Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"If the Fed/Treasury/Administration make good on their promises of borrowing, printing, and guaranteeing (forward liabilities) we're talking about roughly $13 trillion dollars here. Make no mmistake about it, there simply is no precedent at all in the entirety of U.S. experience for this type of stimulus as a percentage of GDP being thrown at the financial sector, credit markets, economy and financial markets. Will it have a positive impact on both the economy and financial markets for a time, both in real terms and perceptually. Without question."

http://www.financialsense.com Place Your Wagers by Brian Pretti 6/5/09

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"If the Fed/Treasury/Administration make good on their promises of borrowing, printing, and guaranteeing (forward liabilities) we're talking about roughly $13 trillion dollars here. Make no mmistake about it, there simply is no precedent at all in the entirety of U.S. experience for this type of stimulus as a percentage of GDP being thrown at the financial sector, credit markets, economy and financial markets. Will it have a positive impact on both the economy and financial markets for a time, both in real terms and perceptually. Without question."

http://www.financialsense.com Place Your Wagers by Brian Pretti 6/5/09

Birch,

While I think it is likely (because of ideological beliefs) that the Federal Gubmint will spend every dime they pulled out of their plastic cash advance card, I think it unlikely that the FED will continue dumping cash from the helicopter once they are confident we out of the panic crash.

Simply, the FED will not spend, print, or buy to the $13 Trillion dollar high point everybody yaks about.

They will simply stop. Most likely with no fanfare.

Probably happening as I type.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm staying fully long until the world ends - we could ramp up into a huge blow-off upwards in stock prices at any moment. I think an unthinkable run of the SPX from 900 to 1300 would be tremendous for increasing the calamity of both fear and greed. This market is wide open and fully ready to surprise the consensus of continued gloom and doomers. Let the buying stampede begin in a panic fashion starting Monday. The hedge funds are ready to start buying aggressively - they usually buy during a market rebound and need to play some serious catchup if they want to be marketable to new cash. The stoic hoofhearted are going to have their day - real soon. So it feels like 1982 - I was there for that ride and many missed the first three months because of nonbelief - not me I caught the very first day and rode the thunder all the way. There is nothing more exhilarating than riding a bull market and making capital appreciation.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm staying fully long until the world ends - we could ramp up into a huge blow-off upwards in stock prices at any moment. I think an unthinkable run of the SPX from 900 to 1300 would be tremendous for increasing the calamity of both fear and greed. This market is wide open and fully ready to surprise the consensus of continued gloom and doomers. Let the buying stampede begin in a panic fashion starting Monday. The hedge funds are ready to start buying aggressively - they usually buy during a market rebound and need to play some serious catchup if they want to be marketable to new cash. The stoic hoofhearted are going to have their day - real soon. So it feels like 1982 - I was there for that ride and many missed the first three months because of nonbelief - not me I caught the very first day and rode the thunder all the way. There is nothing more exhilarating than riding a bull market and making capital appreciation.

Birch,

Reagan was President in 1982.
Obama is President in 2009.
Bit of difference there, eh.

And, my bet (completely unresearched as of right now) is that this single year of gubmint crack addict borrowing exceeds the entire eight years of inflation adjusted deficit for the Reagan era.

That is a bit of difference, eh.

And, Obama doesn’t seem to be letting up…

So, to me, this isn’t a ‘Back to the Future’ sequel. I’ll ride my pig till she drops, but when I look at her from atop my perch I know she ain’t no bull. Trillions of peso dollars can make a mighty fast pig. But, a pig she is!!!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Whether this turns out to be a rally in an ongoing bear market, or a new bull market, remains to be seen (we are leaving that "call" to Dow Theory); but, if stocks don't correct soon I think you will see another leg to the upside that will be larger than most expect despite my wrong-footed Coolhand cautious stance for the past month. Therefore, we continue to think it is a mistake to get too bearish right here. Cautious yes, but bearish no."

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well the hoofhearted Birchtree oceanic account is still kicking. Now at week 13 from the March 6th bottom we are up $482K. I gave back $112K at the end of week 10 and gained back $115K by the end of week 13. Now the push will be to get through the $500K mark and beyond. I think that happens by the end of this week. By the end of June I'll be buying stock again to participate in the new bull market rather than being idle. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Oh, Oh, skunks chasing bears right now - how neat. Boy you don't know how lucky you are - we're back, back, back, back in the USSR.

