Birchtree's Account Talk

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

URGENT UPDATE​

The Wall Street Journal (online) - just posted that "the iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund topped the list midday Today for Buying on Weakness, which tracks stocks that fell in price but had the largest inflow of money". ​

That's good news for you Birch - as I've noted your gradual increases in the I Fund. But for me, I'm tired of the same old - same old - and trying to make sense of the +/- FV became too much of a hassel and too often I felt ripped off. ​

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From August through October, the most recently reported three months, the quantity of American imports, adjusted for inflation, was up just 1.1% from the same period of 2006. Over the same period, the volume of exports was up by 9.6%. Businesses are considering the US over Asia or their home markets to manufacture. The shifts could have wider ramifications for both the U.S. and European economies. In the U.S., new jobs created by European companies and a rise in orders for U.S. made parts and other supplies could help cushion the nation's economic slowdown. Finding ways to counter the effects of a strong currency is going to become increasingly important, as you get dollar levels that are more extreme, and European companies start to see the effects in their profits. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The final revision of Q3 GDP comes out Thursday - hoping for a bump up from the previous 4.9%. I'd like to see a preliminary Q4 read of around 3% - consensus is for a positive read of 0.5%. I'm just so full of superlative bull manure while I wait for the 9 month cycle to pass and the downward pressure eases. When we see the 9 month low at a lower level than that of the previous one, then you will know we are in a bear market. And remember technical analysis is simply human emotion plotted on a grid. Figgy pudding for everyone.

 

[McDuck]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

then you will know we are in a bear market.

Ok let's say that happens, what is your prediction of how that would play out? Could we go 100%G and stay there?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sure, a 100% G position would be ideal. But I'd maintain my DCA allocation contribution into the C fund and accumulate as many shares as possible while treading at the bottom of the well. That's the beauty of a consistent contribution - they can become the redeemer of many a mistake. By the way, picking a top is much more difficult than hitting the bottom. I don't look for major trouble until the next 4 year lows nesting in October 2010. Then it might not be too deep. With the recent new all-time high in the utilities we have 5 to 7 months before I would anticipate a firm market reversal to the downside beyond a trading range.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As of yesterday my oceanic account is now only off $143K from my yearly peak - gosh it could be worse - I could be back to the previous August lows so I'm grateful and enjoying my dividend reinvestments and trying not to take any further profits. The bull is a sleeping giant ready at some point to reawaken - I think. Snort. Enjoy your figgy pudding.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Corporate insider data indicates the insiders are more bullish now than they were a month ago. The Vickers ratio has dropped from 2.59 to 2.08. Lower numbers of this ratio are bullish. The ratio of insider selling to insider buying has dropped to levels that historically have indicated a buy signal.

We need to see breadth plurality to abruptly change direction to the positive.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

During the final phases of 9 month lows we will almost always see the A/D line below the 200 day EMA and we will see the attempt to pull both the 19 and 39 day EMA back below this same longer term trend line: done. The faster moving averages are all below trheir 1% trend which has shown a consistency of seeing 9 month bottoms over the last 5 years. Confirmation of the 9 month low will come with how the market rallies from this same spike point in the pattern. I need a strong last hour today.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

I need a strong last hour today.

Carry on Commander - stay the course.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Room to maneuver for the Bank of Canada. Declining inflation provides ample scope for the bank to keep cuting rates. Retail price inflation is trending lower and will likely dip into negative territory in the months ahead as cross-border shopping and import competition weigh on domestic goods prices."

Also see - "Stay constructive towards U.S. equities. The mountain of sidelined cash has grown markedly in recent months."

http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch, you're pretty much my anchor and I admire your nerves of steel (especially when everyone else is kind of falling apart). Right now my TSP is basically stagnant - and I would honestly rather lose some money then have it stagnate - I just hate to see it roaming in the same spot (with the little ups and downs). This particular climate is really getting on my nerves (and I don't mean that in the sense of gloom and doom) I mean I'm just tired of the BS. So I'm going to follow Griffin starting tomorrow. He's got a good handle on things and seems very solid - and usually backs his decisions in ways that shows he knows what he's doing. Anyway I largely came to the MB - to find the ones like you and him - who in my opinion are in a seperate league from the bulk of rapid timers (hoping to luck out). So this is a note of Thanks - for helping me to stay the course - but I can't deal with stagnation of money on any level. Tomorrow I will abdandon the S Fund and go along with Griffin. You have a lot of balls - and overall someone on your level is pretty hard to beat.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

