Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Looks Like a Stocks Bull Market - If you approach the current market with an open mind, and with a sense of history, it is nearly impossible to ignore the almost countless reasons to accept the possibility a new bull market has started - one that could last longer and go further than most can even imagine. Knowing what we know, it is prudent to continue to deploy capital as long as conditions remain favorable."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11274.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

If anyone is interested in looking at 1995, 1996, 1997, and 1998 - take a look at the previous link. This could be the direction of the current new bull market. I'm anticipating a margin loan of over $1M to start some serious buying in July. This week however I need to make $12K today to be ahead $500K on week #14 from the March lows. I thought I had it all locked up yesterday until the profit takers stepped up. Patience will and has been rewarding. Remember the bull market needs to have denial and we still got plenty of that.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yup, cyclical bulls within secular bulls are awesome beasts. Hedge Fund Research estimates that the number of hedge funds peaked at 7,634 in 2007. Since then, a net 990 funds have disappeared. If they don't get on board this train the shakeout this year could again be brutal. You have to be in to win. The U.S. government alone has allocated $11.4 trillion to direct and indirect stimulus in the past two years, of which about $2.4 trillion has been spent. A lot of this money will find its way into the markets - this will create a melt up in demand fueled by the growing supply of money. I think the next bubble could be in the S&P 500 type stocks - pushing all the way back past 1550 into the 1700 zone by the end of the year. Yes my friends the world is going to reflate at any cost. The market will probably correct at some point but not anytime soon. Monday could be a bottle rocket day for sure - the base platform has been built over the last nine trading days and the money supply continues to grow providing the power.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"While the stock market has rallied nicely since bottoming on March 9th, the economy continues to struggle. The length of the current recession (now in its 18th month) is above average and the longest recession since the Great Depression."

http://www.chartoftheday.com/20090612.htm?T

The SPX is getting ready to break the longer term declining tops line. As strange as this sounds, over the last six decades, it turns out, the stock market on average has performed better when the nation's unemployment rate was higher than when it was lower. Despite it all, very few people believe this rally can last. And it's because there are still so very few people getting in on this rally, odds are it won't end very soon. I'm still thinking this bull market will launch the SPX right back up to 1300 in a short time to mirror the decline seen last year but in the opposite direction.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We have been recommending for several years, that within whatever equity allocation you may have, if you are a long-term investor not currently or soon living through withdrawals from your portfolio, you should consider substantially over-weighting emerging markets and under-weighting developed markets. We have no idea whetherr stock markets are likely to retrench from here, and if they do, emerging markets would probably fall harder as they have risen more."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11313.html

The market will tend to move in ways that confound the consensus. The market didn't pause much on the way down, so why should one expect it to pause on the way up. The technical principle of symmetry would suggest that the recovery will mirror the fall. I think the melt-up is going to really kick into high gear real soon. This rally is certainly shaping up to be extremely powerful and will not provide much opportunity for the lily padders to get in at lower prices. There has been much said about the dumb money being wrong - not always the case my friends. It does take bulls to run a bull market - and in a bull market such a divergence will be of no consequence - that's straight from Ferdinand. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Nothing bearish in place yet from strictly a price perspective. We are still easily holding key support and until that goes, the bears can talk about gloom and doom all they want but they have nothing for which to back up that talk. The bears don't have much of a chance to take this market down and keep it down with a VIX reading this low. The lower it drifts away from 30 and the longer it does so, the harder it's going to be for the bears to make the move down for the market. The VIX will eventually start to move lower and the bears will have to endure more pain as the market goes higher, overbought and negative divergences aside."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11320.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

These one day wonders to the downside are exactly what a strong rally requires with rising lows in place. The one-day corrections we have had since March 9th will provide that type of developing support. It's a good day for dividend reinvestments. I don't think we'll see much of a negative follow through for tomorrow. Staying strong and long.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

hanging in there, riding it to the reset low or whatever it will be called, but ill be there when it starts back up though!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
These one day wonders to the downside are exactly what a strong rally requires with rising lows in place. The one-day corrections we have had since March 9th will provide that type of developing support. It's a good day for dividend reinvestments. I don't think we'll see much of a negative follow through for tomorrow. Staying strong and long.
Click to expand...

