Birchtree's Account Talk

[Mr recognizer]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

kudlow on cnbc tonight.....sez another 1000 pts on the dow and the market explodes north like a rocket..what a great american he is and i agree..... ride this thing to the upper heights .....the fed and congress have done the right thing and they could also give us as many rebates and tax cuts as we need ...and they also can take care of the bad loans for all so why cant we all be prosperous....its a new beginning for us all..all is well now as we can get mor5e rebates as w need them so everything now will be just fine....its time to be 100% long on stocks...dont miss the ride up!:suspicious:

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It was darn close but still no cigar. My oceanic account closed out the week up $86K - I would have made the $100K if it weren't for the $15K give back on Wednesday. Well there's next week. My friends at Merrill are thinking momentum confirmations suggest that a test of the recent lows are likely, but sentiment suggests that the test will be successful. Since they are mostly trend followers I'm not paying them any attention. It's very important that the MCOs make higher highs from here - and not just of the last several weeks, or months, but more in the area of years. As of Friday many of the index MCOs are at three year highs.

 

[caymanbrac12]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It was darn close but still no cigar. My oceanic account closed out the week up $86K - I would have made the $100K if it weren't for the $15K give back on Wednesday. Well there's next week. My friends at Merrill are thinking momentum confirmations suggest that a test of the recent lows are likely, but sentiment suggests that the test will be successful. Since they are mostly trend followers I'm not paying them any attention. It's very important that the MCOs make higher highs from here - and not just of the last several weeks, or months, but more in the area of years. As of Friday many of the index MCOs are at three year highs.

I find it iteresting - not in a bad way the moniker you give for your larger account - that being oceanic - because feeling dwarfed is relative too so many people who have made making money a career and what's a great deal to someone is pocket change at best to others even though this is stating the obvious but what makes you happy is really the only important thing. Best of luck with your oceanic account - may it multiply geometrically along with your tugboat.

Greg

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Greg,

I call my Merrill account the oceanic because it would be impossible to make any rapid turns - same problem an oceanliner would have. Now I could make a call and short the "box" but then I'd have to come up with the dividends. That might be a consideration at Dow 17,000 but not at Dow 14,000. Anyway the dividends are all rolling down hill like in a pin ball machine getting good prices. I held my asset base during this correction paying a price for my sacrifice - now we'll see if the toxic mixture can help me back to even and then forward. I have 51 remaining issues that I want to add to as we proceed from here - just waiting to peel off some profit from a few queens to gather a few more wall flowers. Tim Wood has been saying that his data is now confirming the October 2007 high as having marked the top of what has , in fact, proven to be the second longest 4-year cycle (stretched) in stock market history. If he is correct then we are entering the first quadrant of a new 4-year cycle that is coincident with the 9 month cycle - it's Flash Gordon time.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There are now clearcut initiation breadth thrusts on most indexes. The NY MCSUM has cleared the December highs with the next objective the zero line. The NYMO is at +80. The NYAD line has shot up past its 1% trend (200 day EMA). Pull backs from this juncture should be considered as selective intermediate term buy points, and with various market breadth and volume MCOs having moved to 3 year highs, there should be enough thrust behind us to challenge the October price highs (14,164). If we can get the NYAD back to new all-time highs during this sequence, then Dow 15,900 is within radar range.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The Public/NYSE short ratio has put in yet another high and we view this a very bullish development. Once again the fact that the Indices closed up on the strongest volume ever was a very bullish development."

http://www.[[financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/ti/2008/0202.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The move higher on the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now given a nice post expansion to the upside on the CONYSE breadth MCSUM - and so it appears money is now moving in at a brisker pace than earlier this week. Breadth of market refers to the number of issues in which money is movinbg into. The MCO measures the short term trend of the A/D line - it gives advance warning of what the A/D line is likely to do in the future.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The retail equity options buy to open (BTO) put-cal (PC) ratios are now showing preferences to the bear side. These are the smallest option traders (1 to 10 contracts per transaction). Last week the BTO PC ratio rose to 0.67 for the smallest equity traders. Looks like their expectations are rally failure. This group does have a habit of increasing favoritism for puts into initial price thrusts from important price bottoms. The largest retail options traders (transactions over 50 contracts) are getting more bullish. The retail players with the deepest pockets are not following the trend of the smaller, nost as well funded option players".

http://online.wsj.com/public/us

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Chief executive officers, directors and other senior officials in corporate America are buying more of their companies shares than they're selling for the first time since 1995, prompting growing confidence the stock market is poised to rally for the rest of the year. The last seven times insiders bought more than they sold, between 1988 and 1995, the SPX rallied an average 21 percent in the following 12 months. The purchases show executives believe the worst may be over after stocks suffered the biggest January drop in 18 years on signs the economy is in a resession".

http://online.wsj.com/public/us

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If we don't perk up after lunch I'm going to shut down and go wash and wax my green beauty. My dividends will continue to do the heavy lifting even if we are in a bear market - it doesn't really bother me that much. I'd prefer to make my buys close to the bottom.

