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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Did the 9 month actually bottom last Friday when the Dow was down 256 points? Cyclically, the pulse of the market place is not reacting as one would expect coming out of a typical 9 month low. The NYAD line found resistance right at its 1% Trend (200 day EMA) - if the 9 month low has passed there would have been enough thrust to push this indicator back through and above this same longer term trend line. However for now the NYAD line remains witrhin the confines of its symmetrical triangle. Perhaps this week we'll get some initial thrust - the 9 month can certainly be late to nest. I'm watching the Utility index which has a previous high of 552.74 and today put us at 446. A new all-time high in the DJUA would imply that the multi-year uptrends in the S&P 500 and DJIA could continue into the second and third quarters of 2008 before being at further risk for a reversal.
Did the 9 month actually bottom last Friday when the Dow was down 256 points? Cyclically, the pulse of the market place is not reacting as one would expect coming out of a typical 9 month low. The NYAD line found resistance right at its 1% Trend (200 day EMA) - if the 9 month low has passed there would have been enough thrust to push this indicator back through and above this same longer term trend line. However for now the NYAD line remains witrhin the confines of its symmetrical triangle. Perhaps this week we'll get some initial thrust - the 9 month can certainly be late to nest. I'm watching the Utility index which has a previous high of 552.74 and today put us at 446. A new all-time high in the DJUA would imply that the multi-year uptrends in the S&P 500 and DJIA could continue into the second and third quarters of 2008 before being at further risk for a reversal.
alevin
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 97
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birchtree, I haven't had time to watch events today til now, noticed the UA is all the way up to 546.79 end of day, will stay tuned tomorrow when I have a little time to see what's
happening during the day. Guess I don't understand relationship of alltime high DJUA to future trend DJIA and S&P, could you elaborate a little how you figured that out?
Birchtree, I haven't had time to watch events today til now, noticed the UA is all the way up to 546.79 end of day, will stay tuned tomorrow when I have a little time to see what's
happening during the day. Guess I don't understand relationship of alltime high DJUA to future trend DJIA and S&P, could you elaborate a little how you figured that out?
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The Utility index has landed at 555.63 which is a new all-time high. Historical data indicates there won't be a market reversal until well into 2008 - and that moves as the Utility index continues to push higher. The broader U.S. equity market typically does not peak as utilities are making new highs. The utilities have achieved a significant breakout above the 2000 highs. I'm also keeping an eye on the DJ Transportation Index. A rally through October's recovery high (5023) would represent a move through important chart resistance and a decisive penetration of the new post-July downtrend line. Such a breakout would necessitate the establishment of a new uptrend line. Since 1981 there have been five occasions on which both the S&P 500 and DJIA declined by at least 15%. A peak in the DJUA led four of those declines by 5 to 7 months and was coincident once. At no time did the DJUA lag.
The Utility index has landed at 555.63 which is a new all-time high. Historical data indicates there won't be a market reversal until well into 2008 - and that moves as the Utility index continues to push higher. The broader U.S. equity market typically does not peak as utilities are making new highs. The utilities have achieved a significant breakout above the 2000 highs. I'm also keeping an eye on the DJ Transportation Index. A rally through October's recovery high (5023) would represent a move through important chart resistance and a decisive penetration of the new post-July downtrend line. Such a breakout would necessitate the establishment of a new uptrend line. Since 1981 there have been five occasions on which both the S&P 500 and DJIA declined by at least 15%. A peak in the DJUA led four of those declines by 5 to 7 months and was coincident once. At no time did the DJUA lag.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
This stock has been acting like a year 2000 technology play - only they will have good earnings. Where she lands from this point is only a guess - but I'm in for the ride at least until they declare a split. My potential profit is burning a small hole in my pocket but I'll hold out looking for more gain and perhaps peel off some more when it gets over $100. I spent four years setting this one up and the final target is still 400 yards in the distance. You might consider taking a peek at TRA. I'm in as low as $8.72 and as high as $25.33 and a good number of positions in between. This one is just getting started.
