Birchtree's Account Talk

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Re: Birchtree's account talk

asian markets down sharply...fortis with 1.5 billion subprime writeoff.....the beat goes on...whens it ever gonna end.......the ol bear is alive and well and having prime rib for dinner...........:nuts:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

down down down birch...eveerything os is down birch....the bull has seen its day and the ol bear will now see his......stay long...stay strong...but i ll just stay on the side lines some what longer....thats my position and i m sticking with it.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks for your posts, Birchtree. I read you every day and try to take heart. I'm curious if you stayed bullish through the last long bear market or if some indicators revealed what it was? If so, when did they tell you it was a bear with a long ways to continue down?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The A/D line was going down for two years while prices were continuing to go up into 2000. That was a classic signal that something was going to happen. I was fortunate enough to have stayed away from the over hyped technology sector - I prefered the dull and boring approach and collected my dividends that were reinvested. I was leaning heavily into the small cap sector and simply accepted my pain levels as temporary. I stayed in the C fund and continued my dollar cost averaging all the way down hurting myself indiscriminately and eventually switching into the S fund catching the 2003 ride up with further DCAing. I switched back to the C fund in early 2004 and continued the DCAing smelling like a rose. You simply have to sit tight using your dollar cost averaging as the portfolio redeemer. I've already had about 12 companies increase their dividends this year - that will buy me more stock at lower prices. I fully expect to see many more dividend increases as time goes on. Most corrections should be viewed as opportunities. My oceanic account has been devalued to the tune of around $300K during this correction and I'm handling it just fine - I could actually take more profits if desired but I want to leave my asset base intact for the turn around. Whe the rocket ride arrives then I'll peel off some gains and go back and lend a hand to the waiting wall flowers. Spring is just around the corner and plenty of manure is what I need to nurture the potential gains. I'm bullish as all hell to get up and go.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Inorder to be a successful trader:
1)Do a couple thoudand trades over a 10 year period,
2)Lose a large amount of money 2 or 3 times and scare the sh_t out of yourself,
3)Have a big enough bankroll to comfortably ride out #1, #2.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain said:
Birch - I'm getting sick and tired of this losing horses### :suspicious: and figure the best thing to do is just ride this SOB out and catch the next gain - cause as soon as I step out I'll miss it.
Click to expand...


Thanks Birch,
Sometimes telling the right person gets the job done.:)
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

A few succinct words from Brian Wesbury today. "It is hard to imagine any time in history when such rampant pessimism about the economy has existed with so little evidence of serious trouble. Housing is now a small share of GDP (4.5%). And it has fallen so much already that it is highly unlikely to drive the economy into recession all by itself. Exports are 12% of the economy, and are growing at a 13.6% rate. The boom in exports is overwhelming the loss from housing. Personal income is up 6.1% during the year ending in November. Models based on recent monetary and tax policy suggest real GDP will grow at a 3% to 3.5% rate in 2008, while the probability of recession this year is 10%. This was true before recent rate cuts and stimulus packages. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates by 175 basis points, the odds of a huge surge in growth later in 2008 have grown." This bull is staying strapped into his seat....zoom. Snort.

http://online.wsj.com/public/us
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree said:
A few succinct words from Brian Wesbury today. "It is hard to imagine any time in history when such rampant pessimism about the economy has existed with so little evidence of serious trouble. Housing is now a small share of GDP (4.5%). And it has fallen so much already that it is highly unlikely to drive the economy into recession all by itself. Exports are 12% of the economy, and are growing at a 13.6% rate. The boom in exports is overwhelming the loss from housing. Personal income is up 6.1% during the year ending in November. Models based on recent monetary and tax policy suggest real GDP will grow at a 3% to 3.5% rate in 2008, while the probability of recession this year is 10%. This was true before recent rate cuts and stimulus packages. Now that the Fed has cut interest rates by 175 basis points, the odds of a huge surge in growth later in 2008 have grown." This bull is staying strapped into his seat....zoom. Snort.

http://online.wsj.com/public/us
Click to expand...


Birch, my problem with this bullish scenario is persistently high oil prices. Since petroleum is linked to a large part of our economy, including transportation and material costs, this additional large jump in these costs must be passed along at some point, which will cause an even larger jump in inflation. The fed could be forced to choose between adding to inflation by lowering rates to maintain growth or constaining both growth and inflation by raising rates. Or, we could be in a sort of 70's "stagflation" period.

What are your thoughts on this?
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

presskh said:
Birch, my problem with this bullish scenario is persistently high oil prices. Since petroleum is linked to a large part of our economy, including transportation and material costs, this additional large jump in these costs must be passed along at some point, which will cause an even larger jump in inflation. The fed could be forced to choose between adding to inflation by lowering rates to maintain growth or constaining both growth and inflation by raising rates. Or, we could be in a sort of 70's "stagflation" period.
Click to expand...

As long as the government keeps freely giving out borrowed money and printing more, we'll ignore the costs of living.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Put a solar panel on your roof and buy a smaller hybrid car would be my answer to rising oil prices. There is still only limited evidence of a bleed through to the consumer - if we are having a mid-cycle slowdown the price of oil will soften.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch,
Thank you for your influence - honestly - is much appreciated. Put half in C in your honor and it really paid off. A half hour left and things are on the upswing. :D
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

The CO NYSE breadth MCO closed yesterday at +30.63 and today at +45.97. The MCSUM is curling to the upside so ever gentle. The MCO divergent structures are still intact with bottoms above bottoms pattern. This could end up being my first ever $100K week if the present momentum continues - that would leave me only $200K more to go to get even. With record short positions and cash looking for a warm fuzzy tomorrow has the potential to be rocket explosive - I'm ready for the ride if it happens. If Flash Gordon shows up please protect your necks from strain.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

There is good evidence that an important price bottom did occur last week. If the MCO can take out the December highs this would give us another technical breadth thrust. If this happens this thrust would secure the internal lows just recently seen last week. Exports grew at a 3.9% pace, compared with a sizzling 19.1% growth rate in the third quarter. Not much of a contribution to Q4. Remember, it's not people buying that makes prices go up, it's prices going up that make people buy.

The midcycle slowdown periods of the mid 1980s and mid 1990s were accompanied by relatively meaningful expansions in stock prices. Declining long term rates are a very powerful equity market aphrodisiac. And for the new folks that may be reading: You can't do what everyone else does and expect different results.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Go Flash!! The CO NYSE breadth MCO has continued to move higher and is now well above its zero line and this basically confirms that bull divergence is behind us now and the bulls have control of things for the short term. Let's do a 375 point gain today - please.
 
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