-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com
-
Please read our AutoTracker policy on the IFT deadline and remaining active. Thanks!
-
$ - Premium Service Content (Info) | AutoTracker Monthly Winners | Is Gmail et al, Blocking Our emails?
Find us on: Facebook & X | Posting Copyrighted Material
-
Join the TSP Talk AutoTracker: How to Get Started | Login | Main AutoTracker Page
-
The Forum works well on MOBILE devices without an app: Just go to: https://forum.tsptalk.com ...
Or you can now use TapaTalk again!
Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
So much for that 375 point gain today - there's always tomorrow. I do think however that the A/D line was positive. I managed to keep my asset base intact and the pain was delicious all the way down to the bottom of the well - now we'll see if these stocks will help me achieve my goals for the year. Managing a portfolio is like tending a garden. A gardener thinks about incremental improvements - harvesting some vegetables and fruit and sowing a few seeds at any given time, but not plowing under the whole garden every year - that's how it's done in North Florida.
So much for that 375 point gain today - there's always tomorrow. I do think however that the A/D line was positive. I managed to keep my asset base intact and the pain was delicious all the way down to the bottom of the well - now we'll see if these stocks will help me achieve my goals for the year. Managing a portfolio is like tending a garden. A gardener thinks about incremental improvements - harvesting some vegetables and fruit and sowing a few seeds at any given time, but not plowing under the whole garden every year - that's how it's done in North Florida.
Mr recognizer
Banned
- Reaction score
- 0
Re: Birchtree's account talk
the ol garden only needs the right mix of fertilizer birch....just sprinkle it on and watch it grow.....sow and reap...thats what the good book sez......you are on the road to riches ...keep up the good work.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thanks for the encouragement there Mr. recognizer. Yes I am on the way to riches because I have planned my portfolio and I have an excess of sweet smelling superlative manure to spread around - would you like a wheelbarrow full dropped on your front porch. I'm almost sure that we had an important price bottom occur last week. The key reversal, the high TRIN numbers, high VIX, the oversold volume oscillators, all of this highly suggests this to be the case. The trap is being set to catch many a poor bear while they are eating their porridge. I'm reminded that where stupidity is practiced, suffering soon follows. Am I stupid - sometimes, do I enjoy suffering - sometimes, as they say no pain, no gain. The economy may slow in 2008, but that doesn't necessarily mean bad news for stocks in the longer run. Slower growth could be a boon as investors lose their fear that a sharp downturn or meddlesome inflation is on the way. Sometimes a moderate economy can actually extend the amount of time that the expansion can continue. Optimism about the economy is what will drive the second half stock market rally - patience now is the golden rule.
Thanks for the encouragement there Mr. recognizer. Yes I am on the way to riches because I have planned my portfolio and I have an excess of sweet smelling superlative manure to spread around - would you like a wheelbarrow full dropped on your front porch. I'm almost sure that we had an important price bottom occur last week. The key reversal, the high TRIN numbers, high VIX, the oversold volume oscillators, all of this highly suggests this to be the case. The trap is being set to catch many a poor bear while they are eating their porridge. I'm reminded that where stupidity is practiced, suffering soon follows. Am I stupid - sometimes, do I enjoy suffering - sometimes, as they say no pain, no gain. The economy may slow in 2008, but that doesn't necessarily mean bad news for stocks in the longer run. Slower growth could be a boon as investors lose their fear that a sharp downturn or meddlesome inflation is on the way. Sometimes a moderate economy can actually extend the amount of time that the expansion can continue. Optimism about the economy is what will drive the second half stock market rally - patience now is the golden rule.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
For those of us that were there - today is the 40th recognition of the 1968 Tet Offensive. The Tet Offensive was the beginning of the end of the Vietnam War, despite the fact that the attacks represented a massive military failure for the Viet Cong. And now Vietnam is heading toward capitalism and are trading partners. I won't talk about the betrayal of donkey President Johnson and the draft dodgers.
For those of us that were there - today is the 40th recognition of the 1968 Tet Offensive. The Tet Offensive was the beginning of the end of the Vietnam War, despite the fact that the attacks represented a massive military failure for the Viet Cong. And now Vietnam is heading toward capitalism and are trading partners. I won't talk about the betrayal of donkey President Johnson and the draft dodgers.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Vietnam Vets are my highest priority - because they were screwed over in so many ways. Like all soldiers they did what they needed to serve their country - and they did it with dignity and honor - earning the highest respect possible - BUT GOT NONE.
Many of these guys wake with dreams and nightmares from this war every night - often with cold sweats - and dread going to sleep because of this. Then they meet me - I give them a medication designed specifically to eliminate the dreams/nightmares and the results are the most miraculous I've ever seen - BECAUSE I FREE THEM FROM THAT ONGOING WAR.
