Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

Okay then.
Note to self, don't take investment advice from Ck0$&heads.
Your wright PM, we need something to hang our hat on.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

don't ya think a guy who has something important to say should have a good haircut before going on TV?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

can anybody else see the picture besides me when i'm logged in and click on it? i put it in an album on this site. there must be a better way?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I need to make $7K in my oceanic today and I will have gained back in one week what I gave up from the last two weeks - that's good work if you can get it. Would like to make that $M before the end of the month from the March lows.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Decided to step in and do a little buying to help Coolhand lift the load. Today I bought: AOS, KRO, STD, TEN, TRN, TRW. There are so many more but I'm in no hurry - will enjoy the bull.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm too busy making money to fart around with BHO politics - I don't have the energy. The VIX is sending me a message for next week - be prepared for a thumping parabolic move to the upside. It'll be a very hot bullish stampede led by the earnings from IBM. Get ready to join the herd or be trampled by the hoofs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm too busy making money to fart around with BHO politics - I don't have the energy. The VIX is sending me a message for next week - be prepared for a thumping parabolic move to the upside. It'll be a very hot bullish stampede led by the earnings from IBM. Get ready to join the herd or be trampled by the hoofs.
Click to expand...

I think you f***ing lucked out today :rolleyes:(pardon my French)


Have a great weekend Birch
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
I'm too busy making money to fart around with BHO politics - I don't have the energy. The VIX is sending me a message for next week - be prepared for a thumping parabolic move to the upside. It'll be a very hot bullish stampede led by the earnings from IBM. Get ready to join the herd or be trampled by the hoofs.
Click to expand...

Birch,

VIX is dropping pretty fast the past couple of days...and now we are getting close to 23. Herd mentality is taking over quickly and next week should present a lot of buyers to drive the bull to some new highs. I wasn't planning on watching the market very closely till late November and letting the CSI make money for me but now...?

You still think the other shoe will drop around the Holidays (or another stimulus for the BHO politics that will effect us) or are you revising it to somewhat earlier now?

-mcq
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

As the psychological 10k level is passed on the DOW, and it propels the market higher ("parabolically?"), how will the VIX behave? Will it decrease or will it increase for a time while more people get over their nervousness? Now that we have a new metric to watch as a signal to the exit door, and it's close to it, might as well discuss it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Warrenlm said:
As the psychological 10k level is passed on the DOW, and it propels the market higher ("parabolically?"), how will the VIX behave? Will it decrease or will it increase for a time while more people get over their nervousness? Now that we have a new metric to watch as a signal to the exit door, and it's close to it, might as well discuss it.
Click to expand...

This is one of the things I have been watching and I believe the VIX will drop as the market moves higher. I am looking at the 21ish mark on the VIX to begin a reallocation but am not certain on the when/how fast this will happen. And even when it hits the 21ish mark there may be plenty of money to be made I just am looking to be conservative.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is trending down and will probably revisit last year's low readings in the 18 to 20 range before this advance has peaked. I've selected the 20 level as my signal to start a gentle DCA process to safety not wanting to leave much on the table by being aggressive. Everyone now is aware that 10% stock market corrections rarely occur in the first year of a bull market - but a 7% would still hurt. All we can do is be aware of historical prescedent. Take a look at the graphs from 2004.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The stock market in 2009 has an 88% correlation to the 2003 market, so any serious correction may not happen until 2010. We are in for the greatest bull market of the decade. Big money will capitulate in the face of a steadily rising market and we will witness one of the largest short squeezes in history. In the 2003-07 bull, it took almost five years before a 10% drop. Fear and panic means you are now unusually prone to acting on a gut feeling, instead of thinking. Earlier bull markets hold lessons for those investors holding money on the sidelines today. The McClellan Summation Index (MCSUM) is still in very strongly in positive territory - this remains a sign of strength historically going back to levels seen on June 17th, 2003. Not to worry about the October-November time period. And as Stickan would say; from a fibonacci stand point it could mean that we now will be trending up for a long time. We could be in for quite another momentum move up.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

We had a rather business friendly administration in 2003.

Today, not so much...

My very uneducated guess is that this market is going to find a sustainment point. A level significantly below that of an earlier time. A discount. Why should the economy boom?

But, would the discout be -57%?

I think not. Maybe -20%. Maybe -15%.

Once normalized I don't expect gains in equities to match risk. For years.

Grabbing all I can now.:p
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Wow,

I finally found the correct VIX chart:

Absolutely amazing chart. I have never learned to read a chart, but some things just kick you in the teeth:nuts:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm not a chart guy, just a newbie that has seen from BT's thread of its importance, so what does it depict?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Rube said:
I'm not a chart guy, just a newbie that has seen from BT's thread of its importance, so what does it depict?
Click to expand...

Wait for someone who can provide good info...

Don't listen to me :p
But, then again, I do have a keyboard:p

Based on the Wikipedia entry the VIX is a future projection of S&P market moves (volatility).

I don't think it identifies an up or a down market. It seems to be a 30 day projection of expected market change (annualized). So, it will boom in either break outs or break downs. And, it seems to pre-date the moves a bit.

So, if I am reading things right, BT just wants a nice and smooth market.

An index of 15 seems about normal. We are at 24.

Mid October, mid November, and mid March were all VIX booms. Mid October was a ridiculous 80. The center of the .dot com boom reached 44. Those peaks proved very volatile.
 
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