This stock has been acting like a year 2000 technology play - only they will have good earnings. Where she lands from this point is only a guess - but I'm in for the ride at least until they declare a split. My potential profit is burning a small hole in my pocket but I'll hold out looking for more gain and perhaps peel off some more when it gets over $100. I spent four years setting this one up and the final target is still 400 yards in the distance. You might consider taking a peek at TRA. I'm in as low as $8.72 and as high as $25.33 and a good number of positions in between. This one is just getting started.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Look at the years 2004 and 2005 for the Dow - the market has had periods of consolidation since the bull market trend was established in 2002. I believe the current trading range is another consolidation setting up the base for another extended leg up in the future. Let the silly bears unload - where will they make any money when interest rates are lower and we have a yield shortage. They'll all simply have an urge to buy back in coming late to the party. Snort.
Look at the years 2004 and 2005 for the Dow - the market has had periods of consolidation since the bull market trend was established in 2002. I believe the current trading range is another consolidation setting up the base for another extended leg up in the future. Let the silly bears unload - where will they make any money when interest rates are lower and we have a yield shortage. They'll all simply have an urge to buy back in coming late to the party. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Darn - everything I bought yesterday is cheaper today. And will probably get cheaper tomorrow - that's what happens when you look for the bottom - it's almost expected. It's a long term plan for my daughter so the dividends will really be working hard to buy those cheaper prices. Buy all the way down and buy all the way back up - it's a simple plan.
Darn - everything I bought yesterday is cheaper today. And will probably get cheaper tomorrow - that's what happens when you look for the bottom - it's almost expected. It's a long term plan for my daughter so the dividends will really be working hard to buy those cheaper prices. Buy all the way down and buy all the way back up - it's a simple plan.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Setting up for a triple bottom that takes us back to August '07 - may be forced to do some selective buying tomorrow. For a long term investor that indulges in pain this correction provides further potential for excellent prices to improve the dividend income flow.
Setting up for a triple bottom that takes us back to August '07 - may be forced to do some selective buying tomorrow. For a long term investor that indulges in pain this correction provides further potential for excellent prices to improve the dividend income flow.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I just finished up my oceanic buy list - there are 76 chosen wall flowers to buy, all I have to do is be greedy enough to pull the trigger. Hurt me Mr. Market - don't you know I bought the "holy grail" and delight in being hit by the train. No pain, no gain. These corrections will be remembered and will possibly keep the weak handed away from the markets even longer - that's actually the way it should work. Looking forward to an intra-day low tomorrow before we get some kind of a turn around. Snort.
I just finished up my oceanic buy list - there are 76 chosen wall flowers to buy, all I have to do is be greedy enough to pull the trigger. Hurt me Mr. Market - don't you know I bought the "holy grail" and delight in being hit by the train. No pain, no gain. These corrections will be remembered and will possibly keep the weak handed away from the markets even longer - that's actually the way it should work. Looking forward to an intra-day low tomorrow before we get some kind of a turn around. Snort.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
From TWSJ by Mark Gongloff - 1/9. Midcycle Slowdown, Best Scenario
"Wall Street has assumed a defensive crouch lately, bracing for recession. But what if the gloom about the economy turns out to be a head-fake?
It wouldn't be a first. In 1995, unemployment spiked, job growth briefly turned negative and the factory sector fell into a yearlong recession. Broader economic growth nearly came to a screeching halt, but rebounded and roared on until the decade's end. That pattern could describe the mid-1960s and mid-1980s.
We're at the midpoint of a midcycle slowdown, says Jeff Kleintop, a bull, and chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. He notes that business cycles in the 1980s and 1990s lasted about 10 years, despite stumbles midway through.
Optimists say a weak dollar will support exports, offsetting trouble from the housing sector. They add that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will keep the economy afloat, as in the mid-1990s. "You can't get a recession when the Fed is in the middle of an easing cycle," Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus says.
If the optimists are right, some markets could get spun around. Treasury bonds, which seem to be positioned for recession, could take a beating. The dollar could rally. The stock market has at least priced in a slowdown, but it isn't clear that it has braced for Armageddon yet.