Thank you Birch!!! You've got my highest respect.
Vietnam Vets are my highest priority - because they were screwed over in so many ways. Like all soldiers they did what they needed to serve their country - and they did it with dignity and honor - earning the highest respect possible - BUT GOT NONE.
Many of these guys wake with dreams and nightmares from this war every night - often with cold sweats - and dread going to sleep because of this. Then they meet me - I give them a medication designed specifically to eliminate the dreams/nightmares and the results are the most miraculous I've ever seen - BECAUSE I FREE THEM FROM THAT ONGOING WAR.
Thank you Birch!!! You've got my highest respect.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Ah memories- 40 years ago. 40 years ago my Father got the last R&R flight out of Saigon (they stopped them for a time because of the attacks)to meet me and my late mother in-where else-Honolulu. My first time to Hawaii. I'lll scan some pictures tonight. 40 years. Damn. Seems like yesterday-seems like a million years ago.
Ah memories- 40 years ago. 40 years ago my Father got the last R&R flight out of Saigon (they stopped them for a time because of the attacks)to meet me and my late mother in-where else-Honolulu. My first time to Hawaii. I'lll scan some pictures tonight. 40 years. Damn. Seems like yesterday-seems like a million years ago.
alevin
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 97
Re: Birchtree's account talk
My next door neighbor is VN vet, physically damaged from the war but was able to work, held down low-middle income jobs all these years that didn't allow him to save hardly anything-despite being responsible with credit. Had a stroke 1/5 years ago, had virtually no savings to carry him through a year of no income due to working at Walmart, various other sales commission jobs over the years. Very intelligent, fluent German, I asked him if he ever thought about college and GI bill when he came back stateside, he said no, after his VN experiences he couldn't sit still in structured classroom environments. He'd have been homeless, helpless (physcially incapacitated) winter a year ago without neighbors and church that came to the rescue through several months of no money where he kept getting eviction notices. Got turned down by SS disability 2x, VA disability took a year to come through. Came through last April, a year after the stroke. VA disability barely enough to live on but he's marginally getting by on $1000/month, with doctor bill collectors harassing him still. Point of the story, there are a lot of vets out there that carry subtle scars that don't surface until something else happens. Consequences of not being emotionally capable of doing the college grind and getting the college degree, led to desperate economic consequences way down the road decades later. Here's to all you guys, ones doing ok and all the others too. And to you Steady for being there for them.
My next door neighbor is VN vet, physically damaged from the war but was able to work, held down low-middle income jobs all these years that didn't allow him to save hardly anything-despite being responsible with credit. Had a stroke 1/5 years ago, had virtually no savings to carry him through a year of no income due to working at Walmart, various other sales commission jobs over the years. Very intelligent, fluent German, I asked him if he ever thought about college and GI bill when he came back stateside, he said no, after his VN experiences he couldn't sit still in structured classroom environments. He'd have been homeless, helpless (physcially incapacitated) winter a year ago without neighbors and church that came to the rescue through several months of no money where he kept getting eviction notices. Got turned down by SS disability 2x, VA disability took a year to come through. Came through last April, a year after the stroke. VA disability barely enough to live on but he's marginally getting by on $1000/month, with doctor bill collectors harassing him still. Point of the story, there are a lot of vets out there that carry subtle scars that don't surface until something else happens. Consequences of not being emotionally capable of doing the college grind and getting the college degree, led to desperate economic consequences way down the road decades later. Here's to all you guys, ones doing ok and all the others too. And to you Steady for being there for them.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
When I was in junior college in 71' you started to see the Viet Vets come in. Civilians now. One-oh man he was a riot-former enlisted-long hair-hippie-hash belt, jungle boots, watch cap with long hair and floppy mustache-but you would'nt screw with him. Oh we use to have the fireworks in Speech 101-The professor was a Republican and the vet and him use to go at it.
Another was a former Warrant Officer helicopter pilot-wounded-long hair-hippie like. Pretty much the same type. They didn't like some of the professors to well. Questioned any kind of authority. Heavy smokers and certainly 'heads' -term from back then.
On the last draft lottery my birthdate was the 53rd number pulled out of the jar and I was 151 on the list or something like that-so I had next to no chance of being in the service at that point.
Ah the draft-something you really thought about when you were young.
When I was in junior college in 71' you started to see the Viet Vets come in. Civilians now. One-oh man he was a riot-former enlisted-long hair-hippie-hash belt, jungle boots, watch cap with long hair and floppy mustache-but you would'nt screw with him. Oh we use to have the fireworks in Speech 101-The professor was a Republican and the vet and him use to go at it.