 

[coach222]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Chief executive officers, directors and other senior officials in corporate America are buying more of their companies shares than they're selling for the first time since 1995, prompting growing confidence the stock market is poised to rally for the rest of the year. The last seven times insiders bought more than they sold, between 1988 and 1995, the SPX rallied an average 21 percent in the following 12 months. The purchases show executives believe the worst may be over after stocks suffered the biggest January drop in 18 years on signs the economy is in a resession".

http://online.wsj.com/public/us

Insiders 10 dumbest moves

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/CompanyFocus/CorporateInsiders10DumbestMoves.aspx

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Trying to stay creative and find some positive hi-lights. The NYAD (Daily) cumulative closed below the EMA (200) at 163029.00. The EMA (200) ia at 164777.91. The MCO is at +21.07 on a snap back to the zero line. The NYAD is still above the components of EMA (19) and EMA (39). Tomorrow could be a McCain market.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

After making multi year highs last week, the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued lower yesterday in its technical attempt to snap back to or towards its zero line - now at +5.42. The overall structure still remains positive. The odds suggest this is a bottoming process. The harder prices are slammed, the better the response in embracing the move and major bottoms are created this way. Because both the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM, and the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM remains under the influence of an intermediate term declining tops line and until this line of negative influence is broken, the bears will have control of the action in this time frame. And because of this, much of any further rally from here will be like taking one step forward and two steps back. What's the best way to keep the majority from realizing new trend developments? Shakeouts - rarely does anyone buy at the lows. Birchtree does as often as possible. Shakeouts are designed to keep the majority from buying at wholesale. However, the strength of the short term trend as measured by the CO NYSE breadth MCO, strongly suggests that the NYAD line will be back in a bullish configuration shortly. It's easy to be a bear and it requires creativity to remain bullish. Snort.

 

[Bullitt]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

It's easy to be a bear and it requires creativity to remain bullish. Snort.

Historically, Bulls have been correct more often. The proof is the pudding, just take a look at the long term chart. Wonder how Investors are handling the 'Pullback' they were wishing for merely 4 trading days ago?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think Romney will make a great running mate for McCain as vice-president.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The period of 1998-2003 is really an interesting and facinating piece of market history. The NYAD was in a steady decline from early 1998 to 2000 and after the crash in 1998, each time was turned DOWN at the 200 day E MA until the end of 2000. During this time, the broad indexes continued to move upward due to a large cap bubble/frenzied speculation, which on the cap-weighted indexes, drove the indexes higher and higher on less and less broad support, until of course the bottom dropped out. The current situation is quite different with the NYAD still in an upward mode through mid 2007 and above the 200 day EMA until just the last 3 months. The advance - decline lines are looking better, meaning better participation in the rallies. Hedge funds have sharply cut back their long euro-dollar holdings, meaning they now expect the dollar to strengthen or at least stabilize against the single currency. And they are also pulling back on S&P 500 shorts. Deutsche Bank lost money but did not take any subprime writedowns for the 4th quarter.

 

[southbeachrat]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think Romney will make a great running mate for McCain as vice-president.

Yes, I agree but had not given it much thought before you suggested it.

I was too busy thinking about a Clinton-Obama ticket. Gonna be an interesting race if nothing else.

My vote will go with the ticket that will be best for my wallet. Call me mercenary. lol

I'm not a bull or a bear
or a Republican or a Democrat.
:cheesy:

 

[presskh]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I think Romney will make a great running mate for McCain as vice-president.

I wish it were the other way around. I have never personally liked McCain since he has been in public office. Not that I don't appreciate his service to our country, which I very much do - he just strikes me as a grumpy old man who lacks the business and leadership experience to effectively run the country. I also don't agree at all with his favoring amnesty for illegal aliens.

That being said, he certainly can't be worse than the one we have in there now!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Perhaps the greatest scandal of the mortgage crisis is that it is a direct result of an intentional loosening of underwriting standards - done in the name of ending discrimination, despite warnings that it could lead to wide-scale defaults. These days, everyone claims to favor strong lending standards. What happened to all those self-righteous newspapers, politicians and regulators who were intent on loosening lending standards. As you might expect, they are now self-righteously blaming those, such as Countrywide, who did what they were told.

 

[wv-girl]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Perhaps the greatest scandal of the mortgage crisis is that it is a direct result of an intentional loosening of underwriting standards - done in the name of ending discrimination, despite warnings that it could lead to wide-scale defaults. These days, everyone claims to favor strong lending standards. What happened to all those self-righteous newspapers, politicians and regulators who were intent on loosening lending standards. As you might expect, they are now self-righteously blaming those, such as Countrywide, who did what they were told.

Does the phrase "Be careful want you ask for" come to mind? This argument could be used in almost all aspects of our society if you think about it. It is a shame that we all have to pay dearly for it. And they call this progress? Go figure.