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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
anthony
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 10
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I agree Birch-man. After this past year's experience, in which I made some newbie level blunders in the early going, I strongly believe there is a direct corollary between an investor's knowledge or time spent studying the markets, and that investor's ability to time volatility with active trading.
I think this is also evident when you look at things like the tracker and realize that while some members are working with the volatility very well (and I applaud them for it), you also realize that 'members' with funny little names like I-Fund, C-Fund, S-Fund, 20% Each, and L2020/2030/2040 are all inside or close to the Top 50, and none are in the negative.
I keep reading everything I can, and I appreciate all the insight and articles posted on the forum. I've learned a lot this year from this site and others like Fool.com and AAII. For the short term, I agree that January seems like a hold all they way. There's certainly going to be some dips in January, but for the newbie the potential of missing the big up days seems far more 'risky' than dodging some down days.
As for 2007's other major development, I am against the Thrift Board's trade limits more on principle than anything else. In reality though, I think you are right that two trades and a move to safety are more than enough to manage well, especially for the less educated or less experienced investor.
My theory after this year: The less you know, the less active you should be.
Semper Fi and Good Luck in 2008!
I agree Birch-man. After this past year's experience, in which I made some newbie level blunders in the early going, I strongly believe there is a direct corollary between an investor's knowledge or time spent studying the markets, and that investor's ability to time volatility with active trading.
I think this is also evident when you look at things like the tracker and realize that while some members are working with the volatility very well (and I applaud them for it), you also realize that 'members' with funny little names like I-Fund, C-Fund, S-Fund, 20% Each, and L2020/2030/2040 are all inside or close to the Top 50, and none are in the negative.
I keep reading everything I can, and I appreciate all the insight and articles posted on the forum. I've learned a lot this year from this site and others like Fool.com and AAII. For the short term, I agree that January seems like a hold all they way. There's certainly going to be some dips in January, but for the newbie the potential of missing the big up days seems far more 'risky' than dodging some down days.
As for 2007's other major development, I am against the Thrift Board's trade limits more on principle than anything else. In reality though, I think you are right that two trades and a move to safety are more than enough to manage well, especially for the less educated or less experienced investor.
My theory after this year: The less you know, the less active you should be.
Semper Fi and Good Luck in 2008!
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
My 1LT daughter just received a beneficiary IRA from her grandmother and we just set up a self-directed program to invest the funds in stocks. We also opened her a Roth IRA as a self-directed program and also a stock brokerage account that is self directed. She has been keeping way to much money in her savings account and needed another outlet besides her TSP account. She will eventually be redeployed again at the end of 2008 and will now have some flexibility to place her funds. I'm going to set her up with about 50 individual stocks and set it on auto-pilot for dividend reinvestment. I'm getting her financially conditioned to proceed eventually to graduate school and be able to let her money grow with the ability to withdraw as needed. I plan to complete the investing program within the next several weeks while we are trying to retest our lows again. What a great time with good pricing to put money to work. We got no fear with a longer term horizon.
My 1LT daughter just received a beneficiary IRA from her grandmother and we just set up a self-directed program to invest the funds in stocks. We also opened her a Roth IRA as a self-directed program and also a stock brokerage account that is self directed. She has been keeping way to much money in her savings account and needed another outlet besides her TSP account. She will eventually be redeployed again at the end of 2008 and will now have some flexibility to place her funds. I'm going to set her up with about 50 individual stocks and set it on auto-pilot for dividend reinvestment. I'm getting her financially conditioned to proceed eventually to graduate school and be able to let her money grow with the ability to withdraw as needed. I plan to complete the investing program within the next several weeks while we are trying to retest our lows again. What a great time with good pricing to put money to work. We got no fear with a longer term horizon.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Companies in the S&P 500 stock index paid a total of $246.6 billion in dividends in 2007, up 11.5% from 2006. The per share average totaled a record $27.73, and Standard & Poor's expects that amount to increase 9.3% in 2008. S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., said the average dividend is expected to reach $30.30 a share.
Taxes on most types of corporate dividends were lowered to 15% in 2003 and are scheduled to stay at that rate through 2008. The move helped make dividend payments more attractive to companies as they began accumulating cash piles amid a rebounding economy and earnings growth.
Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P, said 11 companies in the S&P 500 initiated a dividend payment in 2007, bringing the total to 389, a level not seen in seven years.
