Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How should somebody invest the Birchtree way? If you're going to invest, you need to take a stand. And it isn't for the faint of heart. I don't care what stock you own, if you own it long enough, it will eventually go down more than 50%. But psychologically, there is safety in numbers. You will find to your astonishment stocks you never dreamed of will go up tenfold or 20-fold. If you have a few of those, you can have 30 lemons out of 100 stocks. And don't worry about trying to rebalance your portfolio. You're always rebalancing automatically when you own a lot of stocks. What kind of temperment is needed to be a good investor? Tenacity is vital. So is patience. And so, too, is an ability to keep some perspective. I'm waiting on MOS to regain $160/share this week so I can peel off some to pick up my darling wall flowers. There were only 275 new lows on Friday.

 

[ChemEng]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

you can have 30 lemons out of 100 stocks

So your secret is to have a 70% success rate?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In this kind of market I'd be very happy with a 70% success rate. I have 228 individual stocks and I don't dare to count up the loosers at this time - all I know is that I'm still up $100K from the March lows.

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

So your secret is to have a 70% success rate?

WOW! what a perfect example of something spun out of context..ChemEng, you might be a wonderful and intelligent person, I don't know...and perhaps you meant this in a very sly way of scarcasam and jokingly, I don't know..But pardon me please, but I wanna use this as a perfect example of twisting what someone says and distorting it, like the Media and certain political left wingers like to do..

Just a focus on what Birch actually said.....30 out of a 100 STOCKS suck, not percentage wise...that 70 may make 99% of his total earnings.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm eagerly watching the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM with the rising bottoms line created on the MCSUM of January and March just below an important test is now coming up for the longer term condition of the market itself. The current value of the MCSUM is -194 and the support line is drawn at around -380. The key to this pattern though remains with the divergent lows of March and until this level is broken, the best thing that could happen here for the bullish camp is that another, and still stronger, divergent low might be in the offering. The RA NYAD line is really coiled here with all its' components in the same area - getting squeezed for some kind of move. Since everybody and their sister are bearish what a classic move this would be to get a strong break out and spank all those big bad bears.

 

[ChemEng]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just a focus on what Birch actually said.....30 out of a 100 STOCKS suck, not percentage wise...that 70 may make 99% of his total earnings.

Picking 70 winners out of 100 is a 70% success rate. To put that number in context, most VCs consider a fund that has a 10% success rate an winner. Birch has found the investing secret that lets him pick 700% better than those full time professionals with linkages to the Wall Street and IB brainpower.

 

[Buster]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Picking 70 winners out of 100 is a 70% success rate. To put that number in context, most VCs consider a fund that has a 10% success rate an winner. Birch has found the investing secret that lets him pick 700% better than those full time professionals with linkages to the Wall Street and IB brainpower.

Say it anyway you want..you still are glass half empty spin doctor.

 

[sugarandspice]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'll undoubtedly be around in ten years - I'm toast today after working in the yard, but it's definitely good for the cardiovascular system. I charge no fees for the first twelve months and require no contracts. I had a client call today looking for some reassurance on a down day -he feels better now and will be right and sit tight.

So then you are a motivational speaker rather than a successful financial advisor?

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steady and Birch,

I don't know if you guys read Barron's or not but they did a piece on GM a few weeks ago. Here's the link to check it out.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121218756175534083.html

Automobiles are going to be here for a long time to come, we just need to find a way to make them more efficient.

IMO, GM and Ford are calling the top in oil by closing a few of their SUV plants.

WOW Bullitt - thank you. Had no idea about this article, but they hold my "independent view".

GM - was downgraded recently - and is at a 30 some year low. So at the time it was brought to my attention MOST WOULD SAY AVOID THIS STOCK. I took a brief assessment - considered the current conditions we're in and the overall strength of GM and realized it's a golden opportunity. Mainly wanted to see if Birch would fall in the general mindset and was impressed with his thinking.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How should somebody invest the Birchtree way?

Weekend news - Buy S&P 500 NOW!! - Why because it's better than any one stock and is going to give you 16 times earnings.

Heavy investments in the S&P 500 is "the Birchtree way". The more shares you have the better off you are.

On a side note - the S Fund pretty much minics the C Fund and Small Caps certainly have their place.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I noticed that my CPO (Corn Products Int. Inc) is being bought out - was up +7.85 today to $50.75. I wish I had 10,000 shares to let go. I have many other wall flowers that also could benefit from good homes - the euro folks are on their way before the dollar takes back its six year decline.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I'm eagerly watching the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM with the rising bottoms line created on the MCSUM of January and March just below an important test is now coming up for the longer term condition of the market itself. The current value of the MCSUM is -194 and the support line is drawn at around -380. The key to this pattern though remains with the divergent lows of March and until this level is broken, the best thing that could happen here for the bullish camp is that another, and still stronger, divergent low might be in the offering. The RA NYAD line is really coiled here with all its' components in the same area - getting squeezed for some kind of move. Since everybody and their sister are bearish what a classic move this would be to get a strong break out and spank all those big bad bears.

