Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Man I'm having a great time wasting money - besides the pain only lasts for awhile - no pain no gain. I hope we don't explode yet because I do have more wall flowers on my list that need to be adopted into a warm portfolio. Yes sir, the bus travels fast with nobody on board. Friday we posted 492 new lows.

It's great to have to back Birch !!

You most certainly have at least one passenger on board the bus and I'm in no hurry either. When we hit the Valley, I'll enjoy the ride more fully.

 

[Frixxxx]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's great to have to back Birch !!

It's great to see you back Steady!

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's great to see you back Steady!

Thank you my friend. I'm closing up the shop in 3 days then will be gone for a few weeks. This "vacation" is really anything but a vacation. It's driving at a fairly fast pace to reinforce some bonds with friends and family in MD, NC, WV, KY. We'll stay here and there just long enough to bask "in love" and then move on.

Have a great week Frixxxx

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanx for the welcome Steady - I had to pull back from all the nonsense for awhile and do something constructive while the hammer was at work. But I'm taking opportunity of these lows and trying to buy myself into happiness - I do my best work from the bottom of the well. This environment just doesn't feel like a bear market - it's more like a nifty-fifty market that some of us experienced in the early seventies.

From my friends at Merrill - by Mary Ann Bartels, Technical Research Analyst

"Historically, periods in which bears dominate (as measured by a five-week moving average of bulls minus bears) have been preludes to important rallies. Some examples: the five week moving average was at oversold extremes in June 1984, October 1986, much of 1988, and August and October 2002. Those extremes were reached in different fundamental environments, but everyone occurred near an important low; moreover, not one occurred prior to an important decline. There is no evidence to suggest that this time should be any different. The record shows that when this indicator is oversold, the average three-month return is 11.49% (55%) annualized. The mid and small-cap indexes have shown constructive relative strength patterns, suggesting "the market" is in better shape than the headline big cap indexes would seem to suggest. All of this implies that the weakness from the May high is not a major trend reversal and may actually serve to create a stronger base than that provided by the January-March formation. This reminds us of March 2003, when the July and October 2002 lows were successfully tested."

The good news is that the overall market now is beginning to look more attractive based on any number of metrics. For example, the S&P 500 now trades at a price-earnings multiple of about 15 times this year's expected earnings.

The 10-year average is 18.7, covering a period of investor exuberance, as well as the 2000-2002 market downturn. The 24-year average P/E ratio is 15, and that includes a period of much higher inflation than now.

Some investors like to compare the market's earnings yield, or its earnings divided by price, with the yield on safe bonds, as a barometer of value. Today, the stock market's earnings yield is about 3.36 percentage points above the yield on the 10-year Treasury bonds, suggesting stocks are more attractive than bonds. In fact, the gap hasn't been this wide since 1981 when stocks then staged a strong three-year rebound. I remember it well - that's when I made my first $300K in ten months on very little money. I'm a long way from Dow 17,900 by the end of the year - but I'm holding steady on that level to arrive.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

At their peak in March 2000, tech stocks represented 35% of the S&P 500's market value, and at their low in 2002, they had fallen to 12.6%. Energy stocks represented 31% of the S&P 500 in November 1980, and fell to 15% by the end of 1983. FRinancial stocks never rose to more than 23% of the S&P 500, and now have fallen to around 14% or 15% of the index, overtaken by energy and technology stocks. Energy may go back to a 40% value. That's my plan anyway.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I see where ignorant general Wesley Clark wants to slam McCain. Wasn't this the guy with the swollen lip lock that was sucking the toes of John Kerry when....he was perpetuating his brand of liberalism?

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I see where ignorant general Wesley Clark wants to slam McCain. Wasn't this the guy with the swollen lip lock that was sucking the toes of John Kerry when....he was perpetuating his brand of liberalism?

He blew it big time. Schieffer was incredulous at what he was hearing. As NATO Commander he had to have a diplomatic tongue and his period was during the transition for that organization's military as they engaged in Bosnia, etc. He was not in favor with the administration when he retired from that post, IIRC, but I don't remember news of gaffs being a cause for departure. I think this one incident will cause his further sidelining. If ever a candidate for VP, this took him out---I don't believe his words were pre approved.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I see where ignorant general Wesley Clark wants to slam McCain. Wasn't this the guy with the swollen lip lock that was sucking the toes of John Kerry when....he was perpetuating his brand of liberalism?

It's amazing how so many of these guys are taking the platform to "toot their horns" and look like "the real know it alls".

I watched 3 Generals last night talk about this and that and one was so bent on showing "his superior understanding" - that you had to conclude "I will use this air time to look like I alone have the real and full understanding of what's really going on" - so of course he looked like a total idiot. I think it was Wesley Clark. The other 2 just rambled the same crap that anyone of us could have said. And then you've got this Army Guy who is talking about some kind of huge survey they did - that didn't show anything we all don't already know.

It'd be nice if we could be assigned to deal with some of these idiots. In fact we should try for that Birch; have the government pay us to handle election time BS.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Just finished purchasing for today: FBP, BRT, BLX, BXS, BK, BCS, B, BZH, BVF, BTH, I only have 50 more on the list to go.