The problem with the optimist view is that history might not be the right guide today. There is no law that says past business-cycle patterns must be repeated. Business cycles are simply responses to outside events. This housing bust is a bad event. So are $100 oil and the crunch hitting financial institutions. All could spell disappointment for anybody hoping a reassuring history is about to repeat."
I'm staying on the optimistic side - trying to be right and sitting tight. My stock MOS is really burning a hole in my pocket - I have a substantial profit but will wait for more gains to develope. Mosaic is priced for strong earnings growth. It trades at more than 66 times the past year's earnings, the kind of price/earnings ratio that sets off bubble alarms. Since earnings are rising so fast, it is trading at 17 times projected earnings for the year ahead. If the growth continues, the stock will do fine. But if demand slows, look out. I do have a mental stop as a sacrifice I'm willing to make not to look a gift horse in the mouth. But every time I sell they always go higher later. Snort.
www.online.wsj.com/public/us
From TWSJ by Mark Gongloff - 1/9. Midcycle Slowdown, Best Scenario
"Wall Street has assumed a defensive crouch lately, bracing for recession. But what if the gloom about the economy turns out to be a head-fake?
It wouldn't be a first. In 1995, unemployment spiked, job growth briefly turned negative and the factory sector fell into a yearlong recession. Broader economic growth nearly came to a screeching halt, but rebounded and roared on until the decade's end. That pattern could describe the mid-1960s and mid-1980s.
We're at the midpoint of a midcycle slowdown, says Jeff Kleintop, a bull, and chief market strategist at LPL Financial in Boston. He notes that business cycles in the 1980s and 1990s lasted about 10 years, despite stumbles midway through.
Optimists say a weak dollar will support exports, offsetting trouble from the housing sector. They add that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts will keep the economy afloat, as in the mid-1990s. "You can't get a recession when the Fed is in the middle of an easing cycle," Lehman Brothers economist Drew Matus says.
If the optimists are right, some markets could get spun around. Treasury bonds, which seem to be positioned for recession, could take a beating. The dollar could rally. The stock market has at least priced in a slowdown, but it isn't clear that it has braced for Armageddon yet.
The problem with the optimist view is that history might not be the right guide today. There is no law that says past business-cycle patterns must be repeated. Business cycles are simply responses to outside events. This housing bust is a bad event. So are $100 oil and the crunch hitting financial institutions. All could spell disappointment for anybody hoping a reassuring history is about to repeat."
I'm staying on the optimistic side - trying to be right and sitting tight. My stock MOS is really burning a hole in my pocket - I have a substantial profit but will wait for more gains to develope. Mosaic is priced for strong earnings growth. It trades at more than 66 times the past year's earnings, the kind of price/earnings ratio that sets off bubble alarms. Since earnings are rising so fast, it is trading at 17 times projected earnings for the year ahead. If the growth continues, the stock will do fine. But if demand slows, look out. I do have a mental stop as a sacrifice I'm willing to make not to look a gift horse in the mouth. But every time I sell they always go higher later. Snort.
www.online.wsj.com/public/us
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Selling pressure of the last week or so has been on the climactic side. Many of the McClellan MCOs broke to new lows last Friday and continued Tuesday. The 5-day MA of TRIN is at a level that happened only twice in 10 years - March 10, 2003 and February 28th, 2007. The percentage of stocks on NASDAQ trading above their 200-day MA is 20. As low as July 2002. The CO (common only) NYSE breadth MCO (McClellan Oscillator) moved to lower lows yesterday and is now highly oversold. Thisw lower low broke below the divergent lows built last summer. I'm looking for the July spike low to hold - or this will generate lower price objectives. Today was a good relief. The CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is noe testing its rising bottoms line over the last 6 months. The composite (all stocks) NYSE breadth MCO is not even close to testing these same points of reference and continue to support bottoms above bottoms. The difference between the common only and the composit is that interest rate sensitive stocks that make up the bulk of the composite are finding good money flow right now. Many of the MCSUMs are pretty far away from their zero lines and because of this price declines in this time period will tend to be scary. The more angst we build, the better the longer term bottom. Elliott wise we may just have experienced a 3 of 3 of C wave to the downside and I'll be looking forward to wave 4 to the upside.
