Birchtree's Account Talk

[dannyboy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes,
Thanks to Birch and the "CAPE" man. Birch probably looks down on me, but "Hey, that (down)line is how long? miles? I almost gave up on Birch for last week got bad-bader-badest. I was baby sitting elder parents and I was depressed. I was gonna bail, but there's the silver lining that pops when a bad week goes south. I announced it was bad but decided to wait for Mon. mornin' to confirm this. Well Monday, started bad, then kept getting better, so I never acted out (this time!),
THANK GOD. Things are Looking Up!

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is nothing more than a tool (one of many) that the current market sellers are using to distract the buyers.

"Look buyer, look at the VIX" (while the sellers stuff your money down their pants.) :cheesy:

 

[CapeChem]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So...VIX has no usefulness what so ever in todays market.

 

[JTH]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So...VIX has no usefulness what so ever in todays market.

Well I wouldn't go that far. Check out my last blog, there's a good VIX Blog link in there.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I was buying many stocks when the VIX was at 89 - I'm just resting for now. I'll be transferring my Merrill account to BAC around the 17th of June - then I'll be opening the spigots a little. I believe they will advance me a margin balance of $1.4M to buy more stocks and only charge me 3% which is tax deductable. Got to be careful and on the look out for a potential March 9th retest - that'll be a great time to load up again. If it never happens I'll be buying the intraday corrections from now until eternity. Today was actually a positive day with the A/D line about even - so maybe another break even day. I did take in $6K yesterday on a 29 point drop which wasn't bad. I remember one time not that long ago when the market was down 90 points and I only gave back $1K - keeping an eye on the NYSE composite as it approaches 6,000 on the index.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch probably looks down on me

No, that's not his style. He simply thinks most of us are a bit misguided and get a little carried away with the changing winds.

I was buying many stocks when the VIX was at 89.

In other words back in the days when the Stock Markets were beginning to take form and shape he began buying and buying and buying ....

Good night Birch !

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We will be watching to see whether the lows hold as they did in March 2003, which symbolized the onset of the cyclical bull phase at the time; or whether this turns out to be a violation of the lows as was the case in the summer of 2002, which represented the final severe leg of the tech-induced bear market of that prior cycle."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10764.html

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"We will be watching to see whether the lows hold as they did in March 2003, which symbolized the onset of the cyclical bull phase at the time; or whether this turns out to be a violation of the lows as was the case in the summer of 2002, which represented the final severe leg of the tech-induced bear market of that prior cycle."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10764.html

Birch,

I seriously don't know what this place would do without you.

You're a very cool dude.

Now I understand the importance of using the 'bull phase' when dealing with cyclical activity so let's just leave it there. For now.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I can always find a little sunshine on a rather dark day - tomorrow I wll get another purchase of the C fund in the $10 range. My last purchase price was at $10.84 so anything lower than that would be sublime. I have only four dividends due today and at lower pricing I get more shares and eventually more income for the next round. I have a truck load paying in June so if June is slow to rise I'll be happy making that sacrifice because I want those dividend reinvestments.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What's the VIX telling us today?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is just bouncing off support at 30 - nothing out of the ordinary. But the low twenties are eventually in the cards. A 1200 SPX is doable on the next rally leg after we complete the right shoulder of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a natural pause that refreshes although tomorrow we may take back all the downside of today.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The Dow is still currently up 25 points on the week - tomorrow will tell the story. Last week we were down 306 on the week and I thought perhaps with our Monday 235 gain that we'd wipe cans but not the case. Unless tomorrow really rips it will take two weeks to regain those points. So perhaps we are building a right shoulder and patience is required until completion - then we rock.

 

[WorkFE]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,
Thanks for being an honest broker and releaving yourself of the chearleader role. All in risk read between the lines.
You are loved by all even though some do not read between the oak lines. Thanks brother.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The gap between short and long term Treasury rates is approaching a record as the economy shows signs of recovery and the government floods the market with new debt. The yield curve is widely seen as a harbinger of an economy's outlook, with a steepening yield curve portending the end of a recession and an economic rebound in the making. Yup, even Krugman says the recession is over and now he is a bull. A yield curve trend tends to be long lasting. That will change when the Fed starts to reverse its stimulative monetary policies and starts raising interest rates and that won't happen until our at risk population is saved. The yield curve is likely to remain steep.

 

[Pschiffdicpal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The gap between short and long term Treasury rates is approaching a record as the economy shows signs of recovery and the government floods the market with new debt. The yield curve is widely seen as a harbinger of an economy's outlook, with a steepening yield curve portending the end of a recession and an economic rebound in the making. Yup, even Krugman says the recession is over and now he is a bull. A yield curve trend tends to be long lasting. That will change when the Fed starts to reverse its stimulative monetary policies and starts raising interest rates and that won't happen until our at risk population is saved. The yield curve is likely to remain steep.

Krugman...is one of many lying Bagman Jackals for this administration...What's he going to say.... we F up..... all of you are so...screwed:nuts: I trust him about as far as I can throw the fat Bastard. I understand the Bond market will puke.... and soon.... if the fake money doesn’t stop. All of you in F fund can look forward to not only losing you gains and your princeable tooo

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anybody seen Ekatteng?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I asked the same question a few posts back. Right now I'm still up $25K on the week and perhaps today will help me close the gap on the $112K I gave back last week - every little bit helps. There is always next week for more positive gains.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for the chearleader role.

Birch - I think my favorite line ever is when you said something like, "I've made many pansy moves" :laugh:


Have a great weekend Birch - and THANK YOU !!!

Deep down this weekend is for you and you deserve it.


AS I WENT DOWN THE HALL TO GET SOME ICE - I REMEMBERED THERE ARE OTHERS ON THE MB THAT EQUALLY DESERVE THIS MESSAGE - YOU KNOW WHO YOU ARE AND I SWEAR FROM THE BOTTOM OF MY HEART THAT THIS MESSAGE IS EQUALLY FOR YOU.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I read an article last evening where the writer mentioned something about a financial colonoscopy - I sure wish SugarandSpice would elaborate further for me. I've had a colonoscopy and was deemed clean. But I'm puzzled about a financial colonoscopy.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

But I'm puzzled about a financial colonoscopy.

Well it's rare - if almost virtually unheard of - to hear any of these financial writers talking in terms of cycles or waves.

So when things are looking good (like early March) then all the news is going to accompany the rising Markets with a bunch of BS to support that condition.

Now that is appears the 'colon' has reached its full --- my guess is the writter is saying - 'WE NEED TO FLUSH THE SYSTEM OUT' so we can go in and get it fixed.

Who knows Birch - just be glad he didn't relate it to the Lungs