Birchtree's Account Talk

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

WV:

I wish Mum's had been managing our subprime market...Something tells me she would have done a much better job than the supposed Wall Street experts..

FS

Thanks FS. You are probably right. She was a divorced mother of 3(dad was no good) and raised us on a waitress salary. And still managed to save and invest in the stock market. Every time we saw Mum's stock broker she would always comment "I don't know how your mother accummulated such wealth on a waitress salary". She was a great lady and I miss her very much.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It has been well documented that women are much better investors than men - primarily because they don't assume the level of risk. They prefer the slow and sure approach - kind of like my technique. I have a lot of girlie characteristics that keep my desire for the adrenalin rush under control. I wish I had an extra $300K because I would probably have spent the whole thing this morning. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It would appear that the 9 month bottom that was susposed to bottom on Dec. 19th did a split. There was a Nov. bottom and a Jan. bottom. Incidently, the same type of occurence happened at the 1998 bottom - there was an August bottom and an Oct. bottom. What we need to watch now is if the 9 month will help with the rally.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've noticed the autotracker currently has me invested at 90%G fund and 10%I fund - I must have lost my mind. Of course this is in error. Currently should be 75%C fund and 25%I fund COB 1/23. Prior to that I was 76%C fund and 24%I fund. Gee, don't make me nervous. I want my 2% nibble on the I fund at $21.58 and I want my further 1% nibble on the I fund at the close tomorrow. Thankyou.

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I've noticed the autotracker currently has me invested at 90%G fund and 10%I fund - I must have lost my mind. Of course this is in error. Currently should be 75%C fund and 25%I fund COB 1/23. Prior to that I was 76%C fund and 24%I fund. Gee, don't make me nervous. I want my 2% nibble on the I fund at $21.58 and I want my further 1% nibble on the I fund at the close tomorrow. Thankyou.

When I look at it under your individual name I see 75 (C) and 25 (I).

So, ensure Ocean is aware of this discrepency.

FWIW, we all here know that would NEVER be an allocation of your's!

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
Just upped my contributions to tsp with the COL raise we got. Still fully in C fund and DCA'ing. Any ideas when this rollercoaster will stop dropping like a rock. This buy and hold is sure making my stomach heave.
WV

 

[chezhoy]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How do we get this "autotracker?"

I've noticed the autotracker currently has me invested at 90%G fund and 10%I fund - I must have lost my mind. Of course this is in error. Currently should be 75%C fund and 25%I fund COB 1/23. Prior to that I was 76%C fund and 24%I fund. Gee, don't make me nervous. I want my 2% nibble on the I fund at $21.58 and I want my further 1% nibble on the I fund at the close tomorrow. Thankyou.

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How do we get this "autotracker?"

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?p=113427#post113427

 

[Tempest]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If Birchtree went to 'G'

*shudder*


"This is the end, beautiful friend
This is the end, my only friend
The end of our elaborate plans
The end of ev'rything that stands
The end

This is the end, my only friend
The end"

-Jim Morrison

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's time to call the "Cooler" back from the EbbChart. Is the RevShark at home by any chance. A capitulation day to marvel at from my perspective. Snort.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree,

I missed all the Market action today, because I work nights and sleep all day. I stopped by to read over the play-by-play action I have come to enjoy reading at your link. Oh well, I'll just stop by on down days and go to Bloomberg on up days. We need some big up volume days now for this thing to hold together. Looks like Henry may have hit it pretty close, but a another big sell-off is still possible.


Take Care!

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If Birchtree went to 'G'

*shudder*


"This is the end, beautiful friend
This is the end, my only friend
The end of our elaborate plans
The end of ev'rything that stands
The end

This is the end, my only friend
The end"

-Jim Morrison

If Birch moved anything into the G that would truly signal the bottom..

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If Ferdinand ever allows me to move to the G fund it will be because we are approaching a top, not a bottom. When I go to get out no one will want to follow because of fear of giving up further profit gains. I have to decide now if we just experienced the bottom of the 4-year cycle that was perhaps extended by two years. If that is the case then the first quarter of the next 4 year cycle is darn strong enough to push us to near new all-time highs again.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch, I thought I'd run the numbers to see if today was one of those 90% days you were telling me about, trouble is, I thought I knew where to go to get the up/down volumes, but am stuck. I found one site where it gave the up# price and volume for each component in the S&P that went up, and the down#s price and volume for each component that went down. Are those useable #s if I add them all up appropriately? I don't know if each component is weighted equally in the index or if not, how to do the weighting (if weighting is needed for this calculation).