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
Companies in the S&P 500 stock index paid a total of $246.6 billion in dividends in 2007, up 11.5% from 2006. The per share average totaled a record $27.73, and Standard & Poor's expects that amount to increase 9.3% in 2008. S&P, a unit of McGraw-Hill Cos., said the average dividend is expected to reach $30.30 a share.
Taxes on most types of corporate dividends were lowered to 15% in 2003 and are scheduled to stay at that rate through 2008. The move helped make dividend payments more attractive to companies as they began accumulating cash piles amid a rebounding economy and earnings growth.
Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P, said 11 companies in the S&P 500 initiated a dividend payment in 2007, bringing the total to 389, a level not seen in seven years.
http://www.online.wsj.com/public/us
hessian
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 23
Re: Birchtree's account talk
'Morning Birch,
First, I want to say: I have utmost respect for your knowledge & experience. In the post you made, Re: Uptrend's Account Talk... "Technical analysis is nothing more than human emotions plotted on a grid."
I think I understand it - its abstract, but true. Its also kinda Zen-like, in that their teachings are meant to make the student think, ponder, and question -if all is fully comprehended.
Anyway, I recall a previous post of yours, saying you were glad to see folks discussing EWT. I want to ask you for any EWT wisdom you can pass along related to recent market events (like last couple months, and those ahead??
I realize short/intermediate perspectives may not be your specialty, but appreciate any thoughts.
VR
'Morning Birch,
First, I want to say: I have utmost respect for your knowledge & experience. In the post you made, Re: Uptrend's Account Talk... "Technical analysis is nothing more than human emotions plotted on a grid."
I think I understand it - its abstract, but true. Its also kinda Zen-like, in that their teachings are meant to make the student think, ponder, and question -if all is fully comprehended.
Anyway, I recall a previous post of yours, saying you were glad to see folks discussing EWT. I want to ask you for any EWT wisdom you can pass along related to recent market events (like last couple months, and those ahead??
I realize short/intermediate perspectives may not be your specialty, but appreciate any thoughts.
VR
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I've been buying a few stocks today for the "Buzz" account - my daughter. This is what we have acquired so far: C, FBP, WFC, OLN, LPX, BLG, WB, RT, CAG, these are mostly stocks that are under pressure and no one really wants - all wall flowers that will bloom in the distant future. The idea is to reinvest the dividends while they are in a position to buy more shares. I would like to eventually acquire about 50 positions that will generate 200 dividend hits/year - making the money work. What's that saying - money never sleeps.
I've been buying a few stocks today for the "Buzz" account - my daughter. This is what we have acquired so far: C, FBP, WFC, OLN, LPX, BLG, WB, RT, CAG, these are mostly stocks that are under pressure and no one really wants - all wall flowers that will bloom in the distant future. The idea is to reinvest the dividends while they are in a position to buy more shares. I would like to eventually acquire about 50 positions that will generate 200 dividend hits/year - making the money work. What's that saying - money never sleeps.
Oldcoin
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 12
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Yes the "Buzz" and I are shopping for the unloved wall flowers - went in on the lows this afternoon and bought: FBN, LZB, LRY, LEG, KWD, KEY, - we'll continue with our program next week. I'm contrarian with my picks because I really don't anticipate making any capital gains for at least three years - so we'll have ample opportunity to reinvest dividends. It's all in the sacrifice.
Yes the "Buzz" and I are shopping for the unloved wall flowers - went in on the lows this afternoon and bought: FBN, LZB, LRY, LEG, KWD, KEY, - we'll continue with our program next week. I'm contrarian with my picks because I really don't anticipate making any capital gains for at least three years - so we'll have ample opportunity to reinvest dividends. It's all in the sacrifice.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"A big market decision is approaching: Expect increasing market volatility in the coming days....and then a powerful move afterwards."
http://www.stocktiming.com/friday-dailymarketupdate.htm
"A big market decision is approaching: Expect increasing market volatility in the coming days....and then a powerful move afterwards."
http://www.stocktiming.com/friday-dailymarketupdate.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady, as expected. The threat of a BoJ rate hike in thr first half of 2008 has vanished."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
"The Bank of Japan kept its policy rate steady, as expected. The threat of a BoJ rate hike in thr first half of 2008 has vanished."
http://www.bankcreditanalyst.com
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
My DCA prices into the I fund look like this: $24.68, $24.20, $25.18, $25.52, $23.93, $24.08, and $24.54. I think I'll ride until $27.00 or as close to that price as I can get. There is some serious bull tinky talk out there at how bad 2008 is going to be - me, I don't believe any of it. The buyers are on their way. Let the wall of worry begin. My Mindy Lou system indicates hold through January and February.
