at fort McPherson, And was informed by a former Work mate, that a Post (he works at)in the mid west (KANSAS) they are AVERAGING ONE SUCCESSFUL SUICIDE A WEEK. I wonder what is going on, that is causing these kinds of feeling after returning home? With so many?

Wonder what the rate is at larger combat post?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

So much for my goal of $1M by week 30 from the March bottom. I'm light to the tune of $309K - but I promise to keep trying until I make that goal. Perhaps I'll be there by week #33.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"There are many who are already declaring the bull market off the March lows dead. That may very well be true but don't fool yourselves in to thinking it's a done deal either. It normal and expected for markets to test down to those 50 day exponential moving averages from time to time. That allows for the oscillators to unwind and for any negative divergences that formed to be wiped out. In a true bull market, we often see the RSI's turn back up right where they are now, in the 40's. It will be extremely bearish if the market loses those 50 day exponential moving averages across the board."

http://safehaven.com/article-14635.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steve Leuthold joins Byron Wien in predicting that the S&P 500 will complete a 77 percent surge from its March low on Dec. 31 with a level of 1200. The S&P 500 surged as much as 58% from a 12 year low seven months ago in the steepest rally since the 1930s. Leuthold says, "It's premature to take any defensive action. We think there's going to be a lot more activity in term of acquisitions."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The fact that money is not leaving the stock market, but merely rotating into new sectors and market leaders is a very good sign. Cash on the sidelines is below its recent record level but remains abnormally high, so we remain in the midst of a 'liquidity event' where many stocks can 'melt up' when money pours into that sector. There is also quite a bit of excitement building over the upcoming third quarter earnings announcement season, which is expected to see the first positive year-on-year gain in 12 months."

http://www.navellier.com/commentary/weekly_marketmail.aspx
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Tomorrow the professional money managers will face their fears - the fear of being left behind. We could see a real old fashioned buying panic. Be in to win.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
Tomorrow the professional money managers will face their fears - the fear of being left behind. We could see a real old fashioned buying panic. Be in to win.
Click to expand...

Well I'm glad you haven't given up Birch !! :nuts:
You were starting to worry me with all the 'Doom and Gloom Talk' going around :laugh:

OK - weekend update

Had the place to myself as the others went to take part in a 1812 re-enactment.

Was going to have dinner at Red Lobster -- Shrimp feast for $30 and saw a Pound of Jumbo Shrimp at Walmart (farm grown) for $5...:D

so I marrinated the Shrimp overnight --- shewed them with Lemon wedges -- (broiled for 15 minutes) and ate them in the living room as I watched 'The Ghosts of Girlfriend's' - which was a perfect movie for eating shrimp.

Changed the oil - and getting to the halfway point 190,000 miles. Always use 'Premium Oil' best rating --- never use a Brand Name and get it for .93 cents a quart.... but change every 5,000

So that's my way of checking in and saying HI !!

BTW - I made 'more money' today... but I'm getting use to it
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gumby said:
Where do you get motor oil for $0.93 per quart?
Click to expand...

A store in my area called 'Farm and Fleet' --- it's their 'Brand'

Consumer Reports says:

AND WHENEVER I SAY THIS THEN THAT'S THE BOTTOMLINE AND THERE IS NO POSSIBLE WAY TO ARGUE IT....;)

Anyway - they say the important thing is the API -- and the type and rating. Theirs meet (or exceeds) GF 4; and had all the better grade letters SL... and whatever

According to Consumer Reports -- you're totally wasting your money buying 'Pennsoil' for instance when you can buy a local name brand 'good quality'....:D:D

Point is ... I'm a bargain shopper and once I find a 'great price' I keep going back.

So my Oil Changes -- with new Filters -- are $6.50 to $7.00 and the labor is free and I always am guaranteed it's done to perfection :p


Hey Birch - - ya ever feel like your Thread's been over taken ????
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

All, my light is always on - especially the front porch.

"The S&P 500 remains within a clearly defined up trend, and last week's selling on Thursday, which was only the 8th worst day since the March 9th bottom, did little to damper the bullish enthusiasm that has persisted for the past 3 months. The uptick in the 'Dumb Money' indicator and the extremes in the Rydex asset data would suggest continued byuing on the dips. The upward bias in prices remains until the extremes in bullish setiments are unwound."

http://safehaven.com/article-14642.htm
 
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