Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Its controversial conclusion, which I still believe today, was that m2009 should be a massive up year. We are talking 25% up to maybe even 50% in the S&P 500. And considering the SPX started 2009 near 900, such levels would be much higher from here. If this history holds, which it should, the stock markets will rally on balance for much of the rest of the year. And that means the dollar safehaven trade will continue to unwind. Stronger stock markets help portend a weaker dollar, much like we saw between early 2003 and late 2007."

http://safehaven.com/article-13396.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

You might find it fun to review this article also by Adam Hamilton.

http://www.safehaven.com/showarticle.cfm?id=12764

"While exceedingly hard, the very times when things looked the bleakest in late 2002 and early 2003 were the ideal times to buy stocks to ride the coming 101.5% SPX bull market" How I remember it well and I did get my share just like this time around. That's experience.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"No growth yet, but the worst is over."

http://safehaven.com/article-13397.htm

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I just finished looking back at some of my C fund purchases and I have to admit that the bear has been generous - the shares are really beefing up. From Oct-Dec '08: $10.32, 10.06, 10.70, 9.20, 10.09, 10.21. Since Jan.'09: $10.76, 9.83, 9.55, 9.58, 8.54, (I missed the lowest price at $7.86), 8.80, 9.50, 9.98, 10.10, 10.84, and finally this week at 10.37. Yes those are some nice prices off this bottom process and eventually they will all be worth more than I paid - accumulation is the name of the game. We completely skipped the $11 and $12 range on the way down so now if we don't hurry too much back up I can catch a few prices in those ranges. Dollar cost averaging is the redeemer of all portfolios.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The closest parallel, in purely financial terms, to what we're seeing this year is the financial market recovery of 1975. That followed a severe pounding in equity prices that began in January 1973 and continued until the Kress 10-year and 40-year cycles bottomed in October 1974. Following this the Dow gained 100% off its '74 low and continued to rally into 1976. As we discussed in a recent report, the 10-year cycle low in 1974 coincided with the 6-year cycle peak in 1975 to form a bullish pattern that allowed share prices to rally vigorously for the single best percentage gain of our lifetime.

This year there is a somewhat similar cyclical pattern with the Kress 6-year cycle having bottomed last fall and is now ascending while the 10-year cycle is peaking. This is the reverse of what happened in 1975 but still two key yearky cycles are in a bullish configuration, which partly explains the sizable gains that have already been made in equities this year."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2009/0520.html

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The closest parallel, in purely financial terms, to what we're seeing this year is the financial market recovery of 1975. That followed a severe pounding in equity prices that began in January 1973 and continued until the Kress 10-year and 40-year cycles bottomed in October 1974. Following this the Dow gained 100% off its '74 low and continued to rally into 1976. As we discussed in a recent report, the 10-year cycle low in 1974 coincided with the 6-year cycle peak in 1975 to form a bullish pattern that allowed share prices to rally vigorously for the single best percentage gain of our lifetime.

This year there is a somewhat similar cyclical pattern with the Kress 6-year cycle having bottomed last fall and is now ascending while the 10-year cycle is peaking. This is the reverse of what happened in 1975 but still two key yearky cycles are in a bullish configuration, which partly explains the sizable gains that have already been made in equities this year."

http://[[[financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2009/0520.html

Bman,

The average middle class amercian was in 75% less debt and saved much more.

the comparsson lack important information about credit and saving used by the consumer at that time 70s and are unavalubule at this time 2009.

With no Credit Who is going to spend Money? Who going to save with no Job? Whos going build with no Factory? or product ?Who going to sell with no Product. House of card, The King has No Clothes.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Here are two videos that are all negative - bad week coming. But I'm not a believer.

http://www.thechartpatterntrader.com/

 

[Boghie]

Consumer Adjustments...

ChipDip,

Consumers and business have been adjusting to the changing economic patterns since early 2007. Yeah, there is more to come. Folks are trying to save 10% of their income and we are at 5%, but the adjustments have largely been made.

The only entities that still remain that haven't at least started to make adjustments are the State/Federal governments and commercial property. Commercial property investment - with their gogo 5 or 7 year loans and then sell off business plan - are going to be in trouble. Government entities thought they could weather the storm without cutbacks and thus delayed action till they have to cut 20% in one fell swoop are in trouble. Thus commercial REITs and government bond holders are going to be watching their assets evaporate – through either inflation or default.