Is there some site out there that just gives total up volume and total down volume on the day for the index as a whole? I can find total volume but not broken out the way you described. I'm a sponge, ready to soak up wisdom but I could use a little more guidance if you will contribute a little more aid to the cause.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The bear should be aware that something vicious comes this way in the form of Ferdinand. I think a lot of this mornings selling was related to over night margin calls. We are at historic levels of short positions and this rally possibly could last for weeks. I'll be watching the DJTA because a rally througfh October's recovery high (5023) would represent a move through important chart resistance and a decisive penetration of the new post-July downtrend line. Such a breakout would necessitate the establishment of a new uptrend line. The transports closed today at 4464.57, +293.68.

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Hey Birch, I thought I'd run the numbers to see if today was one of those 90% days you were telling me about, trouble is, I thought I knew where to go to get the up/down volumes, but am stuck. I found one site where it gave the up# price and volume for each component in the S&P that went up, and the down#s price and volume for each component that went down. Are those useable #s if I add them all up appropriately? I don't know if each component is weighted equally in the index or if not, how to do the weighting (if weighting is needed for this calculation).

Is there some site out there that just gives total up volume and total down volume on the day for the index as a whole? I can find total volume but not broken out the way you described. I'm a sponge, ready to soak up wisdom but I could use a little more guidance if you will contribute a little more aid to the cause.

Alevin,

Today the ratio was around only 33%. If tomorrow we get that 90% Up Volume day it would help confirm things. I get this data from a paid service and have no links for a free site, sorry.

 

[alevin]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Alevin,

Today the ratio was around only 33%. If tomorrow we get that 90% Up Volume day it would help confirm things. I get this data from a paid service and have no links for a free site, sorry.

Thanks for clearing up the mystery Robo, I won't spend any more time chasing this concept and just keep working with what I do have access to. appreciate the info.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The McClellan Oscillator (MCO) is the difference between a 19 day EMA (10% trend) and the 39 day EMA (5% trend) of the movement of the NYAD line itself. The MCO measures the trend of the A/D line. Emotion is the external force to a price pattern and money flow is the internal force to a price pattern. The trend of breadth, as measured by the MCO continues to hold divergent structures. The percentage of stocks above their 200-dat MA on the NYSE got as low as 14%. Tuesday we had the highest daily volume in history, over 61/2 billion shares traded on the NYSE. The CO (common only)NYSE breadth MCO needs to stay above the November lows at negative 75. On Tuesday the CO NYSE breadth MCO actually moved higher - attempting to put in another higher low in the pattern. Yesterday the same thing happened. As long as we have this type of structure building, we can't be in a bear market because we haven't had the longer term technical breakdown to call this event. We are simply holding divergent structures that are now getting stronger. Right now, although things feel bearish, the best interpretation of the last year or so is that of a simple correction in a very aggressive uptrend - that's what the internals with the MCO are saying or should I preface with suggesting. So my game plan as usual since before time is to remain fully invested.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

How about a little more nonsense talk. The McClellan Summation (MCSUM) is the tool that actually creates trends as an intermediate term time frame. The individual postings of the MCSUM are based on the daily number of the MCO, the higher or lower from the MCO zero line, the greater the gap expansion. In other words, it gives me a visual read of the intermediate term trend of money flow - a way to determine how fast money is either moving in or out of the market at any given time - how much energy is being produced. The greater the MCO reading, the further each posting is from the prior days position on the MCSUM. Thses tools work better for me than watching trend lines or channels. Inorder for the bull market to re-establish itself we should see a smooth advance higher out of the bottom and find initial resistance at the zero line, or maybe at the +250 level - similar to the 2003 bottom. Then we should decline for a couple of months where we should see support around the -250 level and then we should move aggressively higher. The other day the MCSUM was showing a reading of -991 an oversold extreme. It's flying now. If the CO NYSE breadth MCO continues to remain above levels created back earlier this month - this would that the divergent structures, amazingly, remains in place. That's what has kept me from climbing on this bearish train - the activity of the McClellan Oscillator has been divergent. I mean bottoms above bottoms are still intact. This will be the first time since 2003 that this has happened. If I'm wrong I'll still be strong.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"This is the end, beautiful friend
This is the end, my only friend
The end of our elaborate plans
The end of ev'rything that stands
The end

This is the end, my only friend
The end"

-Jim Morrison

Thanks Tempest,
I kind of use Birch's Thread as a newspaper to keep up with things (if I can ever keep up with him??) and noticed this great post. Jim had such a fantastic voice - a really screwed up life - but loved his poetry and expression.

Anyway - a great day to all.