Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Financial services ETF hits bullish threshold. The XLF at $12.33 represents a doubling of its value since the exchange-traded fund dipped to an intraday low below $6 March 6th. A bullish signal for the market at large." I don't own the XLF, but I do own a lot of stocks that comprise this particular ETF.

http://www.marketwatch.com/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think this market will push the Dow to the 200 day at 8780 over the next two hours - remember we now have two new Dow members that will help that push. The Dow only has 300 more points and the Transports only have 400 more points to go before a Dow Theory buy signal kicks in - that will bring out mom and pop.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

You are probably correct. (2PM we shall see)
If Mom and Pop come out I'm in.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

On days like this how I long for a 70 point kick in the SPX. If we mirror the drop from September on the way back up it's very possible, especially with all the cash looking for a home. I just have to remind myself that patience is a virtue and the wait will be profitable.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
I don't think we have two new Dow members until Monday the 8th. And I am not entirely convinced that helps us anyway. Strategically, Citi and GM had fallen as far as they could...even going to zero wasn't going to move the average much, but now we get two companies with stock prices over/around $20 which gives them much more room to pull the average down. I think Mom and Pop are waiting for that stiff pullback/test to hop on the train....they may be waiting and waiting....leaving it to the institutions.
C
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Goldman is saying the jobs report may be better than anticipation - that could ignite a strong rally. I'm ready for a 9,000 Dow and a 1000 SPX. If euphoria and hope sweep the investment community, everyone jumps on the rocket and the sky is the limit. As I've previously posted: The market didn't pause much on the way down, so why should one expect it to pause on the way up. The technical principle of symmetry would suggest that the recovery will mirror the fall. Another meltup leg could be on the way.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Financial services ETF hits bullish threshold. The XLF at $12.33 represents a doubling of its value since the exchange-traded fund dipped to an intraday low below $6 March 6th. ...http://www.marketwatch.com/
Click to expand...

And to think I bought FAS (ultra-financial ETF, for those of you unfamiliar with it) at $4 and sold it at $4.50 thinking I did well. And it closed today at $10.52. :rolleyes: I hate financial stocks. :toung:

Lady
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm going to start a small business selling my home brand of sticky pants to help members hold their positions just a little longer. Nnuut will be awarded a free pair.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Stickey Pants, well I've never had them I don't think, but if you have and you think I need them send me a pair! I'll IM you my address, make them a medium.
Thanks Daddy BigBucks!:D
I Have these!!!:laugh: copy_of_dancinman4.gif
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Stock Market is a Fool's Paradise. Most investors were absolutely crushed last year. There are hundreds of thousands of investors thinking, 'Sure inflation is coming. And I'll essentially be losing 6% a year in real terms. But hey, that's a lot better than 45%.' But still, the safety and security of not having the fear of having to open the monthly brokerage account statement is a welcome relief to many." If the market continues to rally, greed may start winning out over fear of loss (possibly replaced by the fear of missing out).

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article11109.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"The Stock Market is a Fool's Paradise. Most investors were absolutely crushed last year. There are hundreds of thousands of investors thinking, 'Sure inflation is coming. And I'll essentially be losing 6% a year in real terms. But hey, that's a lot better than 45%.' But still, the safety and security of not having the fear of having to open the monthly brokerage account statement is a welcome relief to many." If the market continues to rally, greed may start winning out over fear of loss (possibly replaced by the fear of missing out).

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article11109.html
Click to expand...

Until today, I had not opened my ETRADE statements for the last three month for fear of looking at them. My accounts are looking a whole lot better now.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
"Financial services ETF hits bullish threshold. The XLF at $12.33 represents a doubling of its value since the exchange-traded fund dipped to an intraday low below $6 March 6th. A bullish signal for the market at large." I don't own the XLF, but I do own a lot of stocks that comprise this particular ETF.

http://www.marketwatch.com/
Click to expand...

Hey Bman,

It is nice for Financial services ETF having the Gov help Financial LIE about profits....

By: Edmund L. Andrews, The New York Times | 04 Jun 2009 | 01:02 PM ET

In addition, financial regulators relaxed the so-called mark-to-market rules, making it easier for bank holding companies to refrain from writing down the value of assets for which there is no market. That change allowed many big banks to report higher profits, and thus higher capital, for the first quarter of this year.

But some analysts said the banks’ reluctance to clean up their balance sheets meant they were merely postponing their day of reckoning.:worried: Indeed, some analysts said government policies had made it easier for banks to gloss over their bad loans.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nice NFP numbers - time to buckle up for the anticipated blast off. I really would like to see a 400 point Dow gain or a 70 point SPX gain. The money is there if the fear level is high enough.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"At the height of the stock panic in late November, the flagship S&P 500 stock index had plunged 49% year to date. Fully 2/3rd of this decline happened in the 9 weeks leading into the panic lows." This article is really about coming inflation.

http://safehaven.com/article-13530.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The buy signal from the Dow Theory kicks in at DJIA at 9034.69 and DJTA at 3717.26 - wait on it. In my view the risk of not being in this market now exceeds the magnitude of the risk of being in the market. It's now even more apparent that the economic climate is being transformed from bleak to bullish at one of the most rapid rates ever - come Monday some of the massive liquidity waiting on the sidelines will ignite the after burners. Don't be surprised on the run from 900 to 1300 before the end of summer - Segal says 1380 is fair value on the SPX. I'm reminded that those few who made the painful decision to buy into the pullbacks or bottoms are appropriately rewarded - the financial markets always rally dramatically following any true bottom, so that those who panicked on the way down are punished rather than rewarded.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I got my first $11.00 C fund price in over five years - how sweet that is. You new members just don't know how lucky your are to get these golden prices - providing you are buying. The dollar goes a lot further at $11 than $15, $16, or $17 - accumulate as many shares as you can digest. Many believe the move over the SPX 200-day moving average is the mark of a new bull market. I was all wound up today for a big bang move up on the good NFP numbers, but will have to wait until Monday. I still made good money on the week though in both of my accounts.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

After a big jump Monday and smaller gains that followed, the Dow was up 3.1% for the week. It was the Dow's 11th weekly gain in the last 13 and its 32% gain in that span represents the best 13-week period since late 1982. That my friends was the beginning of the mega trend secular bull market that ran until 2000. We've now experienced two cyclical bear markets and are now ready for the secular bull to ramp the offensive. Ah the sweet smell of superlative bull manure creates a delight for profit potential. Will the market correlate to the March 2003 retest - perhaps but I think from a much higher level. We need to get all those hedge funds back into the game first and they are returning. In May hedge funds posted their strongest monthly gains since February 2000. After historical lows in 2008, risk appetite has quickly returned over the last eight weeks - they are simply willing to chase the upward momentum and pay higher prices. Good for them. Are we starting a new bull leg - my answer is yes and it will be exuberant to the upside.
 
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