Therefore, the next big washout will not be the private sector, but instead the public sector.

Living the Dream in California. Watch us, we are the future!!!

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bman

thanks for the site.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In a sign that economic recovery may be near, the Conference Board said its index of leading economic indicators rose 1% in April. It was the first time the index rose in 10 months and the largest gain in nearly four years. The index has made similarly sharp increases within two months of the end of past recessions. This signals that the worst of the downturn is over. I don't believe it's a head fake.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I read today in one of my WSJs (And I'm not going to go back and find it), where Toll Brothers the luxury homebuilder had started 582 new homes in April. This figure is way low compared to last year - but is double what they were doing in March. It looks like we have a bottom in the housing market - we'll learn more next week when data is released. I would not be surprised if the bull stampedes all during the next four trading days - finally cracking the 200 day for the SPX at 936. Lowes and Home Depot are running low on dried bull manure - I'll donate some of mine.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm sure there is at least one person out there in cyberspace wondering how I've done in the last eleven weeks since the March lows - right? Well at week nine the oceanic had gained $479K and now at week eleven we are at $386K. Any gains in the next four trading days will be beneficial. Of course I could roll back to week number five when I was ahead only $302K - such as fate in investing. I'm however confident that week #twelve will be productive to make all the chart slaves and bears real nervous. We need a week to increase their anxiety levels and spin their heads as this train gathers momentum as it travels down the mountain tracks. The Dow 200 day is now at 8844 and could easily be taken out this week. When it happens it probably won't mean a thing. Snort

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yea bman Sundays AJC avised the new home building index went from 14 to 16 last week WOW.........ON A Scale OF .........100

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk


Bman

Note the above CCI HAD the same up swing after last apr. 08 (tax a fiscial stimuliless checks)also last year drop after spending decresed.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

This one's for you Bman

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This is from the print issue of the WSJ dated April 6,2009.

"During the downturn in the equities market between December 1999 and September 2002, approximately $10 trillion of equity was reased. But a measure of financial system performance, the Keevf, Bruyette, & Woods BKX index of financial firms, fell less than 6% during that period. In the current downturn, the value of residential real estate has fallen approximately $3 trillion, but the BKX index has now fallen 75% from its peak of January 2007. The financial sector has been devastated in this crisis, whereas it was almost completely unaffected by the downturn in the equities market early in this decade.

How can one crash that wipes out $10 trillion in assets cause no damage to the financial system and another that causes $3 trillion in losses devastate the financial system?

In the equities-market downturn early in this decade, declining assets were held by institutional and individual investors owned the assets outright, or held only a small fraction on margin, so losses were absorbed by their owners. In the current crisis, declining housing assets were often, in effect, purchased between 90% and 100% on margin. Over the past 18 months as housing prices have fallen, millions of homes became worth less than the loans on them, huge losses have been transmitted to lending institutions, investment banks, investors in mortgage backed securities, sellers of credit default swaps, and the insurer of last resort, the U.S. Treasury."

"The price decline started in 2006. Then policies designed to promote the American dream instead produced a nightmare. Trillions of dollars of mortgages, written to buyers with slender equity, started a wave of delinquencies and defaults. Borrowers' losses were limited to their small down payments; hence, the lion's share of the losses was transmitted into the financial system and it collapsed."

No wonder there is a big move by the silent majority to acquire guns and ammo - think of the consequences.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We are about to experience the first of the three 13-year Jupiter-Neptune conjunction passages this week. Mercury is retrograde, a time band notorios for false technical signals."

http://mmacycles.com/

 

[dannyboy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We are about to experience the first of the three 13-year Jupiter-Neptune conjunction passages this week. Mercury is retrograde, a time band notorios for false technical signals."

http://mmacycles.com/

What does that mean? Space cadet Birchtree! :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Unless you are a believer in astrological finance it could mean absolutely nothing. I simply like to remain aware of all types of cycles because I am a cycle rider. I was looking for something positive because the net was so negative over the weekend - and today the gloom and doom set were proved wrong, again. Now we'll see what happens the next three days. I remain bullish and would still like to zero in on a $100K week - got a nice start today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Here is a very tasty and succulent gloom and doom article for my still bearish friends.

"If you are long the broad US stockmarket - prepare to get buried." Sookie save me.!!

http://safehaven.com/article-13414.htm