Well hell, this is a great buying opportunity. 12,400 and change - You couldn't ask for a better stock market scenerio there Birchtree - buy low sell high ?? DCA the hell out of this market. Take a page out of the Peter Lynch handbook. Before you know it the ol' Queen Mary will be 8 figures as long as you stay away from the icebergs and with your long term approach - icebergs - what stinkin icebergs. Hell the ol' tugboat will be chump change when you lock this down.

Crap, I've been trying to talk to Al Gore to find out where the hell my lock box is with all my money.:laugh:

Best

cayman

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well hell, this is a great buying opportunity. 12,400 and change - You couldn't ask for a better stock market scenerio there Birchtree - buy low sell high ?? DCA the hell out of this market. Take a page out of the Peter Lynch handbook. Before you know it the ol' Queen Mary will be 8 figures as long as you stay away from the icebergs and with your long term approach - icebergs - what stinkin icebergs. Hell the ol' tugboat will be chump change when you lock this down.

Crap, I've been trying to talk to Al Gore to find out where the hell my lock box is with all my money.:laugh:

Best

cayman

Most of the above went over my head but I am wondering where the perma bull is to steady us.

 

[Silverbird]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The lock box was used to pay the interest on the deficit.:toung:

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Most of the above went over my head but I am wondering where the perma bull is to steady us.

I've been wondering that too Birch.

I sure hope you know if anything has happened to you (or anyone close to you) that you have a huge support group here and all the more making that known (whatever that may be) would help us give you the love and support you need.

As for the Markets - they don't phase me at all. I know we need to hit bottom to form a new foundation. Wouldn't be surprised if we go as low as 1200 - then hopefully that will ride out long enough to convince the real money it's time to get in.

I guess the big question now is: Is the Bull being walked to the gate or is he already in the pen??

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been working my garden for the last four days keeping my head in the dirt. This afternoon I'm prepared to sacrifice my position in MOS to gain funds to load up the truck. I'll be buying banks and brokers along with housing stocks and many other wall flowers - not planning to make any money on these potential purchases for at least three years, I want the income as my legacy for the grandchildren.

 

[vectorman]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've been working my garden for the last four days keeping my head in the dirt. This afternoon I'm prepared to sacrifice my position in MOS to gain funds to load up the truck. I'll be buying banks and brokers along with housing stocks and many other wall flowers - not planning to make any money on these potential purchases for at least three years, I want the income as my legacy for the grandchildren.

Very smart. Good time frame. Like fastening a rock at the end of a rubber band. Once the pressure is let off, its really going to fly.


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[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Well I sold the MOS at $145.51 and now have plenty of cash to go fishin with - I really hate to take profits but the sacrifice was necessary. I noticed that AKS Holding is being added to the S&P 500 replacing Country Wide Financial that is being bought. Anyway this afternoon I purchased for the oceanic account: C, BBT, BAC, FNM, WB, WFC, MER, RF, SIG, STL, SOV, SNV, STI, RJF, EQY, ENH, FRE, FIG, FPO, DLX, STO, EXP, DW, DY, CBC, CIT, GM, and I'm not done yet - I like to throw money down the well.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

......- I really hate to take profits but the sacrifice was necessary........

Is it a physical pain or psychological pain Birch? I've been hedging my up fund with this bear movement.....can't wait for Thursday when the dollar takes a pounding from payroll reports! Then all back in on Tuesday for the second half!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Man I'm having a great time wasting money. Finished buying for today with: AZZ, ABB, ADC, AIN, ALY, ABK, AEE, ACC, GE, AEO, AIT, ARJ, ARM, AEC, AF, ATN, ATO, AXS, CBL, CNH, CMO, CSL, CRI, CX, CTX, DHI. Exactly how long is the alphabet anyway? Now I'll wait and see how much back up we get in case I have to dive deeper and fish the bottom. I think I may purchase CalDiveInt (DVR) to round out my energy holdings - tomorrow. As a contrarian I have done this strategy over and over through out the years - besides the pain only lasts for awhile - no pain no gain. I hope we don't explode yet because I do have more wall flowers on my list that need to be adopted into a warm portfolio. Yes sir, the bus travels fast with nobody on board. Friday we posted 492 new lows.