Birchtree's Account Talk

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,
Thanks for the reply!
The bubble of 2000 ripped a lot of us! However, you seem to have come through in a lot better then most!
If we listened to the so called gurus of dot. com and techs-r-us,.... we got the shaft!
U know me, I don't care how much $ one has! But, what I am curious about is your allocation?
In general terms could you describe your allocation: i.e., bonds, total market, sectors, international, etc.
Since you have had success in your investments, how did you protect yourself........
Your allocation strategy in percentage (%) could be a real eye opener!
Thanks
Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Spaf,

I approach my investing style as a family matter. My wife has the biggest position in the international mutual fund area owning AEPGX as well a large cap domestic position in PYODX. I'm primarily invested in the large cap C fund in TSP with a small percentage of I fund DCA. The Mrs will be getting her DCA today - a small blessing.

The allocation of my oceanic account is 100% stocks. And I own stocks in many sectors being over weight at this time in energy, industrials, materials, etc. Ive owned most of this stuff way back to 1987. I don't use stops because I don't like getting stopped out of my favorites - I just absorb the pain that is delivered. Not all stocks operate in tandem and that provides some flexibility. I have used buy stops in the past usually going several points below current pricing and if the price drops I'm lucky. Now that I own the hard earned holy grail I can afford to let things slosh around some and not panic into cutting and running. I'm firmly in the bullish camp and see no reason to become more defensive - I prefer offense at this point. If I'm correct in my positioning I'll potentially be looking at several $M. I have to be in to win and it does help to have an inhouse banker. Everytime I sell stock it's because it's a sacrifice to acquire cash to do more buying on the way to the bottom. I like following you down the rabbit hole.

 

[ATCJeff]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Spaf,

I like following you down the rabbit hole.

Do I take the green one or the red one?

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Take the green one of course. Today if we don't rebound I'll catch a south paw to the tune of probably $40K - but the jaw is solid. The dividends coming in today won't touch that, but I'm still grateful and there is always Monday. I can't wait until I start picking up some more splits - they are the best. Waiting on the arrival of the wave 3 epicenter for redemption. That's the great thing about the investment arena - it's open to all personal vibes. I simply enjoy walking the talk.

 

[FUTURESTRADER]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Yeah, I'd like to hear your opinion, Birch. You're often talking of the stocks you buy and the mega bull market, but are you also spreading your bets into bonds and gold? Or are you doing crazy options spreads with calls and puts spread across different expirations? Or do you buy any of those mutual funds that do all that thinking for you? What's the scoop?

Dooood...options spreads are da bomb

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"You're creating a dramatic new incentive to save, which as savings would be tax free....your interest, dividends and capital gains will be tax free, which will allow people to establish pretty substantial nest eggs."

http://www.money.cnn.com Jobs - Romney would nix investment taxes for most.

Only the loney know the way I feel tonight. The Donkey feeders will raise all kinds of hell - they want help to get out from under their resetting arms, they're is no thought to saving for retirement. That's why they will rely on the TSP L funds.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The bigger picture for the NYSE is very bullish. Big rallies occur in the NYSE when the NYSE McClellan Oscillator (MCO) reaches the negative 300 range and then rallies to +250 or higher range. This set up on the Oscillator occerred only twice before in the last ten years."

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAC/ORD.html

I mentioned in another thread that the NYSE breadth MCO has had a double initiation thrust over the past week and a second higher high on Monday, both taking out highs for the past year. We are coiled to rally strongly from the lows placed today.

A tid bit: Eurozone inflation in July was 1.8%, within the ECB's preferred range of just under 2%. Odds are rising that the bank will stay at 4% indefinitely - even if our Fed starts to aggressively cut.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

From TWSJ by Peter McKay on 9/8/07
"On only five occasions since 1985 has payroll employment shown a monthly decline outside of a recession period, said Zoltan Pozar, an economist at Moody's Economy.com Inc. Each of those was followed by a monthly gain averaging 360,000 jobs. That suggests businesses seem to hire with a vengeance after these midcycle slowdowns. A loud and clear and simple signal from the Fed could help bring such a hiring surge about."

From TWSJ by John Makin on 9/8/07
"Most likely, as is typically the case - witness the 1990-91 recession when the Fed didn't start cutting rates below neutral until December 1990 when the recession was already underway - the Fed will wait for weak growth numbers and end up cutting ratres from the 4.75% Fed funds level already expected for Oct. 31, 2007, to well below 3% during 2008 and possibly lower if the housing overhang-credit problems persist.

