Birchtree's Account Talk

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just dollar cost averaged into a little more I fund with the hope of lower prices. However, there has been no overt technical damage yet to the downside. It would be nice to have a 9 to 1 upside volume to reconfirm the uptrend which remains intact. Tomorrow could easily be a big bull manure day. I really don't think we are headed lower - but just in case I'd like some more I fund while I enjoy the pain. Don't ever wish me good luck - wish me more pain. I need the pain to keep me on my cutting edge especially when I'm buying undervalued stocks. There are still so many dull wall flowers that need attention.

I see what you see Bman the I fund has not trended has low some will soon find the Dollar will take a BIG HAIR CUT our I fund dollars will spend nicely the I fund post 911 was 10.30 at its inseption its below 15 today, its dirt cheap Im sad im all out of ITF

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

After 3 months of snail paced gains I finally got fed up. Over and over I (and many others) kept saying this can't last!! We are long overdue for a huge drop ..... and week after week and month after month it never happened.

So we may be in for a huge crash - things continue to look terrible if you're looking for any evidence to support safety. But guess what?? No one knows for sure when it's going to happen and so for now I'll take my chances.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I posted another Adam Hamilton article a few posts back - hope you saw it.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

I posted another Adam Hamilton article a few posts back - hope you saw it.

Thanks Birch - I didn't see it but honestly appreciate it.

My initial assesssment of Adam was incredibly outstanding - and very few have impressed me to that degree.

I should have simply abandoned my TSP investments but was way too caught up in the horse s*** thinking that the Markets are supposed to play by my perceived 'logic' and the 'logic' that many I consider very smart on this MB also seem to fall into.

I'm ready to break - if need be - but at this point I'm simply taking my chances and whatever happens I'll deal with it. Right now there is a good chance I can end the year with my 2007 end (or 2008 beginning amount) - so I'll simply dismiss 2008 as insignificant and continue on as usual.

I'm still getting 30 MPG in the 2000 Focus with 186,000 miles and plan to drive it on to 300,000 or as long as it holds up.

We are incredibly blessed Birch - and some of my distant relatives are taking a toll from all this mess. This is one time you should really be thankful for holding firm and planning for the long run.

BTW - I thought about you quite a bit over the vacation. Birch trees all over the place and saw a huge Birch Canoe and all kinds of stuff the Indians used it for.

Later dude

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm reminded again that bull markets do not like company, the market will do everything it can to make the majority gun shy and keep the bears from recognizing the prevailing trend. The A/D line is not diverting, and its very rare the price will top without A/D divergence. Hesitation in this climate can be costly. Portfolio managers and TSPers warn of a possible additional leg down in the markets that should keep investors from going all-in before more tangible signs of a true rebound occur. I'm long and staying strong. Liquidity is the difference between what could be a deep correction and what is just an emotional reaction. When the MCSUM is at high levels as it is at the current time (+1200), it's very difficult for the market to move in the opposite direction with any kind of energy. Snort. Big bull markets always find a way to keep you frightened and out. Big bull markets are devils with no conscience - to get in you have to close your eyes, and just do it. Not easy for sure. I'm so glad I bought the bottoms last fall.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It does look like I may be fortunate enough to collect one more $10 range C fund price before that range is relagated to history. My last price was $11 even - so one more buy is pleasant before heading into the $11 and $12 range - we skipped these targets on the way down. But then we could just as easily skip them on the way back up. I firmly believe there is a huge liquidity driven cyclical bull on the horizon that will last for several years - and no we won't test the March 9th lows. Let the bystanders keep waiting for their better entry points.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This rally can be the beginning of a new bull market. Or it could be a reaction in a longer term bear market. There is little in the chart to suggest one or the other. Where we are now, at near the mid 900's has been an area where there has been a lot of action in the index over the last couple of decades. If the index were to clear this area, then that would be a pretty strong indicator that the shorter term trend has changed to a series of higher highs and higher lows - a new bull market. But only time will resolve that issue." Get ready for more lift.

http://financialsense.com S&P 500 Long, Medium. and Short Term by Martin Goldberg

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Triple-Witching Day in Equity Markets". http://safehaven.com/article-13674.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I believe in the continuation of the mega trend secular bull market that began in 1982 and I think there's a mighty third phase coming. The planet is up to its neck in fiat money, and once the third phase of the bull market starts cranking up, this money will want to be in stocks. It's going to be the greatest speculative stock market explosion the world has ever seen. But of course, being wrong comes with the franchise of an activity whose outcome depends on an unknown future. I find it's best to remain cool and collected regarding this market.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This rally can be the beginning of a new bull market.

That's what I'm counting on.

I've lost a tag since getting back in the game - but being in the game is a whole lot more FUN than staying on the sidelines.

Whatever huge CRASH many were saying is 'unavoidable' and all the more 'the New Lows' are not taking place - which makes staying in the game a thousand times more enjoyable. So we'll hope for the best.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As Adam Hamilton would say: "We are due for a huge cyclical bull that should run for several years, or so. The post panic reversion force will probably make the cyclical bull much bigger and faster than normal. Stocks are rallying simply because they were far too radically oversold in the stock panic." It looks like a got a $10 range price on the C fund - how many more will I get. Not many I think - we'll be deep in the $11 range in the next two weeks.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As Adam Hamilton would say...

