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Birchtree's Account Talk
- Thread starter Birchtree
- Start date
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The NYSE breadth MCO broke out of its declining tops line last week, snapped back, and is now attempting to move to higher highs. The MCO and MCSUM's biggest advantages is that they measure the trend of the A/D line data being measured. We needed to see the RA (ratio adjusted) NYSE breadth MCO move above the +50 level to have any indication that something more than a test of the October highs are in the cards for this specifiuc price pattern sequence - we met that objective today. The SPX breadth MCSUM went right through its -250 level without hesitation today - that's an initiation thrust with more to follow. I think we are coming up and out of the 9 month cycle low - it bottomed 11/21. We are moving above resistance with enough velocity to breakout of the trading range. The hedge funds as a sector are light their stock holdings. Time for the angle of ascent to go 60 degrees - the more acute the angle, the more powerful the trend of money flow is. The double-bottom 10% blink and you missed it correction is in the rear view mirror.
The NYSE breadth MCO broke out of its declining tops line last week, snapped back, and is now attempting to move to higher highs. The MCO and MCSUM's biggest advantages is that they measure the trend of the A/D line data being measured. We needed to see the RA (ratio adjusted) NYSE breadth MCO move above the +50 level to have any indication that something more than a test of the October highs are in the cards for this specifiuc price pattern sequence - we met that objective today. The SPX breadth MCSUM went right through its -250 level without hesitation today - that's an initiation thrust with more to follow. I think we are coming up and out of the 9 month cycle low - it bottomed 11/21. We are moving above resistance with enough velocity to breakout of the trading range. The hedge funds as a sector are light their stock holdings. Time for the angle of ascent to go 60 degrees - the more acute the angle, the more powerful the trend of money flow is. The double-bottom 10% blink and you missed it correction is in the rear view mirror.
fabijo
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Here you go, Birch!
http://www.bid4assets.com/channel/i...ategory&channel=22&category=05&subcategory=03
Here you go, Birch!
http://www.bid4assets.com/channel/i...ategory&channel=22&category=05&subcategory=03
Re: Birchtree's account
As long as I've been watching you Birch, this is about the most I've seen you wander from the C fund. Is some sort of catastrophic event about to happen? LOL. A reply isn't necessary, I don't understand the majority of what you say anyway. I like reading it though. Unfortunately, you talk about finances on a level that my limited mind can barely comprehend.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
walli 1,
I'm looking at retirement in the spring so I'm just greasing the pistols a little. I plan to allow my money to continue working diligently with a couple large balance moves during the year - staying within the boundaries that are provided. This bull has a lot further to roam and I'll try and get my share with the consequent risks. The way I see things is that the greater the risk the greater the potential return. I may make most of my money this year in the next 15 trading days. As the Chambers Brothers would say "Time Has Come Today."
walli 1,
I'm looking at retirement in the spring so I'm just greasing the pistols a little. I plan to allow my money to continue working diligently with a couple large balance moves during the year - staying within the boundaries that are provided. This bull has a lot further to roam and I'll try and get my share with the consequent risks. The way I see things is that the greater the risk the greater the potential return. I may make most of my money this year in the next 15 trading days. As the Chambers Brothers would say "Time Has Come Today."
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
The Dow Transports are up nicely +103.87 to 4893.40, the previous peak was 5446.49. Perhaps the truckers will pull the industrials along for the ride today. It won't be long they'll be talking about the triple top in the S&P according to the charts.
The Dow Transports are up nicely +103.87 to 4893.40, the previous peak was 5446.49. Perhaps the truckers will pull the industrials along for the ride today. It won't be long they'll be talking about the triple top in the S&P according to the charts.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I'll be revisiting my 1968 Tet Offensive experiences Sunday night at 9-11 pm with Tom Brokaw. I missed the whole hippie generation movement but I did have the music - I was busy with more important dealings. But the music has set my generation and is now a routine part of the culture. I am so proud of my daughter - the newest patriot in my family.
http://www.1stcavmedic.com
I'll be revisiting my 1968 Tet Offensive experiences Sunday night at 9-11 pm with Tom Brokaw. I missed the whole hippie generation movement but I did have the music - I was busy with more important dealings. But the music has set my generation and is now a routine part of the culture. I am so proud of my daughter - the newest patriot in my family.