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

well keep on a truckin ,s& I needs some more beans:embarrest::laugh:

 

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

finally a little SNORT full

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everything I've read today on the net is still gloom and doom - that's just what this market needs to continue to scare people away. Leave'em at the station - who really cares anyway. The bullish momentum continues and I'm staying long for the ride higher. Profitability resides in the ride ahead and I don;t want to miss a single point. With the NYSE breadth MCSUM close to +1200 any and all corrections will be very mild so one has to take the hits and keep on investing. I'm really enjoying this months dividend reinvestments with some good pricing - not as good as March but I can't have everything go my way. Unless we do get some kind of correction soon the $10 range on the C fund will be gone forever - but that's progress.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everything I've read today on the net is still gloom and doom - that's just what this market needs to continue to scare people away. Leave'em at the station - who really cares anyway. The bullish momentum continues and I'm staying long for the ride higher. Profitability resides in the ride ahead and I don;t want to miss a single point. With the NYSE breadth MCSUM close to +1200 any and all corrections will be very mild so one has to take the hits and keep on investing. I'm really enjoying this months dividend reinvestments with some good pricing - not as good as March but I can't have everything go my way. Unless we do get some kind of correction soon the $10 range on the C fund will be gone forever - but that's progress.

Bman
I believe the C is the most voital of all markets fund due exposure to the Finanicals, I fund is the way for the massive gain you speak of, I see were both at 30% on the tracker in I fund with your greater amount (70%) in C while mine is lilly pad G (70) using your buy on the dips, i will decrease my G to below 40% by the end of July. If I was in C I would do the same.

Good luck to both of us

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

PDip,

Your plan is a good one, but the 'Lords of the TSP' fund (the governors) limit your trades to anything other than G to two.

You have already used your two 'forward' trades. To move more assets into F/C/S/I/L you will have to implement SqualeBear's '<1% IFT'. You can basically round up your assets in the F/C/S/I/L daily. But, regretfully, you have to have some assets in them to round em up.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It has become more evident lately that many of our past gloom and doomers have gently faded back into the scraggley brush - they will be missed. It's nice to see lower Libor lending rates that are back to their historical ranges. Waiting again on the dip buyers today. I think I'll go with PDip instead of chipdip - it sounds better.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This market feels like a coiled spring ready to break out past over head resistance - there is simply too much liquidity available looking for a home. They all know you have to be in to win and after missing the last 40% of gains they must buy. These program trades will continue to force money into the market. We could open up big any day and just keep going creating a buying panic - wouldn't that be special. Snort. The golden cross is on the way and so is the Dow Theory buy signal - get in ahead of all the publicity.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This could easily be a 200 point Dow day - hesitation for the lily padders is getting expensive and that's exactly what the bull wants. Are we in a new cyclical bull market. Is this the second cyclical bull market of this decade? Nah, this is simply a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market and will last years. Yesterday with the market down 24 points my oceanic account gained $300 - that's what diversification does.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This could easily be a 200 point Dow day - hesitation for the lily padders is getting expensive and that's exactly what the bull wants. Are we in a new cyclical bull market. Is this the second cyclical bull market of this decade? Nah, this is simply a continuation of the 1982 mega trend secular bull market and will last years. Yesterday with the market down 24 points my oceanic account gained $300 - that's what diversification does.

Birch,

My 'Mighty Fast Pig' is an omnivore.

She eats meat, but she sure likes the green grub we’ve been chowing on for the last two/three months. Her recent diet of green shoots sure makes her regular. She is a happy pig. I am a happy rider. :nuts:

It’s mighty nice of the Lilly Ponders to not overgraze the fields.

Very environmentally conscious.

Chomp, chomp.

Yummy.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is now at 27.32 down 1.14 so far today. How long will it take to get to 20? We should be at SPX of 1200 by then.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm waiting on the last hour sling shot move to push us deep into the green. I have plenty of sweet smelling bull manure to spare if anyone needs a wheel barrow load dropped off on the front porch.

 

[Viva_La_Migra]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I have plenty of sweet smelling bull manure to spare if anyone needs a wheel barrow load dropped off on the front porch.

That's okay, you spread enough bull**it here!:nuts:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I had another twelve dividend reinvestments due today so the close we had was actually perfect - why pay too much for stock if it's not necessary. Tomorrow could be the make up day as the bigger bang takes hold. Sure glad I own my share of energy stocks - they saved the day today.