My DCA prices into the I fund look like this: $24.68, $24.20, $25.18, $25.52, $23.93, $24.08, and $24.54. I think I'll ride until $27.00 or as close to that price as I can get. There is some serious bull tinky talk out there at how bad 2008 is going to be - me, I don't believe any of it. The buyers are on their way. Let the wall of worry begin. My Mindy Lou system indicates hold through January and February.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The year 2007 was slow go on any capital appreciation for my tugboat account, but the blessing was that I didn't have to over pay on my DCA accumulations. That means more shares for the available money - 4 purchases in the $15 range, 16 purchases in the $16 range, 5 purchases in the $17 range. I only have several more months to collect further DCAs and if those accumulations are in the $16 range that's welcomed. The goal for 2008 is to go for capital appreciation on a more aggressive basis - still not interested in capital preservation only the build up of manure.
The year 2007 was slow go on any capital appreciation for my tugboat account, but the blessing was that I didn't have to over pay on my DCA accumulations. That means more shares for the available money - 4 purchases in the $15 range, 16 purchases in the $16 range, 5 purchases in the $17 range. I only have several more months to collect further DCAs and if those accumulations are in the $16 range that's welcomed. The goal for 2008 is to go for capital appreciation on a more aggressive basis - still not interested in capital preservation only the build up of manure.
Robo5555
Analyst
- Reaction score
- 8
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I peeled off some MOS (Mosaic) today at $94.09 to raise some cash and perhaps do some fishing on the bottom. I can't believe that MOS was up 348% ytd in 2007. I'm getting up a list of financial and subprime related catastrophes for myself and my daughter to purchase. The collapse of the subprime market has triggered an enormous plunge in valuation of financial stocks. Yet if a recovery lies ahead, buying when things look bleakest could be very profitable. I bought my first MOS at $6.70. Getting in at the bottom can eventually produce huge gains over the next several years. I've noticed that financial stocks aren't automatically falling on bad news anymore, today was an ugly exception. We may not see values like this for a long time to come. The housing correction is definitely not complete and I'll be buying housing material stocks soon. I've got 76 stocks picked out for adding to our portfolios but I won't list them until purchased - why be boring, right? The IBES Valuation Model just get some added value today. The sweet smell of superlative bull manure is everywhere.
I peeled off some MOS (Mosaic) today at $94.09 to raise some cash and perhaps do some fishing on the bottom. I can't believe that MOS was up 348% ytd in 2007. I'm getting up a list of financial and subprime related catastrophes for myself and my daughter to purchase. The collapse of the subprime market has triggered an enormous plunge in valuation of financial stocks. Yet if a recovery lies ahead, buying when things look bleakest could be very profitable. I bought my first MOS at $6.70. Getting in at the bottom can eventually produce huge gains over the next several years. I've noticed that financial stocks aren't automatically falling on bad news anymore, today was an ugly exception. We may not see values like this for a long time to come. The housing correction is definitely not complete and I'll be buying housing material stocks soon. I've got 76 stocks picked out for adding to our portfolios but I won't list them until purchased - why be boring, right? The IBES Valuation Model just get some added value today. The sweet smell of superlative bull manure is everywhere.
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch...maybe you should have waited one more day to sell Mosaic.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Wait one more day seems to be my life story - right back to the bottom of the well again. I just checked to see which stocks were paying dividends this past week - there is always a blessing somewhere. Anything cyclical or economically sensitive is getting its head taken off - that's just the kind of market I like to do my buying in. Trying to remain positive when all these hedge funds are running scared because we might have a light recession that will only last six months at most. Slackening of the labor market could reduce the inflation threat by cutting wage pressures. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.4% while the total number of hours was flat. Those fools in the euro zone want an 8% pay raise. Already the annual rate of euro-zone consumer price inflation held at a record 3.1% for a second straight month in December. The threat of a spillover into higher wage demands is a top concern for the ECB. The ECB's aim to hold the inflation rate just below a 2% ceiling is looking fainter still for 2008. I still think I'll keep most of my money in the domestic economy. Futures markets expect cuts down to 3% by year end. I can't help but think back to what happened in 1994-95, zoom. Last weeks' losses erased more than half of the blue-chip index's 6.4% gain last year, and were the worst first three days of a new year since 1932 - isn't that great? Bring all the bad new early.