http://www.1stcavmedic.com
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
"The bottom line is that all of these factors, combined with China's growth and demand, surging money and world liquidity, out of control spendings and inflation pressures, means that this bull market in gold and other commodities is not only going to be a big one, but a long lasting one as well. All of the evidence suggests that it's going to be a once in a generation type of move and a very profitable one."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8969.htm
"The bottom line is that all of these factors, combined with China's growth and demand, surging money and world liquidity, out of control spendings and inflation pressures, means that this bull market in gold and other commodities is not only going to be a big one, but a long lasting one as well. All of the evidence suggests that it's going to be a once in a generation type of move and a very profitable one."
http://www.safehaven.com/article-8969.htm
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Another new all-time high in the utilities - 550.25 +1.17
Certainly would like to see another 100 point run this afternoon - just because they said it couldn't happen. I'm prepared to experience a massive move next week. Snort.
Another new all-time high in the utilities - 550.25 +1.17
Certainly would like to see another 100 point run this afternoon - just because they said it couldn't happen. I'm prepared to experience a massive move next week. Snort.
Stoplight
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 17
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Birch,
NOW I know a bit about the source of your eternal "bullishness" (if that's a word)....you've already seen hell.....thanks for the interesting link !
Thanks for your service....so often the rest of us forget (or never knew)...
...and a special thanks to your daughter who continues to make us able to deal with the trivial stuff we talk about here...may God bless her and keep her safe.
Stoplight...
Birch,
NOW I know a bit about the source of your eternal "bullishness" (if that's a word)....you've already seen hell.....thanks for the interesting link !
Thanks for your service....so often the rest of us forget (or never knew)...
...and a special thanks to your daughter who continues to make us able to deal with the trivial stuff we talk about here...may God bless her and keep her safe.
Stoplight...
Bullitt
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 72
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Well then you might like Oliver Stone's current project entitled, "Pinkville" which is about the My Lai Massacre. No idea when it's coming out though. In the meantime, "Valkyrie", a film about Colonel Claus Von Stauffenberg's unsuccessful attempt on the fuhrer's life, is due out in June.
Well then you might like Oliver Stone's current project entitled, "Pinkville" which is about the My Lai Massacre. No idea when it's coming out though. In the meantime, "Valkyrie", a film about Colonel Claus Von Stauffenberg's unsuccessful attempt on the fuhrer's life, is due out in June.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
As of yesterday I'm only now $62K off my peak - coming back quickly. I've got a 2 for 1 splitter at the end of the month - TWIN. MOS may declare a split soon. Will we see Dow 17,000 in 2008 - I think we will and that's when I turn into toast.
As of yesterday I'm only now $62K off my peak - coming back quickly. I've got a 2 for 1 splitter at the end of the month - TWIN. MOS may declare a split soon. Will we see Dow 17,000 in 2008 - I think we will and that's when I turn into toast.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
Only $59K off my peak now. On average, the market has rallied more than 30% within 12 months of the second Fed rate cut. Let's see where the potential for 2008 might go: 13,700 x .30 = 4,110. That's a Dow of 17,810. I would definitely be burnt toast. But I would also have a very healthy balance and the available time to tend the gains. I'm so excited.
Dennis - permabull #1
Only $59K off my peak now. On average, the market has rallied more than 30% within 12 months of the second Fed rate cut. Let's see where the potential for 2008 might go: 13,700 x .30 = 4,110. That's a Dow of 17,810. I would definitely be burnt toast. But I would also have a very healthy balance and the available time to tend the gains. I'm so excited.
Dennis - permabull #1
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
New all time highs on the NYA are now probable. Just by casual observation of market action over the years one would be hard pressed to find anytime in history when the masses believed that things are at their worse when prices are within striking distance of making new highs of any degree. Price tops are usually seen with the masses throwing money at the markets. In the end investing is all about avoiding the well trodden path the masses take for the hidden path that's almost invicible. An aggressive challenge of the all time price highs should be seen over the next several weeks. With the pent up demand just itching to pull the trigger, this can get away from us rather quickly. The bearish sentiment at the November bottom was higher than that of the 2002 lows in many respects. I'd dearly like to have a 2,000 point runnaway market.
