Birchtree's Account Talk

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

Perhaps I should send you a pair of my special sticky pants like Norm received. At the end of the month I'll be on a campaign to acquire more income via more stock purchases. I'm looking at $1M to spend that should help propel me into the money. Gotta keep those interest rates low though. BAC will provide me with 30 free trades a month and then charge $7 per trade after that.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

Perhaps I should send you a pair of my special sticky pants like Norm received. At the end of the month I'll be on a campaign to acquire more income via more stock purchases. I'm looking at $1M to spend that should help propel me into the money. Gotta keep those interest rates low though. BAC will provide me with 30 free trades a month and then charge $7 per trade after that.
Yeah Yeah, me and my STICKY PANTS are losing our BUTT!!:nuts:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm looking at $1M to spend.

BAC will provide me with 30 free trades a month and

then charge $7 per trade after that.


In my Active Trading Days - I never had it that good

Was trading around $600K; but always a set % buying and selling

Dealing with $1M - even breaking that down to 50K x 30 would have been very costly for me.

So compared to my Trading Days - you are saving thousands :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Norm,

You'll be pleasantly surprised how fast you are going to come up off the bottom. I suspect we will rally strongly today and the rest of the week.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Norm,

You'll be pleasantly surprised how fast you are going to come up off the bottom. I suspect we will rally strongly today and the rest of the week.
I'll take you up on that prediction, I quit making predictions cause I hate being wrong!:cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

When I begin to play the margin game any market gains will further add to more buying power - it's basically pyramiding the gains with borrowed money. The margin interest is going to be tax deductable and help offset my dividend income for taxes. I plan to DCA into my existing positions as time goes taking my time - no hurry here, just discipline. I could end up several $M more in long market value before the year ends. Then I take my North Carolina land money back. I believe we are due for a huge cyclical bull that will be liquidity driven and provide the next asset bubble. It's all in the preparation. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I plan to DCA into my existing positions as time goes taking my time - no hurry here, just discipline.

You're definately doing the right thing !!

Like I said:
"Man with Iron Stomach"
"One of Unfailing Wisdom"


Birch,
I live with the most 'ultra conservative' I've ever met. I met her while still in 'Active Duty' status starting college in persuit of the Medical Field. While I'm in ETS Status - within a day or two of leaving we had the Annual Physical Training Exercises (which I could have omitted) but I lived and breathed that stuff to the Max - so gave it 200% (mainly to push everyone else and show em' all how it should be done). Anyway came in 2nd overall.

So I had to do a 'Total Reversal' - go from one mindset to something compleley the opposite and keep persuding this Man of Peace; Man of Love; Gentle, Warm, Spiritual Disposition. I seriously doubt I could have done it without her - and she alone could have given me Sarah, Emily, and Carrie.

So in the LONG RUN - I've got to slam the breaks on for her sake. Despite 2008 I'm still doing OK but the TSP has to be something I manage largely with her in mind so I have no other choice but limit the losses even (and mainly) if that means essentially bringing the Gains to a bare minimum.

Just between us - I got back in the game mainly because I'd been out so long and got bored of G Fund. I felt the overwhelingly odds were 'I'd Lose' - but took the chance in hopes of kind of poking fun at the others (above me that were still in G).

I won't stay in G forever - but I'm leary about future events and for me it's better to chill for awhile.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady,

When I begin to play the margin game any market gains will further add to more buying power - it's basically pyramiding the gains with borrowed money. The margin interest is going to be tax deductable and help offset my dividend income for taxes. I plan to DCA into my existing positions as time goes taking my time - no hurry here, just discipline. I could end up several $M more in long market value before the year ends. Then I take my North Carolina land money back. I believe we are due for a huge cyclical bull that will be liquidity driven and provide the next asset bubble. It's all in the preparation. Snort.

Margin: Destroy your capital twice as fast!
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

First margin is earned. It is not a gift. Using leverage appropriately should be rather rewarding especially if we are in an ongoing bull market. Gains on top of gains add to more buying power - but of course it can be dangerous. I suspect the next leg of the bull will provide great opportunity to gain profits. It's the number of shares that I'm after - the gains will arrive on their own. I'll be in deep enough so that my interest rate charge will be 3% - where else can I get that kind of rate and leverage up the portfolio. It's the next 60% bulllish move I'm going to maximize. Any backups should be mild like the last two weeks. I'm trying to reach the Caymanbrac 12 league. Be in to win.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Doug Kass has been saying: "A sideways correction would be intermediate-term healthy in the sense of correcting an overbought from the March lows and will likely presage a move higher in the autum."
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Doug Kass has been saying: "A sideways correction would be intermediate-term healthy in the sense of correcting an overbought from the March lows and will likely presage a move higher in the autum."

