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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
robo
TSP Legend
- Reaction score
- 470
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Even Tom's talking about shorting if we gap up tomorrow.
Even Tom's talking about shorting if we gap up tomorrow.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The SPX closed at 1310.50 on January 22, a day that saw 1865 new lows. The SPX retested that level on March 17, closing at 1277. Although the benchmark breached January's base, the number of stocks hitting new lows was 1236. That was key support. During this current retest the number of new lows as of yesterday was 95. Maybe a few more after today's loss. The market will start to improve 6 to 9 months before the economic fundamentals show improvement. The S&P Financials are representing 22% of market cap. Today, it is still the largest sector (although the weighting is down to 17%). The Energy and Materials sectors of the S&P hit new all-time highs the other day before the correction got under way. Those sectors make up 29% of the S&P 500 - that also includes Industrials. The Dow will go on to put in new highs if the transports take out their old highs - and they did at 5492.
The SPX closed at 1310.50 on January 22, a day that saw 1865 new lows. The SPX retested that level on March 17, closing at 1277. Although the benchmark breached January's base, the number of stocks hitting new lows was 1236. That was key support. During this current retest the number of new lows as of yesterday was 95. Maybe a few more after today's loss. The market will start to improve 6 to 9 months before the economic fundamentals show improvement. The S&P Financials are representing 22% of market cap. Today, it is still the largest sector (although the weighting is down to 17%). The Energy and Materials sectors of the S&P hit new all-time highs the other day before the correction got under way. Those sectors make up 29% of the S&P 500 - that also includes Industrials. The Dow will go on to put in new highs if the transports take out their old highs - and they did at 5492.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Dennis, the DT's only put in a 5120.36 COB today; +0.33%. The high spike was set mid May at 5536.57.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
Not sure I follow what you're looking at.
Dennis, the DT's only put in a 5120.36 COB today; +0.33%. The high spike was set mid May at 5536.57.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
Not sure I follow what you're looking at.
Last edited:
Re: Birchtree's account talk
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
2 things I'm wondering about:
1) General Motors - Looks like a good buy to me.
Most see this peroid as something that will stretch though eternity and never have an end. I don't think the general population realize it's simply an adjustment largely created from the credit crunch and the general negative sentiment from a drawn out war.
This is part of a growing stage and the greatest impacts have already been addressed. It may take a year but things will definately change for the better in many ways and the economy will soar.
Anyway I see GM making way more fuel efficient cars - stylish looks and the auto industry doing very well over the next 5 years.
2) China has been one of the most profitable investments ever and is only getting stronger.
Are you willing to support their growth? I'm asking this without any political stance - in otherwords from a totally neutral point of view.
Birch,
2 things I'm wondering about:
1) General Motors - Looks like a good buy to me.
Most see this peroid as something that will stretch though eternity and never have an end. I don't think the general population realize it's simply an adjustment largely created from the credit crunch and the general negative sentiment from a drawn out war.
This is part of a growing stage and the greatest impacts have already been addressed. It may take a year but things will definately change for the better in many ways and the economy will soar.
Anyway I see GM making way more fuel efficient cars - stylish looks and the auto industry doing very well over the next 5 years.
2) China has been one of the most profitable investments ever and is only getting stronger.
Are you willing to support their growth? I'm asking this without any political stance - in otherwords from a totally neutral point of view.
Silverbird
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 27
sugarandspice
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 31
Re: Birchtree's account talk
What market savvy! Thanks for the tip here. Im in. But don't share this kind of thing with everyone.......or did you forget to put the word...... Eventually on the end of your "statement?"
What market savvy! Thanks for the tip here. Im in. But don't share this kind of thing with everyone.......or did you forget to put the word...... Eventually on the end of your "statement?"
kar_crazy
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 11
Re: Birchtree's account talk
1) General Motors - Looks like a good buy to me.
Anyway I see GM making way more fuel efficient cars - stylish looks and the auto industry doing very well over the next 5 years.
i wish they would bring the camaro back shoot ole ford is flooding the market with mustangs and loving it
1) General Motors - Looks like a good buy to me.
Anyway I see GM making way more fuel efficient cars - stylish looks and the auto industry doing very well over the next 5 years.
i wish they would bring the camaro back shoot ole ford is flooding the market with mustangs and loving it
luv2read
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 18
Re: Birchtree's account talk
New camaro out later this year or Q1 2009. Saw the prototype.