Thanks Birch, its always good to have your voice in the back of my head when I start to think sideways! Staying long!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Nothing bearish in place yet from strictly a price perspective. We are still easily holding key support and until that goes, the bears can talk about gloom and doom all they want but they have nothing for which to back up that talk. The bears don't have much of a chance to take this market down and keep it down with a VIX reading this low. The lower it drifts away from 30 and the longer it does so, the harder it's going to be for the bears to make the move down for the market. The VIX will eventually start to move lower and the bears will have to endure more pain as the market goes higher, overbought and negative divergences aside."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article11320.html
Click to expand...

Bman,


Pschiffdicpal is snorting I :=iiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiii easy money:D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Richard Russell, veteran writer of the daily Dow Theory Letters, commented on Monday: I'm of the opinion that this bear market rally is in the process of topping out. When a counter-trend rally tops out within an ongoing primary bear market, the odds are that the stock market will break to new lows during the period ahead. That means that the stock market will break below its March 9 lows in coming weeks. A violation of the March 9 lows would be a shocker to most investors, and it would be a forecast of an even worse economy coming up."

http://www.marketoracle.couk/Article11362.html

I have seventeen dividends due today so a little more weakness is fine - I'd rather buy more shares at a lower price when the opportunity is presented. If you are ahead of me on the tracker this could be a time to go to safety and give me a chance to move up to at least catch Steadygain. So bring on the pain - it's tolerable. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"One thing to watch for in the stock market is a shift toward higher quality stocks. During the early stages of the rally, money went after the cheap stocks. Now that the rally seems to be maturing, investors may begin to take profits in the fast climbing stocks and re-invest in better quakity stocks." Like the C fund.

http://safehaven.com/article-13640.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just dollar cost averaged into a little more I fund with the hope of lower prices. However, there has been no overt technical damage yet to the downside. It would be nice to have a 9 to 1 upside volume to reconfirm the uptrend which remains intact. Tomorrow could easily be a big bull manure day. I really don't think we are headed lower - but just in case I'd like some more I fund while I enjoy the pain. Don't ever wish me good luck - wish me more pain. I need the pain to keep me on my cutting edge especially when I'm buying undervalued stocks. There are still so many dull wall flowers that need attention.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

KevinD said:
http://garyscommonsense.blogspot.com/2009/06/strong-hand-weak-hand.html
Click to expand...

A good article and this is pretty much what Birch preaches. My only problem with this article is it depends how much you have invested in the market. If you have 500K invested and you lose 30%, that is a nice chunk of change, but you still have 350K to help you recover. But if you only have 100K and lose 30% your 70K account will not help you recover as quickly and you are much closer to losing everything.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

nasa1974 said:
A good article and this is pretty much what Birch preaches. My only problem with this article is it depends how much you have invested in the market. If you have 500K invested and you lose 30%, that is a nice chunk of change, but you still have 350K to help you recover. But if you only have 100K and lose 30% your 70K account will not help you recover as quickly and you are much closer to losing everything.
Click to expand...

:) It would be nice to be a Birch preacher, :suspicious: but I can't shake my fear of continual losses. Especially when the mid-summer blues are just starting. :mad:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

KevinD,

Thanks for that good read. I'm reminded that the first law of investing is that it takes money to make money - and getting the initial money is the hard part. For some of us it has taken years to build positions. I own 321 individual stocks and there was no way I was going to be forced out of the market during our last lows and as a result have started to recover nicely off this bottom. I took a better than $1M haircut devaluation and held my asset base and invested another $772K during the bottom process - so I'm already locked into some nice profits and will not take those profits until much later. I'm planning on going to a margin account that will provide more buying power without selling anything - and I'm so ready to start buying via DCAing and build my positions further. It's so much easier to buy when there is already a profit in a position. But I'll be putting another $1M to work shortly - this is a generational bull market that will offer plenty of potential to leave a legacy and spend some profits.
 
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