I sometimes wonder whatever happened to that guy "Whimpy" that posted a few years back?? Wasnt he a Kass fan?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Whimpy was only a short term drive by shooter - the man drove me nuts with his totalitarian ideas. You must go back a ways if you remember him. Good to have you drop by.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We think it might just rhyme this summer with 2003 as the equity markets trade sideways as investors contemplate whether the improving numbers are ephemeral or for real. Our guess is this won't be figured out by the markets until the late summer. Admittedly, it is difficult to envision a V shaped recovery, even though the history of recessions is that the sharper the downturn the more vigorous the upturn." Let's see if Oracle will help the market.

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch - there are 2 Main Factors we need to consider at this point

1. Moving up too fast will cause 'wind burn' due to resistence against our skin

2. The further up you go - the more susceptible you are to sunburn - air is thinner


I WOULD STRONGLY ADVISE 'HIGH FACTOR SUNSCREEN' OVER THE SHORT TERM
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I could use a full 250 point gain today to make me even so far on the week. Steady, I'll be at your backdoor ranking before the end of the month - watch for me. There are many lily padders that will sink as time progresses - it's going to be a fun summer.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I could use a full 250 point gain today to make me even so far on the week. Steady, I'll be at your backdoor ranking before the end of the month - watch for me. There are many lily padders that will sink as time progresses - it's going to be a fun summer.


How about 400 or so up to 1300.....? Yeah - I thought you would like that!

Thought you would enjoy Steve's comments..... We shall see.


WELCOME TO TRUE CONTRARIAN! I will attempt to create an entertaining, readable, and hopefully refreshing viewpoint a few times each month. Each issue will feature my intermediate-term financial outlook, my long-term financial outlook, and a personal reminiscence.

If everyone tells you it's going to be a beautiful day as long as it doesn't rain, then you'd better grab your umbrella and pack a raincoat. --Steven Jon Kaplan

TOO MANY NERVOUS BULLS ENSURE AN EQUITY PLUNGE JUST AHEAD (June 24, 2009): If you've been paying attention to the financial media in recent weeks, then I'm certain that you've noticed a sharply increasing number of analysts who are making remarks such as this: "The S&P 500 remains bullish as long as it remains above 875". Some analysts substitute similar support levels such as 860, 870, or 880 instead of 875, but their outlook is otherwise identical.

This line of reasoning has progressed to the point where it is a nearly unanimous consensus. Therefore, what must inevitably happen is that one fine day in late June or early July of 2009, the general equity market will break below the topmost of these popularly followed support levels. This will trigger sell stops from all of those investors who have decided that they will reduce or eliminate their equity exposure once such a target is broken to the downside. The resulting pullback will cause the next support level to be hit, thereby inducing more selling, and so on, until everyone with this viewpoint has turned bearish. This will probably cause the S&P 500 to complete a short-term bottom near 837. As a result of this retreat, there will likely be some fresh short selling by those who believe this event has ushered in a key downside breakout.

Since so many are positioned to unload rapidly when their pet support level is violated, the market will likely flush out all of these nervous bulls within just one or two trading days. Afterward, there will likely be a period of several trading days of above-average volatility in both directions, as investors become confused as to what will happen next. The following headline will become commonplace: "Will we retest the March lows? Analysts are divided in their opinions."

Following this period of indecision, some tentative buying will emerge. Hedge funds and pension funds worldwide are currently severely underinvested in equities as compared with their target allocations. Therefore, since hedge funds love to buy into any rebound which follows a sharp pullback, these funds will all be rushing back into the market at the same time. Those who sold short following the alleged downside breakout will simultaneously hurry to cover their short positions. This buying spree will be as intense and as brief as the previous rapid pullback had been.

Within a week or so thereafter, the S&P will likely regain the 900 level en route to the most powerful phase of its entire 2009 rally which began in early March. The quick bull market will likely end this autumn with the stock market returning to its levels of early September 2008. That could result in the S&P reaching 1300.

http://truecontrarian.com/
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is now at 26.99 down 2.06. It's a rather quiet rally today - may heat up some more later this afternoon. I'd still like a 250 pointer to make me even on the week.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

I realize Buy and Hold sounds like a Foreign Concept.

But consider the AT - and our general crowd.

You could label anyone who made 20% or greater as a B&Her

All the more those who made 30% or better


On days like this - when the Markets are coming out to bask in the sun - and are springing to life it is the B&Hers always taking the 'Joy Ride'

Think about these things the next time you're ready to bail ;)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

On days like this - when the Markets are coming out to bask in the sun - and are springing to life it is the B&Hers always taking the 'Joy Ride'

Think about these things the next time you're ready to bail ;)
Or, they're glad they've gotten everything back from Monday and Tuesday!!!:cheesy:
 
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