Some dealers actually have scale models - tried to talk our local out of his.
http://www.chevrolet.com/camaro/http://www.automobilemag.com/auto_shows/naias_2006/0601_chevrolet_camaro_concept/index.html
New camaro out later this year or Q1 2009. Saw the prototype.
Some dealers actually have scale models - tried to talk our local out of his.
http://www.chevrolet.com/camaro/http://www.automobilemag.com/auto_shows/naias_2006/0601_chevrolet_camaro_concept/index.html
kar_crazy
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 11
Re: Birchtree's account talk
i have seen many pictures but if they would hurry it might save some peoples jobs we lost G M in oklaNew camaro out later this year or Q1 2009. Saw the prototype.
http://www.automobilemag.com/auto_shows/naias_2006/0601_chevrolet_camaro_concept/index.html
kar_crazy
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 11
Re: Birchtree's account talk
but i will take a blue one make mine a SS white stripe bee stripe on the nose
luv2read
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 18
Re: Birchtree's account talk
(Red would be OK too!)
http://www.chevrolet.com/camaro/
Blue one, white stripe, white ragtop please!
(Red would be OK too!)
http://www.chevrolet.com/camaro/
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Looks like the Dow Transports were up huge today, Dennis; 3.37%
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
Looks like the Dow Transports were up huge today, Dennis; 3.37%
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The Dow Transports previous high close was 5446 - the most recent all-time new high close was 5492. Today the transports were rocking closing up 172 something - that leaves only 200 more points for the next new all-time high and I certainly believe the industrials will play catch up.
To answer Steady's question - I believe the #1 rule for making money in the next decade is to get long whatever the Chinese are buying. So what if their market has fallen 50% from its high of 6,000. It will rebound just as quickly - and besides mom and pop now have permission to expand their investments into this country via their banks and even some of our brokerage houses. Money travels both ways. Do you know what the #1 status car in China since 1924 is - the Buick.
Banks and brokerages have taken about $210 billion in losses in the past three quarters. Each quarter, investors have applauded the sector's "kitchen-sink" approach to dumping garbage, only to be horrified when they realized there were other kitchen sinks.
First quarter corporate earnings, excluding financials are up a healthy 9.5%. If companies, which overall have strong balance sheets, can keep spending, the economy can avoid the kind of job cuts that would extend the downturn or as I like bto think the mid-cycle slowdown. It also means that a continued decline in home prices might have only a limited effect on the broader corporate earnings outlook. That would potentially allow stocks to finally climb higher.
Yes GM would be a goldern purchase for the long haul with dividend reinvestment in tow. I know someone that has a nice chunk of Ford at $6.00 and is still wondering why.
Despite the first-half losses some analyst predict a big rebound in the third anf fourth quarter earnings. The wave, they believe, will be led by financials and companies that make and sell so-called consumer cyclicals - such as cars or home furnishings. Such an uptick is expected to lead to an 18% rebound in third quarter earnings and a full year gain for the S&P 500 earnings of 14.7%. Buy'em when you think you are the only one doing the foolish wasting of money. I've been slowly building up my bank purchases - every time I have bought they have only gotten cheaper - but I'll also track them on the way up.
The Dow Transports previous high close was 5446 - the most recent all-time new high close was 5492. Today the transports were rocking closing up 172 something - that leaves only 200 more points for the next new all-time high and I certainly believe the industrials will play catch up.
To answer Steady's question - I believe the #1 rule for making money in the next decade is to get long whatever the Chinese are buying. So what if their market has fallen 50% from its high of 6,000. It will rebound just as quickly - and besides mom and pop now have permission to expand their investments into this country via their banks and even some of our brokerage houses. Money travels both ways. Do you know what the #1 status car in China since 1924 is - the Buick.
Banks and brokerages have taken about $210 billion in losses in the past three quarters. Each quarter, investors have applauded the sector's "kitchen-sink" approach to dumping garbage, only to be horrified when they realized there were other kitchen sinks.
First quarter corporate earnings, excluding financials are up a healthy 9.5%. If companies, which overall have strong balance sheets, can keep spending, the economy can avoid the kind of job cuts that would extend the downturn or as I like bto think the mid-cycle slowdown. It also means that a continued decline in home prices might have only a limited effect on the broader corporate earnings outlook. That would potentially allow stocks to finally climb higher.