Selling pressure of the last week or so has been on the climactic side. Many of the McClellan MCOs broke to new lows last Friday and continued Tuesday. The 5-day MA of TRIN is at a level that happened only twice in 10 years - March 10, 2003 and February 28th, 2007. The percentage of stocks on NASDAQ trading above their 200-day MA is 20. As low as July 2002. The CO (common only) NYSE breadth MCO (McClellan Oscillator) moved to lower lows yesterday and is now highly oversold. Thisw lower low broke below the divergent lows built last summer. I'm looking for the July spike low to hold - or this will generate lower price objectives. Today was a good relief. The CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is noe testing its rising bottoms line over the last 6 months. The composite (all stocks) NYSE breadth MCO is not even close to testing these same points of reference and continue to support bottoms above bottoms. The difference between the common only and the composit is that interest rate sensitive stocks that make up the bulk of the composite are finding good money flow right now. Many of the MCSUMs are pretty far away from their zero lines and because of this price declines in this time period will tend to be scary. The more angst we build, the better the longer term bottom. Elliott wise we may just have experienced a 3 of 3 of C wave to the downside and I'll be looking forward to wave 4 to the upside.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
On Tuesday Mr. Pisani on CNBC mentioned that there was a Titanic shift of money leaving the domestic markets for the overseas markets. To me they are overvalued. Emerging-markets stocks have notched a cumulative 383% total return over the past five years, versus 83% for the S&P 500 - stock index. If you have a disciplined bone in your body, you ought to shun today's international-investing craze, lighten up on foreign funds - and start buying American. Large-cap price-earnings ratios, relative to small caps, are at low levels, based on the range for the past 25 years. When you see all the Germans and the French in New York City filling up their suitcases, that tells you something. The U.S. markets will beckon this year IMHO. Talk about value - large-company share prices have performed so dismally this decade that the S&P 500-index remains 9% below its March 2000 bull market peak.
www.online.wsj.com/public/us
On Tuesday Mr. Pisani on CNBC mentioned that there was a Titanic shift of money leaving the domestic markets for the overseas markets. To me they are overvalued. Emerging-markets stocks have notched a cumulative 383% total return over the past five years, versus 83% for the S&P 500 - stock index. If you have a disciplined bone in your body, you ought to shun today's international-investing craze, lighten up on foreign funds - and start buying American. Large-cap price-earnings ratios, relative to small caps, are at low levels, based on the range for the past 25 years. When you see all the Germans and the French in New York City filling up their suitcases, that tells you something. The U.S. markets will beckon this year IMHO. Talk about value - large-company share prices have performed so dismally this decade that the S&P 500-index remains 9% below its March 2000 bull market peak.
www.online.wsj.com/public/us
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Too often, investors only look at the short and medium term trends in the markets. When we have had a year with exceptionally damaging sub-prime problems, it is time to step back and look at 5+ and 15+ year views. It is only the longer term views that can give you a clear picture of how much damage has been done."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9186.htm
"Too often, investors only look at the short and medium term trends in the markets. When we have had a year with exceptionally damaging sub-prime problems, it is time to step back and look at 5+ and 15+ year views. It is only the longer term views that can give you a clear picture of how much damage has been done."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9186.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"Next is the 10-year graph of the NYSE Composite Index (based on monthly data), indicating the price trend together with the MACD oscillator. The failed year-end rally in December witnessed the histograms falling below the zero line for the first time since the start of the bull market in 2003. The previous M ACD sell signal was given eight and a half years ago in July 1999."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9181.htm
"Next is the 10-year graph of the NYSE Composite Index (based on monthly data), indicating the price trend together with the MACD oscillator. The failed year-end rally in December witnessed the histograms falling below the zero line for the first time since the start of the bull market in 2003. The previous M ACD sell signal was given eight and a half years ago in July 1999."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-9181.htm
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