Very few are as 'gifted' - I mean he is really something esle.

So are you Birch and I really appreciate your note to Squale.



Of course the Game is a thousand times better when you're winning. I love it - I took a chance - it seemed crazy but hey

ya got to be in to win - screw the G World.

Well have a good weekend; I'm heading out.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"In the 2007-2009 bear market, markets came down rapidly with little in the way of countertrend moves, which means it is possible a similar situation may occur on the way backup - a rapid climb with little in the way of significant countertrend moves (which is what has happened so far during this rally). It is possible those who those who wait for a significant correction, will only get that opportunity from much higher levels. A significant correction is coming - the question is from what levels (now or later)." The technical principle of symmetry would suggest that the recovery will mirror the fall - and I'm prepared in case that happens. It will lift all my boats. We've now had two weeks to catch our breath before the next meltup starts. If you are still on the lily pad protect your necks from strain because the angle of ascent will be steep.

http://[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ciovacco/2009/0619.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My oceanic account has finally arrived at Bank of America Investments with all my positions. As it stands currently I have buying power of $1,116,745.23. This money can either wreck my life or build my future - I suspect I'll be spending most of it rather soon. I don't want to miss the next 60% move and now is the time to really get bulled up considering all I have done since December is reinvest my dividends and lay low while the market rallied. So if we trend a little lower that would be good from a lower pricing point - there is just so much to buy. I got my last C fund at $10.79 - now we move into the next range. So now any further hesitation will only get more expensive - the SPX move over the 200-day is the mark of a new bull market and I'm fully prepared to participate. One of the themes of Jupiter and Neptune conjunction is no boundaries. Anything and everything goes. We could have a huge blow-off upwards in stock prices.

 

[KevinD]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I wish you the best of luck!

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I really appreciate your note to Squale.
Screw the G World. Well have a good weekend; I'm heading out.

Not too shabby for a rich guy (Birch's note to Squale)

Don't mind me, I'm simply jealous of anyone who has
more money then me ! :nuts: Remember, ya can't win if
you don't play ! But don't let that blind you to the
fact that you can also Lose if you play. Nobody is
right 100% of the time. Pssst, not even Squalebear.
(don't tell anyone). :nuts: One day can kill ya and one day
can vindicate you. Birch has been killed and vindicated
more times then the Fed had the need to buy ink in
2009 alone. :nuts: Anyway, this attempt at humor has
run out of gas. You both are the best !

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Things are still tenuous but the market is NOT acting in a fashion that suggests anything devastating to the down side is upon us any time soon. Just because we've had some selling and the market is weaving its way up and down does not mean things are about to fall apart. To anticipate a crash down when there's nothing in the charts suggesting such is just ridiculous. When we lose the 50 day EMA (8383) then you can say with certainty that we have flipped from a buy signal to a sell signal. Not a moment before, regardless of what you may think things look like."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11483.html

 

[coolhand]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I certainly agree that we are not looking to crash. I'm thinking we melt down instead. Would not be surprised to see some significant strength later this week.

 

[steveg]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch --

I looked at today's down day on the markets, and I was thinking about you, and for some reason I remembered a conversation we had awhile back. In it, you said:

Steveg,

Let's play a game if you will. You hold your position of 84G and we'll see how long it takes me to achieve your position and then pass you in the turtle lane. I bet I'm there by June 15th. Keep your eyes on the VIX - we have now trended lower than trend line support at 40. All the professionals watch this indicator - and if it weakens further will we have an assult on the January high of 943.85. If the Hoofy horns take that level out then the 200d MA at 1006 will be next and it could happen in dramatic fashion. I'll be waiting for you to jump aboard this train but you may have to do it from an overpass.

You said this on April 5. I disagreed with you, and here's what I said...

I AM willing to re-evaluate both of our positions (% gained or lost) June 15. I am cheering for you, I really am. I want you to make money. For the purposes of this game, however, I hope you are up big, but I'm up just a little, tiny bit bigger! :toung:

Well, I forgot to check June 15, but I did check today. Though it was a down day, I'm still up on you! For the year, I'm +7.83%; since I joined TSPTALK I'm up 6.06%. You are indeed up big from April 5th, but, like I had hoped for the purposes of the "game," I am up bigger!!

Having said that, you were actually closer than I was in predicting the short-term direction, since you felt we'd reach at least the January high of 943 SPX -- and we did. I said I thought we'd start the downturn before that -- we didn't.

But, has the downturn finally begun? Of COURSE you won't think so, but in any case, it IS coming, IMO. It's gonna get ugly; if not soon, then I have to believe it begins before the end of the year...

Steve

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Some call you Wa'tac'pichia - "Man with Iron Stomach"

Others call you Baz'Tiah'Beoa - "One of Unfailing Wisdom"


They call me Wishy Washy :worried: because my stomach turns and I'd rather lose a little than lose it all. Plus my move will guarantee no chance of recovery - when the Markets take off.

There is a difference between us my friend - but I'm cool for now.