Birchtree's Account Talk

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

mbia being investigated by ERSIA.....screwing employees in 401k,s...wow the bad news just keeps rolling out....more TRAINWRECKS to come i m sure....let it rain!

 

[350zCommTech]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

its amazing the number of people here that think they can time the market...i think the tsp group here is one of the worst there is at this practice....silly fooliness i presume.....i feel what the tsp board is doing of restricting all these ift,s is a very good thing and something that should of been done long ago....some just need to have thier hands held more often that others for if not they seem to self-destruct.....

Hey genius,

Why are you here, at TSPtalk? Did somebody here **** you off? So what if we're the worst? What is it to you? So far to date, this is the worst start for the market ever? The majority of TSP participants are buy and holders. How do you thing they've been doing?

Instead of polluting other peoples' talk thread, maybe you should open up your own talk thread and go ****-in-it. Most folks here, with the exception of Birchtree, try to add something meaningful to the board.

Have you thought about joining the tracker so you can prove yourself? What is your current allocation? Let me guess, you've been in the G or F since the start of the year and have avoided all this mess, right? Of course you have. You're a genius!

 

[robo]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

mbia being investigated by ERSIA.....screwing employees in 401k,s...wow the bad news just keeps rolling out....more TRAINWRECKS to come i m sure....let it rain!

Mr. Recognizer,

I agree with you, plenty more stormy clouds ahead. However, after many storms a rainbow appears, and this time will be no different.

Take Care!

 

[tsptalk]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

its amazing the number of people here that think they can time the market...i think the tsp group here is one of the worst there is at this practice....silly fooliness i presume.....i feel what the tsp board is doing of restricting all these ift,s is a very good thing and something that should of been done long ago....some just need to have thier hands held more often that others for if not they seem to self-destruct.....

A couple of months ago you were brand new to this [market timing/investing] following the hot hand of the day, and without doing an ounce of your own research. Today you're an expert on which strategy works best?

You need to start adding something of value to this site, even if it's concrete evidence to support your claims, or we'll have to let you go. Constant criticizing without substance does not work around here. You're getting on the members' nerves.

 

[Show-me]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Mr recongnizer,
Were do you come up with this constant negativity? PM me if you want to go to a MB that will truly appreciate your personality type. You have added no value to this MB since you arrived only antagonistic remarks. You are in fact free to go away.

If you can't tell, I'm biting my tongue.

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everyone is pounding on Mr. recognizer. Please don't do that! Just throw him out, unless there is a change in substance!

 

[airlift]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Everyone is pounding on mr. recognizer. Please don't do that! Don't waist time and energy. Just throw him out, unless there is a change in attitude and substance...

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sometimes there are times when I wished I owned a 1969 Datsun 2000 Fairlady coupe. As far as the universe goes I blew past URANUS on the way to Jupiter awhile back. Chuckles.

 

[nnuut]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

its amazing the number of people here that think they can time the market...i think the tsp group here is one of the worst there is at this practice....silly fooliness i presume.....i feel what the tsp board is doing of restricting all these ift,s is a very good thing and something that should of been done long ago....some just need to have thier hands held more often that others for if not they seem to self-destruct.....

Recognizer, you notice I left off the Mr. BUZZ off you're a fly in a bucket of milk! Who are you really? We appreciate your criticism at a time when the Market has had it's worst dive in years, what have you done differently, I know by reading your posts you must be killing the market, what is your secret?View attachment 3120
Love you!
Norman

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, It is only out of respect for you I did not make a comment in regards to Mr. R's comments. This is your home and I respect that and so I will honor your decision (which my last post reflects). Please don't let this create any type of strain between us Birch - as very few have gained my respect more than you; but I am very happy with Tom's Post - The Moderators' Posts - and the other posts. I will stop there because there is too much I could say (and only out of respect for you will I close now).

Robo - thank you for adding such valuable infomation at a time that many of us are hurting - I think that is a big part of why Birch is so valuable to all of us. THANK YOU to all the other MB Members and guests. I have probably offended many (but it was not intentional) and made a lot of enemies (because I talk about anything and everything) - but deep down I'm a good person and honestly hope that we can all gain from each other.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What I really want is a 1969 Datsun 2000 Fairlady Starlite Coupe.

The so-called Fed Model compares the market's valuation with the yield on the Treasury bonds to determine whether stocks are cheap or expensive compared with bonds. Right now, the model is signaling that stocks are very cheap. Stocks are a bargain and Treasurys are massively overpriced. This model is currently giving us a reading somewhere close to + 110 when a negative 30 tells us the market is expensive.

With the past week's downturn, stocks in the S&P 500 index are trading at 13 times their expected earnings for 2008. Last June, when the S&P index was 12% higher than it is now, stocks were priced at 14.2 times this year's earnings. Meanwhile, with a U.S. recession now widely expected and the Federal Reserve thought likely to cut short-term rates further, U.S. Treasury yields have fallen sharply. The 10-year Treasury note is yielding 3.64%, its lowest level since July 2003, and down from 3.81% a week ago.