Another was a former Warrant Officer helicopter pilot-wounded-long hair-hippie like. Pretty much the same type. They didn't like some of the professors to well. Questioned any kind of authority. Heavy smokers and certainly 'heads' -term from back then.
On the last draft lottery my birthdate was the 53rd number pulled out of the jar and I was 151 on the list or something like that-so I had next to no chance of being in the service at that point.
Ah the draft-something you really thought about when you were young.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Thank you my friend, I appreciate it. I have a huge advantage over most of the Providers because first and foremost I am a soldier through and through - my bone marrow wreks of it - and that comes before wife, kids, relatives, and friends.
Many of the Vets - like you've described could have their lives completely changed by meeting the right person; someone who honestly understands why their brain functions the way it does and help them get back to their pre-war condition. But many have no clue their symptoms reflect an illness - and simply deal with it.
Thank you my friend, I appreciate it. I have a huge advantage over most of the Providers because first and foremost I am a soldier through and through - my bone marrow wreks of it - and that comes before wife, kids, relatives, and friends.
Many of the Vets - like you've described could have their lives completely changed by meeting the right person; someone who honestly understands why their brain functions the way it does and help them get back to their pre-war condition. But many have no clue their symptoms reflect an illness - and simply deal with it.
Bullitt
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 73
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Whenever it happens it's going to be ugly. I mean...
1. The rising levels of cash are aren't making as much as they were a month ago in money market accounts. Humans are greedy by nature. The gluttonous appeal of more money will only be attained by way of stocks as banks continue to adjust to the Fed's lowering of interest rates.
2. Short sellers on the rise. Lots of folks jumped into those inverse ETF's at precisely the wrong time. Who wants to hold on to a short position going into a weekend?
3. Smart money knows just the right levels they need to push in order to bring on a panic buying spree.
There's always going to be overhead resistance. I just hope Ferdinand reminds these folks to strap on their helmets for the ride up. We're going to be crashing thru alot of those silly lines in our way.
Whenever it happens it's going to be ugly. I mean...
1. The rising levels of cash are aren't making as much as they were a month ago in money market accounts. Humans are greedy by nature. The gluttonous appeal of more money will only be attained by way of stocks as banks continue to adjust to the Fed's lowering of interest rates.
2. Short sellers on the rise. Lots of folks jumped into those inverse ETF's at precisely the wrong time. Who wants to hold on to a short position going into a weekend?
3. Smart money knows just the right levels they need to push in order to bring on a panic buying spree.
There's always going to be overhead resistance. I just hope Ferdinand reminds these folks to strap on their helmets for the ride up. We're going to be crashing thru alot of those silly lines in our way.
hessian
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 23
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Quote: Nnuut's Acct Talk:
Originally Posted by Birchtree
Smokey gets gored tomorrow by Ferdinand. Saturday news headlines.
Birch, We breached, flirted with, and finally closed above the 20dma today in the S&P! Significant! Hope you'll wash and feed Ferdinand really good tonight so he's on top of game for tomorrow!
VR
Quote: Nnuut's Acct Talk:
Originally Posted by Birchtree
Smokey gets gored tomorrow by Ferdinand. Saturday news headlines.
Birch, We breached, flirted with, and finally closed above the 20dma today in the S&P! Significant! Hope you'll wash and feed Ferdinand really good tonight so he's on top of game for tomorrow!
VR
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The government reported yesterday that the economy grew a slower than expected 0.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2007. These are preliminary results and may be subject to upward revision. Most of the weakness stemmed from companies trimming inventories, which makes future production cuts less likely. Consumer spending slowed, though to a still respectable pace. Maybe all the export numbers were not compiled.
The Fed's 2.25 percentage points in rate cuts since September almost equals that of 2001 as the most rapid in two decades. The shorts are dearly trapped for sure. Mortgage rates have dropped in the past month, and that has enabled many borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages either to refinance into fixed-rate mortgages or see their current mortgages adjust to rates one to three percentage points lower than would have been the case last July. That means foreclosures may be less than expected, the drop in home prices means many borrowers will be unable to take advantage of lower rates, limiting the benefit. Ferdinand likes that set up. If home prices fall 10%, a mortgage that was originally 95% of the home's value is now 105% and the owner may be required to bring some equity to the table in order to refinance.
In the last few weeks, expectations for inflation a few years from now, measured by the behavior of Treasury-protected bonds, has risen by a quarter percentage point. While Mr. Bernanke won't welcome that, he will likely conclude that the weaker economy he now expects, together with stable to lower energy prices, will help suppress those inflation pressures."