If we have bottomed, what we don't want to see on the MCSUM is a lethargic advance with respect to the individual daily postings. Today will solve that situation and provide positive direction back to the zero lines. Stay the course - today could be a 300 pointer. We've got plenty of breadth plurality for our change in direction. Confirmation of the 9 month low will come with how the market rallies from this same spike point in the pattern.

Steadygain,

We do what we have to do. But we are prepared with our new base to blast up through the prevailing upper trend lines. Sometimes capital preservation can be more important than capital appreciation - but not for me. You'll have plenty of time next year to rock-n-roll.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

The anticipated cycle low from the 9 month might turn out to be one in which prices move up and out of this same bottom. Once this timing of the 9 month cycle influence is out of the way, we're going to see something robust happen to the upside. The Santa Rally doesn't start until 12/24 and runs through 1/4. Today is simply compression release. If we can violate the top beneath a top on the NYAD this will reaffirm the center point of Primary wave 3 being ahead of us - and believe me no one wants to miss this excitement. Figgy pudding for everyone.

 

[Wolverine]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

That Figgy pudding tastes pretty good Birch, can I have some more.

 

[Steadygain]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Steadygain,

We are prepared with our new base to blast up through the prevailing upper trend lines. Sometimes capital preservation can be more important than capital appreciation - but not for me. You'll have plenty of time next year to rock-n-roll.

Capital preservation is the least of my concerns and that's why I've been fully invested - with all the confidence in the world that holding in S Fund would pay off. Anyway it's finally taking off and I didn't mind the DCAing along the way. Thanks Birch - looks like the real winners are the ones willing to take the risk and stick with it.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

More multiple days of large point gains ahead. We are accelerating into Primary wave 3 up. Afterall, the bearish sentiment at the November bottom was higher than that of the 2002 lows in many respects. And for those who didn't trade through that time period it was scary but necessary. Fresh money is coming in off the sidelines - a new trend is in the beginning stages of developing. Snort. We are moving above resistance with enough velocity to break out of the trading range. The double-bottom 10% blink and you missed it correction is further in the rear view mirror as we accelerate with this still vibrant secular bull market.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

My oceanic account posted a $74K come back this week - if I can get one more good week I'll be back to my previous peak and can finally get on with my bullish life and make more manure. I see where the China Investment Corp., China's $200 billion sovereign wealth fund, said it will be a "stabilizing force" in markets rocked by credit losses, signaling it may invest in American banks. And some day we will have to return the favor I suppose. Overseas acquisitions by Chinese companies climbed to almost $28 billion this year, compared with $19 billion in 2006. I knew this was coming months ago - just planning ahead like any good investor. They can still dump another $20 billion if they wish - it's been approved by their government. I'm going to catch my last I fund nibble on Monday and then ride back to $26.00 and above before fully returning to the C fund.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Yet this overlooks a salient fact that has been an important part of the recovery of the U.S. stock market since 2002, namely, thew extraordinary attractive valuations of stock to bonds. I'm referring of course to the super bullish long-term readings in the IBES Valuation Model. They seem to suggest that stocks have a large remaining upside."

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/1224.html

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Since July 1, 2007, the Dow Jones Industrial Average experienced 48 days with at least a 100-point move in the index, compared with just 21 days in the first half of 2007. Only $49K more to go and I'm back to my oceanic peak. That's after being down considerably during the last 10% correction. Be right and sit tight.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Between the beginning of 2006 and October 2007, non-U.S. stock mutual funds showed a net inflow of nearly $273 billion. U.S. funds showed a net out flow of $9.77 billion in that time. The question that always comes up is: can 50 million Frenchman be wrong and the answer is you bet they can be wrong. I prefer to invest away from the herd.