Birchtree's Account Talk

[kar_crazy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

welcome back

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Eight out of 10 leading economic indicators have now turned positive or at least neutral."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/article10716.html

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Originally Posted by Birchtree
The percentage of companies raising their earnings guidance increased by over 70%.

Tom,

I believe it was from Bespoke - something they wrote last week.

Thanks B. That's a pretty cool site actually. I see that 62% beat estimates in the 1st quarter, but could not find the guidance.

If this is true, it could be the piece of the puzzle the market needs as declining earnings have been the big problem.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX closed out at 30.24 down 2.88. I think I'm finally starting to get a little bit nervous with the complacency but I'll hold tight until the VIX gets into the high twenties. A move above 940 and especially a move above 1000 on the S&P would take the worst case extended bear market outcome off the table. A decisive breakdown of the VIX validates the near term buying panic hypothesis. Given the duration of the chart formation and the MA squeeze this is not likely a false move. If we get into the twenties the SPX goes to 1100 in several months. I'm getting so bullish I'm starting to stink like Ferdinand - that sweet smell of superlative bull manure is wafting across the MB. Snort.

 

[Medic72]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

thanks birch! another addition to the Book of Birchtree Quotes!

"I'm getting so bullish I'm starting to stink like Ferdinand - that sweet smell of superlative bull manure is wafting across the MB. Snort."

gonna post some of what i have aquired so far in my thread

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This year alone, Leuthold anticipates that S&P 500 stock index will hit 1100, representing a 63% gain from the March 9 closing low and a 28% increase from April 9."

http://www.kiplinger.com/magazine/archive/2009/06/bears-turn-bullish.html

 

[Boghie]

Blind Sow Rally

Snort...
Snort......
Snort.........

She don't look much like a bull to me.
She lookin' for that acorn, yeh.
She shore is running fast.
She seems kinda blind.

I'll ride this blind sow around for a while.
She'll share an acorn with me :blink:
I'll be patient. :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm sure there is a message there - I'll keep looking. The VIX is now at 29.13 and could go even lower if we can rally hard around 1500 hours. I'll take any gain the market will give me today - that'll be my acorn. I just tread your thread and now I understand.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The VIX is now at 28.48 down 1.77. I've been waiting on this for awhile - now what to do about it. The SPX is headed higher that I know - how high only my new buddy Chipdip knows for sure. I think I'll collect a few of Ferd's turds because the cucumbers need nourishment that only a bull can offer.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, what comes first- A rising market or a declining VIX?

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think I'll collect a few of Ferd's turds because the cucumbers need nourishment that only a bull can offer.

Do you lay awake at night ..... wondering about the Lilly Padders being left behind ..... waiting and waiting for this downward spirl to plunge into the steepest drop ever .... while things just seem to keep going up and up and up and up ???








I don't either

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Nahh, I couldn't even picture Birch leaving guys like CP and Z behind if it came down to it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Indications are that when the VIX drops below 30 there is at least a 6% gain in the SPX to follow. Who knows, tomorrow could be another break out day flying fast and high. Even on a day like today I probably broke even and that's just fine. The NYSE is very close to its' January high and that's the broad market indicator.

 

[Boghie]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,

More Snark - yuk, yuk...

All the Stimulus money in the world won't turn a pig into a bull,
but it will make a mighty fast pig

You might be riding the bull,
but I just jumped on the fastest pig in town...

Yeeee Hawwww :laugh:

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
More Snark - yuk, yuk...

All the Stimulus money in the world won't turn a pig into a bull,
but it will make a mighty fast pig

You might be riding the bull,
but I just jumped on the fastest pig in town...

Yeeee Hawwww :laugh:

Boghie, have I told you lately how I love your sense of humor? :laugh:

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Indications are that when the VIX drops below 30 there is at least a 6% gain in the SPX to follow. Who knows, tomorrow could be another break out day flying fast and high. Even on a day like today I probably broke even and that's just fine. The NYSE is very close to its' January high and that's the broad market indicator.

This is a 5 year chart of the VXO and the SPX, the crossover of the VXO and the SPX suggest we are in deep Kimchi, or does it?

View attachment 6348

 

[KevinD]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Boghie, have I told you lately how I love your sense of humor? :laugh:

+1 :laugh:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

VIX is now at 27.48 down 1.32.

"B ottom Line: 30 may not hold for the VIX, but a continued implosion beyond the 25 or 20 area is not likely, in my analysis. And the current plunge does seem to indicate some general complacency, given that only months ago there was basically rampant pessimisom and panic among economists and analysts."

http://www.bigtrends.com/articles/dailytrendwatch/516-vix-breaks-below-30.html

 

[CapeChem]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/As-th...305755.html?sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&ccode=

Here is a nice article on VIX.......Thanks birch for making me go out and find out what VIX was and what it means to the market and specifically to this rally.....learned alot this month

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch,
I just noticed 'Sleep' - a newer MB member is on the scene.


That's great news for us - cause usually when Sleep comes around it means something big is about to happen.

I really don't care either way - but let it take off beyond the sky or plunge to the lowest depths of hell ... but I'm getting tired of the same ole same ole.

BTW - Western NC is one of thoses places that never changes no matter how much the rest of the world changes. It's one of those special places that is like immune and hidden from the rest of the clutter that bombards everything else.

I'll telling ya that so you'll be prepared for the National Song for that area 'Good ole Mountain Dew' - they're not talking about the soft drink Birch. As I think of things to prepare ya for the journey I'll keep ya posted. First ya got to learn that song and sing it like it's in your blood and a big part of your life.