Yes GM would be a goldern purchase for the long haul with dividend reinvestment in tow. I know someone that has a nice chunk of Ford at $6.00 and is still wondering why.
Despite the first-half losses some analyst predict a big rebound in the third anf fourth quarter earnings. The wave, they believe, will be led by financials and companies that make and sell so-called consumer cyclicals - such as cars or home furnishings. Such an uptick is expected to lead to an 18% rebound in third quarter earnings and a full year gain for the S&P 500 earnings of 14.7%. Buy'em when you think you are the only one doing the foolish wasting of money. I've been slowly building up my bank purchases - every time I have bought they have only gotten cheaper - but I'll also track them on the way up.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
To answer Steady's question - I believe the #1 rule for making money in the next decade is to get long whatever the Chinese are buying. Money travels both ways.
I'm really glad you feel that way Birch. I've got a few friends who refuse to buy any stock linked to China because they think it's "anti American" - and anything I say is just a waste of time. But they have had and continue to have some of the best I can find.
Do you know what the #1 tatus car in China since 1924 is - the Buick.
Did not know that, but now I'll go around and ask others this and they'll think I've done tons of research dating back to the 1920s. :cheesy:
Yes GM would be a goldern purchase for the long haul with dividend reinvestment in tow.
Birch, I honestly meant these as "feelers" - kind of test questions to see what you thought. For now I'm doing pretty good and can't change my financial positions until my last kid's out of college - which is close to my retirement in 7 to 10 years.
If you're still in the business I could gather my portfolio and fax everything to you and either send you your fee or wire it. I trust you and it's rare I trust anyone on that level. Anyway, I'm throwing this out if you're willing to handle some long distance business (but again I'm talking 10 years from now).
To answer Steady's question - I believe the #1 rule for making money in the next decade is to get long whatever the Chinese are buying. Money travels both ways.
I'm really glad you feel that way Birch. I've got a few friends who refuse to buy any stock linked to China because they think it's "anti American" - and anything I say is just a waste of time. But they have had and continue to have some of the best I can find.
Do you know what the #1 tatus car in China since 1924 is - the Buick.
Did not know that, but now I'll go around and ask others this and they'll think I've done tons of research dating back to the 1920s. :cheesy:
Yes GM would be a goldern purchase for the long haul with dividend reinvestment in tow.
Birch, I honestly meant these as "feelers" - kind of test questions to see what you thought. For now I'm doing pretty good and can't change my financial positions until my last kid's out of college - which is close to my retirement in 7 to 10 years.
If you're still in the business I could gather my portfolio and fax everything to you and either send you your fee or wire it. I trust you and it's rare I trust anyone on that level. Anyway, I'm throwing this out if you're willing to handle some long distance business (but again I'm talking 10 years from now).
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'll undoubtedly be around in ten years - I'm toast today after working in the yard, but it's definitely good for the cardiovascular system. I charge no fees for the first twelve months and require no contracts. I had a client call today looking for some reassurance on a down day -he feels better now and will be right and sit tight.
I'll undoubtedly be around in ten years - I'm toast today after working in the yard, but it's definitely good for the cardiovascular system. I charge no fees for the first twelve months and require no contracts. I had a client call today looking for some reassurance on a down day -he feels better now and will be right and sit tight.
Bullitt
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 73
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Steady and Birch,
I don't know if you guys read Barron's or not but they did a piece on GM a few weeks ago. Here's the link to check it out.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121218756175534083.html
Automobiles are going to be here for a long time to come, we just need to find a way to make them more efficient.
IMO, GM and Ford are calling the top in oil by closing a few of their SUV plants.
Birch,
Double bottoms in the McClellan Oscillator have been bullish in the past, so I'm surprised you aren't spreading that manure around the block. With sentiment falling off a cliff and that spike in short interest... Shoot, when has the market ever done what everyone expects it to?
Steady and Birch,
I don't know if you guys read Barron's or not but they did a piece on GM a few weeks ago. Here's the link to check it out.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB121218756175534083.html
Automobiles are going to be here for a long time to come, we just need to find a way to make them more efficient.
IMO, GM and Ford are calling the top in oil by closing a few of their SUV plants.
Birch,
Double bottoms in the McClellan Oscillator have been bullish in the past, so I'm surprised you aren't spreading that manure around the block. With sentiment falling off a cliff and that spike in short interest... Shoot, when has the market ever done what everyone expects it to?
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