While it's true that many more recessions have been predicted than have occurred, the drag from continued falling residential investment and from credit-constrained consumers will, very probably, produce negative growth by the end of 2007 or early in 2008. The Fed will cushion the slowdown once weaker growth numbers appear, but there isn't much it can or should do to prevent the permanent unwinding of securities tied to undocumented-income, negative-amortization, and 100% loan to value securitized mortgages rated triple-A by irresponsible rating agencies and sold to unsuspecting investors."

This old bull plans to simply be right and sit tight. I thought I perhaps got devalued to the tune of $40K on Friday but was down only $35K - sure makes me feel better. No reason to panic from my perspective after all I'm still up $76K from the previous bottom. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

In the last 50 trading days we've had six 90% down volume over up volume days and only three 90% up volume over down volume days. Can this be bullish - if you are a contrarian it's terribly bullish with gains possible of 47% over the next 18 months. Be right and sit tight. I think I'll take another 2% bite out of the I fund on 9/10 COB.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

"In 2001, Malkiel found that it took 50 stocks to get the risk reduction that 20 used to provide. Others estimate that the true diversification requires hundreds of stocks." I'm normal with 226 - I feel better now.

http://www.money.cnn.com Jason Zweig 9/7 Personal Finance - How many stocks should you own?

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Be right and sit tight.

For awhile I've been doing at least the latter. I believe you said that you did this 2000-2002 and DCA'd all the way to the bottom and back up. In hindsight, would you have chosen to jump out somewhere on the trip down and jumped back in somewhere in the trip back up? Asking just in case some that believe a bear is coming this winter are right.....

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Investing in hindsight is always easy as long as one doesn't second guess his or her initial responses. Looking back I wouldn't have changed anything in that particular time frame. DCAing left me in great shape going forward - that works as long as you don't have to access your money. The next trip to the bottom of the well will be handled a little differently providing we are approaching a bear market. These recent corrections are just a necessary annoyance to eventual higher pricing. That's why it's important to be right and that requires work and some luck. I have my pick and rope to climb this wall of worry and won't be overly concerned about a bear market until the cycles start lining up with the most pressure in 2010. Until then I'm a buyer with every opportunity this market volatility provides. Long live Ferdinand!

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There are two truths all members should realize: The IRS and the Fed are not your friends. They will both hurt you the first chance they get because they are generally merciless. Now I feel better.

With the 4.5 year cycle having ostensibly bottomed on 8/16, it's probably only a matter of time before the longer-term trends are resumed. Funky Nikkei - Japan's economy contracted 1.2% in the April-June period from a year earlier, revised downward from a preliminary estimate of a 0.5% expansion. Ah, so what. The S&P 500 cumulative A/D line peaked at 7,186 in 1998 and peaked at 6506 in July 2007 and is now at 4963. Hardly any reason to get overly excited about. Also the RAAD line has held its' 1959 support line and the clusters of extreme up and down volume days over the past couple of months bodes well for the bulls in the longer term.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

With 90 minutes left in the trading day I'm wondering if I'll finally get a +343 point banger. It's time to squeeze my short friends again.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

On a personal note, I was over on Bullwinkle's board today and I believe I ran across an old friend of TSPtalk from years back. He was actually a nemesis of mine and greatly underappreciated. Some may remember him as The Wizard, DMA, MT, Tiny Dick, etc. He's doing his usual best to agitate and aggravate - and that's fine, only he never had or has anything positive to say, a regular perma-bear. Some people never change. He was always so impatient that I'm sure he married a woman that was fond of saying "oh please hurry". I sure do miss him - he was never banned and I know exactly who would be on his short list. Come back Shane.

 

[GGal]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

There are two truths all members should realize: The IRS and the Fed are not your friends. They will both hurt you the first chance they get because they are generally merciless. Now I feel better.

Hi. I'm from the IRS, and I'm here to help you.

Tee Hee

GGAL

 

[Spaf]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT, GGal,

When I worked for OSHA there were 3 introduction lies:
1st -- Managaement would say "Glad to see You!"
2nd -- The Inspector would say "We are here to help!"
3rd -- The Union Steward would say "I didn't call them!"

--:cheesy::embarrest:

There are two truths all members should realize: The IRS and the Fed are not your friends. They will both hurt you the first chance they get because they are generally merciless. Now I feel better.

 

[Warrenlm]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

What's Bullwinkle's board? I know of the yahoo group led by the lady you refer to as goddess. Another yahoo group was recently started by a gentleman who was on the other group for awhile. Is that it?

 

[James48843]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birch-

I got the "C" itch today on the back of my neck.

Your 300+ point day on the "C" is near. Very very near. I am thinking within the next two trading days. Three at most. It's almost here, I just feel it.

Hang on and let's see.

 

[Birchtree]

Re: Birchtree's account talk

Now good buddy I know your are just being facetiou, but I'll remain patient because I have to lean on my creativity. It is on the way but when most will not be expecting it to happen. Be in to win.