From Henry To, "Given the resilience of the Dow Transports, and given that it has led the broad market since October 2002, I do not expect the Dow Industrials to weaken much more from current levels. Bottom line: While the Dow Industrials is still technically weak, and while I believe the market will continue to struggle for the foreseeable future, it is unreasonable to think we are about to embark on a new cyclical bear market especially given the immense amount of investable capital on the sidelines and the overall decent valuations." Now that's a smart man.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Bottom line:I believe the market will continue to struggle for the foreseeable future.

Birch, if you need me to take over the train...there is no way I'm getting off these tracks :toung::nuts:

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Hard-Charger, I know how hard it was for you to part with MOS, but look at all the wonderful manure you managed to scoop up with that one big sell. Everyone is trying to buy those Agg and Oil Stocks today, but nobody wanted to touch them at the levels you were getting in at.

Shoot.... Even Show-Me is long banks these days.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yes that was a sacrifice and now I'm responsible next year for the capital gains tax. Did you notice I bought some more STO now that it's 20% higher - and probably going even higher. I also have a nice position in AGU and it keeps wanting to run higher. We are definitely in an inflation oriented commodity bull market. I've also had an almost 10 point run in my AZZ - big money, well not to Caymanbrac - but big to me. My CPO is being bought by BG and I may preempt it and sell to raise some more of that superlative bull manure. There are just so many dull wall flowers that continue to beckon for attention. If it is toxic I want to own it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"At a minus 35.9%, the HSNSI is now lower than it's been any time this decade - lower even than where it stood at the end of the 2000-2002 bear market. That's a bullish omen. Another bullish omen. The slightly higher low to which the HSNSI descended at the market's March lows (minus 29.4%) was still bearish enough to be the springboard for a rally of more than a thousand Dow points."

http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert - "Was Friday the Bottom"

The ISM's manufacturing index is far stronger in June than anticipated.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Inorder to demonstrate my lonely buy and hold strategy I'll show you all my purchases of Agrium (AGU) and coinciding dates. This stock is now vascilating between $105 - $107. My first purchase was on 6/18/04 at $13.88, then on 10/04/04 at $18.12, then 01/17/06 at $22.65, then 6/07/07 at $38.31, then on 7/27/07 at $42.34 (a birthday present to myself), then on 8/10/07 at $40.25. The share prices have run up another 65 points and I'm just letting them run. At some point I'll have to start peeling off some of the shares as profit to be used in the purchase of more dull wall flowers - but I'll take my time. Will this stock make a run to $160 like MOS did? I'll be patient and wait and see. I have a couple other agriculture stocks that are holding their own but I don't want to be boring you. The point of all this is that it takes time to really build an asset base and then be able to treat the whole portfolio like a garden - harvesting only those issues that are potentially mature and then replacing those issues with other contenders - it's the flexability that I like. I can take a profit when desired and hide the rest from the IRS until I'm ready to show my cards. I certainly hope McCain permanizes the Bush tax policies. I would prefer to pay taxes on my capital gains at 5% rather than 15% and I'm working on that strategy.

 

[Guest2]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

A finely written example of how the Buy & Hold method works.
Thanks Birch!

 

[rokid]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I see where ignorant general Wesley Clark wants to slam McCain. Wasn't this the guy with the swollen lip lock that was sucking the toes of John Kerry when....he was perpetuating his brand of liberalism?

Birch,

Not a pretty picture.

I read that Wesley Clark took four bullets in Vietnam and won a Silver Star leading his troops. Therefore, the "lip lock" thing seems a little out of character.

I'm hesitant to question the patriotism or courage of Vietnam vets whether it's Kerry, Clark, McCain, or Birch. McCain's courage under torture and his devotion to honor and duty is truly inspiring.

However, I agree with Clarke, that command-wise, being a fighter pilot doesn't automatically qualify McCain to be Commander-in-Chief. It does qualify him to have a perspective on the costs and sacrifices of war that neither Clinton, Bush, or Obama have.

Finally, I'm assuming that Clark believes himself to be more qualified for the job than either McCain or Obama.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Rokid,

As always you are polite and with excellent manners - come around anytime. I can always use a little polish in my imagery.

 

[Corepuncher]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The ISM's manufacturing index is far stronger in June than anticipated.

The prices paid component was up, and the employment component was down. Interestingly, exports actually went DOWN (will dollar strengthen?) I see that inventories and deliveries were responsible for the small uptick in the headline number. Maybe a slight effect of the stimulus money out there? Transient?

http://www.briefing.com/Investor/Public/Calendars/EconomicReleases/napm.htm

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Finally, I'm assuming that Clark believes himself to be more qualified for the job than either McCain or Obama.

This was my take also. Having been unsuccessful in his own run for the Presidency, after achieving the position of Supreme Commander in Europe, he has resentment showing for this O-5/O-6 being idolized. Initially I thought his remarks were ill considered but after Obama's weak comment and Axelrod's defense, it may have been planned as a frontal assault on McCain's "strength." It remains to be seen if the comments weaken the public image of McCain. I'm still recalling Schieffer's utter surprise.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I read that Wesley Clark

Didn't he have a major role at Waco in 1993?

http://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-a&rls=org.mozilla%3Aen-US%3Aofficial&channel=s&hl=en&q=%22wesley+clark%22+waco&btnG=Google+Search