New all time highs on the NYA are now probable. Just by casual observation of market action over the years one would be hard pressed to find anytime in history when the masses believed that things are at their worse when prices are within striking distance of making new highs of any degree. Price tops are usually seen with the masses throwing money at the markets. In the end investing is all about avoiding the well trodden path the masses take for the hidden path that's almost invicible. An aggressive challenge of the all time price highs should be seen over the next several weeks. With the pent up demand just itching to pull the trigger, this can get away from us rather quickly. The bearish sentiment at the November bottom was higher than that of the 2002 lows in many respects. I'd dearly like to have a 2,000 point runnaway market.
fabijo
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 26
Re: Birchtree's account talk
That'd be nice. I wish the market stayed stagnant for 20 years, so I could purchase all the shares at a good price. Then, when I retire, the market explodes 100% annually.
That'd be nice. I wish the market stayed stagnant for 20 years, so I could purchase all the shares at a good price. Then, when I retire, the market explodes 100% annually.
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I know I'm sounding tendentiously bullish but I am a perma-bull. The range of recent months could prove to be a base prior to a significant breakout. There is a secular shift (IMO) underway toward large-cap stocks from smaller caps. Mega cap multinationals are early leadership stocks that may not yet be evident. The VIX is slowly breaking to the downside, supporting a continued rally in stocks. The double-bottom 10% blink and you missed it correction is part of a still vibrant secular bull market. We are moving above resistance with enough velocity and energy to break out of the trading range - be prepared to hold long. There will undoubtedly be more multiple days of large point gains ahead. The rest of the world is on their way. We are simply accelerating into Primary 3 up. Snort. I would like to see the power of a parabolic rise the rest of this week.
I know I'm sounding tendentiously bullish but I am a perma-bull. The range of recent months could prove to be a base prior to a significant breakout. There is a secular shift (IMO) underway toward large-cap stocks from smaller caps. Mega cap multinationals are early leadership stocks that may not yet be evident. The VIX is slowly breaking to the downside, supporting a continued rally in stocks. The double-bottom 10% blink and you missed it correction is part of a still vibrant secular bull market. We are moving above resistance with enough velocity and energy to break out of the trading range - be prepared to hold long. There will undoubtedly be more multiple days of large point gains ahead. The rest of the world is on their way. We are simply accelerating into Primary 3 up. Snort. I would like to see the power of a parabolic rise the rest of this week.
FogSailing
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 61
Re: Birchtree's account talk
I think the market heads up for a while Birch..who knows where is goes after 1530...but 1590 seems within easy reach. I'm jumping in tomorrow and plan on staying long..which will be a strategic change for me because I've gotten so used to being a trader this year..
GL on making that 100K..
FS
I think the market heads up for a while Birch..who knows where is goes after 1530...but 1590 seems within easy reach. I'm jumping in tomorrow and plan on staying long..which will be a strategic change for me because I've gotten so used to being a trader this year..
GL on making that 100K..
FS
Birchtree
TSP Talk Royalty
- Reaction score
- 143
Re: Birchtree's account talk
This sounds so simple but that's how the masses are. Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist who has made a career out of studying bubbles, says the last bear market in stocks may have also made houses more appealing. A 2003 survey of home buyers he conducted with a colleague found 10 times as many said the stock market's collapse encouraged them to buy a home as said it discouraged them. Their thinking, Mr. Shiller says, went like this: " I'm fed up with the stock market, I had so many promises of high returns and my broker and the accountants were deceiving us. But homes have always gone up in value, and it gives me great satisfaction to own a home and I can see it everyday." When these folks return to the stock market in mass it'll be time for me to get out. Snort.
This sounds so simple but that's how the masses are. Robert Shiller, a Yale University economist who has made a career out of studying bubbles, says the last bear market in stocks may have also made houses more appealing. A 2003 survey of home buyers he conducted with a colleague found 10 times as many said the stock market's collapse encouraged them to buy a home as said it discouraged them. Their thinking, Mr. Shiller says, went like this: " I'm fed up with the stock market, I had so many promises of high returns and my broker and the accountants were deceiving us. But homes have always gone up in value, and it gives me great satisfaction to own a home and I can see it everyday." When these folks return to the stock market in mass it'll be time for me to get out. Snort.
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