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
"The government reported yesterday that the economy grew a slower than expected 0.6% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2007. These are preliminary results and may be subject to upward revision. Most of the weakness stemmed from companies trimming inventories, which makes future production cuts less likely. Consumer spending slowed, though to a still respectable pace. Maybe all the export numbers were not compiled.
The Fed's 2.25 percentage points in rate cuts since September almost equals that of 2001 as the most rapid in two decades. The shorts are dearly trapped for sure. Mortgage rates have dropped in the past month, and that has enabled many borrowers with adjustable-rate mortgages either to refinance into fixed-rate mortgages or see their current mortgages adjust to rates one to three percentage points lower than would have been the case last July. That means foreclosures may be less than expected, the drop in home prices means many borrowers will be unable to take advantage of lower rates, limiting the benefit. Ferdinand likes that set up. If home prices fall 10%, a mortgage that was originally 95% of the home's value is now 105% and the owner may be required to bring some equity to the table in order to refinance.
In the last few weeks, expectations for inflation a few years from now, measured by the behavior of Treasury-protected bonds, has risen by a quarter percentage point. While Mr. Bernanke won't welcome that, he will likely conclude that the weaker economy he now expects, together with stable to lower energy prices, will help suppress those inflation pressures."
http://online.wsj.com/public/us
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Looks like a great start this morning Birch
I'm still in G but I see you're rising to the top and I'm thrilled for that; we'll hope you get at least another 1%.
Looks like a great start this morning Birch
I'm still in G but I see you're rising to the top and I'm thrilled for that; we'll hope you get at least another 1%.
Mr recognizer
Banned
- Reaction score
- 0
Re: Birchtree's account talk
f 1525 on the s&p....wave 7 pattern with an x+n2 bias that predicts this breakout....back up the truck folks...you don't want to miss this move....
the time to buy is now!my tables have now turned positive awaiting an explosion to the upside o
f 1525 on the s&p....wave 7 pattern with an x+n2 bias that predicts this breakout....back up the truck folks...you don't want to miss this move....
Corepuncher
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 40
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Those indicators are probably fine for when the market is behaving "normally"...but fringe events do occur and this may be one of them.
Didn't you just say "The bear is gonna eat them bulls up?".
Check out the diverging S&P and 10 year yield thur and fri..
IMO...the bond people are smarter (in the whole) and less emotional that the stocks people. to me, the bond action is what I would expect given the ECONOMIC DATA (sans emotion).
Those indicators are probably fine for when the market is behaving "normally"...but fringe events do occur and this may be one of them.
Didn't you just say "The bear is gonna eat them bulls up?".
Check out the diverging S&P and 10 year yield thur and fri..
IMO...the bond people are smarter (in the whole) and less emotional that the stocks people. to me, the bond action is what I would expect given the ECONOMIC DATA (sans emotion).
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
It don't mean a thing...I'm so deep in the superlative bull manure at this point it will be easy to make serious money. The NYAD line has moved above its 5% and 10% components and at 9247 is pushing towards the 200 EMA. Mindy Lou says be right and sit tight. Even if we have a deep retest, as long as the MCO bottoms above bottoms remain intact, that's all that counts. As long as these divergent structures hold (currently at +55.99), price can continue to move lower without destroying this divergence. We have to remain above -40 or so on the MCO. All we need to do to build even better internal strength would be to have a lower close than that of last Tuesday, and continue to hold these same MCO divergent structures. I think we've already had our retest compressed as a key reversal. We also now have bullish divergent structure of the MCSUM as an intermediate tool.
It don't mean a thing...I'm so deep in the superlative bull manure at this point it will be easy to make serious money. The NYAD line has moved above its 5% and 10% components and at 9247 is pushing towards the 200 EMA. Mindy Lou says be right and sit tight. Even if we have a deep retest, as long as the MCO bottoms above bottoms remain intact, that's all that counts. As long as these divergent structures hold (currently at +55.99), price can continue to move lower without destroying this divergence. We have to remain above -40 or so on the MCO. All we need to do to build even better internal strength would be to have a lower close than that of last Tuesday, and continue to hold these same MCO divergent structures. I think we've already had our retest compressed as a key reversal. We also now have bullish divergent structure of the MCSUM as an intermediate tool.
Mr recognizer
Banned
- Reaction score
- 0
Re: Birchtree's account talk
agreed birch...this market has legs and will power thru the 1500 mark in no time.....the big move has yet to come....i m with you ....be right ...sit tight....s&p 500 up 4.7% this week alone and more to come...the fed and congress will be there for us...how can we go wrong.......lets ride that bull birch and leave that ol bear in the cave hibernating....riding it all the way up and harvesting that garden....
Similar threads