Wait one more day seems to be my life story - right back to the bottom of the well again. I just checked to see which stocks were paying dividends this past week - there is always a blessing somewhere. Anything cyclical or economically sensitive is getting its head taken off - that's just the kind of market I like to do my buying in. Trying to remain positive when all these hedge funds are running scared because we might have a light recession that will only last six months at most. Slackening of the labor market could reduce the inflation threat by cutting wage pressures. Average hourly earnings rose only 0.4% while the total number of hours was flat. Those fools in the euro zone want an 8% pay raise. Already the annual rate of euro-zone consumer price inflation held at a record 3.1% for a second straight month in December. The threat of a spillover into higher wage demands is a top concern for the ECB. The ECB's aim to hold the inflation rate just below a 2% ceiling is looking fainter still for 2008. I still think I'll keep most of my money in the domestic economy. Futures markets expect cuts down to 3% by year end. I can't help but think back to what happened in 1994-95, zoom. Last weeks' losses erased more than half of the blue-chip index's 6.4% gain last year, and were the worst first three days of a new year since 1932 - isn't that great? Bring all the bad new early.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Just finished buying these positions for 1LT "Buzz": KRO, MOD, PNY, SXI, WFC, MAS, RF, SIG, SOV, STL, BEE, VAL, WNC, MPX, IMP, HVT, FPO, ETH, CBC, CPF, BGG, ABK, ABM, ONB, OLP, PFB, PKY, RPT, SBP, STL, SUI, SNV, TCB, WM. These are all unloved and unappreciated wall flowers that will possibly blossom over time once again. I still have 38 positions left to purchase. Oops, I forgot one: BBT. This is a long term plan invested over her life cycle and she is currently only 27. She currently has 87 selections for a dividend hit number of 348/year. Her plan is to fund her Roth IRA for this year and eventually make deposits to her self-directed brokerage account when she gets her next promotion to Captain in March. She will be deployed again to Iraq in December and now has an established conduit for her money to be invested. As James Brown would have said "I feel good." If the market wants to correct further we'll be right and sit tight - collecting the income to buy even more undervalued stocks.
Just finished buying these positions for 1LT "Buzz": KRO, MOD, PNY, SXI, WFC, MAS, RF, SIG, SOV, STL, BEE, VAL, WNC, MPX, IMP, HVT, FPO, ETH, CBC, CPF, BGG, ABK, ABM, ONB, OLP, PFB, PKY, RPT, SBP, STL, SUI, SNV, TCB, WM. These are all unloved and unappreciated wall flowers that will possibly blossom over time once again. I still have 38 positions left to purchase. Oops, I forgot one: BBT. This is a long term plan invested over her life cycle and she is currently only 27. She currently has 87 selections for a dividend hit number of 348/year. Her plan is to fund her Roth IRA for this year and eventually make deposits to her self-directed brokerage account when she gets her next promotion to Captain in March. She will be deployed again to Iraq in December and now has an established conduit for her money to be invested. As James Brown would have said "I feel good." If the market wants to correct further we'll be right and sit tight - collecting the income to buy even more undervalued stocks.
Steadygain
TSP Elite
- Reaction score
- 45
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Remind me in 11/08 to put her on our prayer list. Anyone who can associate capital appreciation and solid gains with music deserves the best rewards possible. Sounds like she'll be your girl as long as you have breath. That's wonderful man - really cool
Remind me in 11/08 to put her on our prayer list. Anyone who can associate capital appreciation and solid gains with music deserves the best rewards possible. Sounds like she'll be your girl as long as you have breath. That's wonderful man - really cool
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
If any of you new folks would like to see the internals of my oceanic account you can find it at post #30 on the short term outlook between now and christmas thread. Please ignore the dialogue - that's old history.
The Intel downgrade cited weakness in European orders, raising new concerns that U.S. companies might not be able to count much longer on exports to bail out sluggish sales at home. This is not a view I subscribe to, however.
If any of you new folks would like to see the internals of my oceanic account you can find it at post #30 on the short term outlook between now and christmas thread. Please ignore the dialogue - that's old history.
The Intel downgrade cited weakness in European orders, raising new concerns that U.S. companies might not be able to count much longer on exports to bail out sluggish sales at home. This is not a view I subscribe to, however.
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