Last summer, analysts' forecasts called for a 7.7% rise in earnings for companies in the S&P 500 last year. In large part as a result of the multi-billion dollar write-downs of losses on problem mortgage investments, it now appears that earnings generated by S&P firms will have fallen 3.3% in 2007, once all reports are in. S&P stocks are changing hands at about 15 times earnings for the past 12 months, below the average of 19.4 times trailing earnings since 1988.

All through 2004, 2005 earnings were running way ahead of the market and the market was playing catch up. What happens now if the market runs up and earnings have to plat catch up this time around. That would certainly catch most market pundits by surprise - anything can happen in the coiled environment.

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us

 

[CorMaGa34]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With all due respect to Birchtree's account talk,

You need to start adding something of value to this site, even if it's concrete evidence to support your claims, or we'll have to let you go. Constant criticizing without substance does not work around here. You're getting on the members' nerves.[/quote]

IMHO Mr. R just needs some attention. Evidently he is not getting enough. He shows up when there's something negative to say, so who cares? We give him the attention he craves, by replying to negative remarks. Like airlift said, let's not make him happy wasting our time and energy... Tom already spoke up, and I liked it.

V/R,

Cormaga34

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

IMHO Mr. R just needs some attention. Evidently he is not getting enough. He shows up when there's something negative to say, so who cares? We give him the attention he craves, by replying to negative remarks. Like airlift said, let's not make him happy wasting our time and energy... Tom already spoke up, and I liked it.

V/R,

Cormaga34

Yeah... in regards to wasting time and energy, this brings to mind one ex member who is now on the naughty list.

Can you guess his name??? :toung:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Anyone up for refinancing? The 30 year mortgage rate is now at 5.75%. However, to get the best rates under the new risk-based guidelines, homowners need a credit score over 679, or equity of greater than 30%. But as home prices fall in many markets, homeowners' equity sinks alongside it - making it tough to get more attractive rates. The risk-based guidelines impose so-called delivery fees that range between 0.75% and 2% of the mortgage value for consumers with credit scores below 680. The highest fees are charged to those with credit scores below 620. Yup, they surely are making it easy.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

OK here is the worst case scenario - bleed them puppies some more and perhaps they'll learn something for next time.

"Overall, the losses experienced by major financial players are shaping up to turn the housing bust and ensuing credit crunch into a calamity that will rival, and likely surpass, previous financial crises. The $100 billion in losses racked up on Wall Street compares with about $170 billion in losses from the savings and loan crisis in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Both figures may seem small compared with the $2 trillion in wealth lost following the bursting of the tech bubble, but the more than $100 billion in subprime write-downs on Wall Street is the tip of an iceberg.

Some housing experts suggest that home prices will have to fall 20% to 30% to return to realistic levels. That could result in an overall loss of wealth in the U.S. of $4 trillion to $6 trillion. Big banks such as Citigroup are holding on to more of the loans they make, rather than sell them to investors. That requires that they set aside more capital on their balance sheet, a move that drags on future earnings growth." I'd rather see slower growth and fewer write-downs.

http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With all due respect to Birchtree's account talk,

You need to start adding something of value to this site, even if it's concrete evidence to support your claims, or we'll have to let you go. Constant criticizing without substance does not work around here. You're getting on the members' nerves.

IMHO Mr. R just needs some attention. Evidently he is not getting enough. He shows up when there's something negative to say, so who cares? We give him the attention he craves, by replying to negative remarks. Like airlift said, let's not make him happy wasting our time and energy... Tom already spoke up, and I liked it.

V/R,

Cormaga34[/quote]
ok heres some more neg a tory news for ol forgien holders...the markets oversea 's is tanking on bad....does not bode well for the usa markets on tuesday......be right ...be out.....down it goes

 

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ooh Really?

and..Is that the best you can keep coming up with?

lol

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Simply, stocks share their greatest upside when there's the maximum amount of slack in the economy. And slack is basically the room to grow the economy without igniting inflation. Over the long haul, the economy - and particularly its prospects for sustainable growth - are what drive the stock market. A bottoming economy has the greatest room for sustainable growth. Consequently, the best time to buy stocks throughout history has been when the economy has hit bottom. Big declines in the stock market tend to create enormous economic slack and ultimately lead to huge returns for stocks."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/rconrad/2008/0119.html

The Nikkie being down 400 points doesn't bother me - I only have a 22% position in the I fund.

 

[mayday]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When is the pain going to stop Birch? When everyone decides to get out of the market?

 

[Rod]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

When is the pain going to stop Birch? When everyone decides to get out of the market?

The market (not the individual investor) hasn't began to feel any real pain yet.