Birchtree's Account Talk

Re: Birchtree's account talk

As we approach the epicenter of wave 3 all hell is going to break out - you think you've seen volatility just wait. 400 point up days could be common - now the action is to the downside but that won't last - global growth is the watch word for profits. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Patience is virtuous and I'm still waiting for a +343 point Dow day - how much longer will I be left to linger. Boy, Diane Swonk is not only smart she is also a babe. 15,600 remains my objective for end of year even if we don't see any interest rate cuts. Be right and sit tight.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The insiders dramatically cut back the pace of selling that had prevailed earlier in the summer, according to the Vickers Weekly Insider Report, a service that keeps track of the insider trades...In the week ending July 13, for example, insiders of companies whose shares are listed on the NYSE and the AMEX sold 3.66 shares for everyone that they bought. By the week ending Aug. 17, the comparable insider sell to buy ratio had fallen to 0.92. Not only is such a dramatic decline itself bullish, it also is quite positive that the sell to buy ratio actually fell to below 1. That means that insiders were buying more shares than they were selling, which is quite rare. In fact, the last time that the insider sell to buy ratio for listed companies was as low as it was in mid August occurred in October 2002, almost precisely when this bull market started." I feel better now about my 199 individual stock purchases that I made all the way down into the well. Another case of throwing money down the dark rabbit hole and I guess I wasn't alone.

http://www.marketwatch.com Mark Hulbert - Bullish on the Inside 8/31/07
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Too many investors have been under the media's spell as these investors have been too scared to take advantage of the two great buying opportunities the market presented them with this year. The first one was in March and the other in August. As Don Hays put it, the news is the camouflage that drives the herd crazy. Volatility can indeed be used as a "big stick" to hit small investors with and send them running for cover. But this stick has two edges and the end result of the recent volatility spike will be positive for stocks." Watch how some of our members react and you'll see a valuable lesson.

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/droke/2007/0830.html
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Fortunately the subprime fiasco is not a threat to the U.S. economy. It is nothing more than a symptom of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Without credit expansion these loans would never have been made."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8332.htm
The U.S. Economy: Manufacturing is the Key Factor, not the Sub-prime Market
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

According to Henry To - "The daily NYSE hogh-low differential ratio (number of new highs minus number of new lows on the NYSE divided by the total NYSE issues outstanding), hit a reading of negative 33.93% on August 16th - a level not seen since August 31, 1998, when it hit a reading of negative 32.71%."
MCSUM behavior accompanying price rallies in the coming months should be closely monitored to see if the NY A/D MCSUM falls short of the +500 level. If the MCSUM fails to avhieve the important +500 zone, it will be a sign liquidity is drying up for whatever the reason. We don't want to have another signal like the year 2000. You all know what happened, right? The MCSUM never got above +250. A clear signal though pricing was still placing new all-time highs.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"Fortunately the subprime fiasco is not a threat to the U.S. economy. It is nothing more than a symptom of the Fed's loose monetary policy. Without credit expansion these loans would never have been made."

http://www.safehaven.com/article-8332.htm
The U.S. Economy: Manufacturing is the Key Factor, not the Sub-prime Market

Interesting article, Birch. I like what he pointed out about the $7 billion dollars in foreclosures pales to our $28 trillion economy.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Birchtree, I really think that it is GREAT that you continue to post here. We really need the buy and hold represented here and you do a great job and justify it well, keep on with the keeping' on!!!!!
Norman:cool:
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Thanks Norman - it's just another day in staying creative. I really can't wait until Dow 15,600 arrives. I'll smell like a rose instead of that ole superlative manure.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

You are one Hard Headed Devil!:D When I say this You have to understand that I know where you are. You have made your money and you have the ability to use your, your, your, ------the best way to make money is to have money to invest, you have it, must be nice, YOU ARE THE MAN!!
 
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Re: Birchtree's account talk

The truth hurts. It takes time and money to make money because shooting from the hip only works short term. I have yet to see any Forbes 400 members who were day traders. At the end of our careers we're cashing in the grand total, not a percentage.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

nnuut,

It has taken me forty years to achieve my current base and many of those years were shaped by the college of hard knocks - it's never easy. I'm beginning to feel like Tom Petty and ready to really try rock -n- roll. Elliott Wave has a potential of a Dow over 17,000 and some see heights of 30,000. If projection becomes reality then glutony is my new mantra. Snort. Be in to win.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT,

A lot of folks are trying to find the cheese and dodge the cat.
Some of us have killed the cat and are eating cheese.
While U are sitting on the moon with miles and miles of cheese and no cats!

Did I get it right!.....:D

My vet, my friend!
Later
Spaf
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Spaf

I do have a realtively new Tonkinese kitten that will turn one year old the end of this month. She has been leash trained and will be going to the mountains with me in November. And yes I have to pay extra to let her sleep with us. She likes to ride in the car and will go through toilet training when we return and I have time. I did make a cheese statement under the thread "Cheese", apparently you've been out on the "Lilly Pad" and haven't caught up to it yet. Take care.

Dennis - permabull #1
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Sometimes I feel so fortunate when we have these down moves - why you may ask. Well it's because I have a pile of dividends that will be arriving all this week - and they are being reinvested at lower prices which buys me more shares. More shares will mean a larger dividend to be paid again in another three months. It becomes a self feeding system as long as I hold the stocks. I have some that go back for years and can run several pages that show the history of pricing and reinvestments. I enjoy looking at the increase in step up shares as time goes on and it really hurts when I have to eventually let one go to raise cash to buy these temporary bottoms - but we all have to make our own sacrifices. Snort.
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

"The amazing truth: Folks who had properly spread their bets back in 2000 didn't feel much of a pinch at all."

http://www.money.cnn.com Dan Kadlec - You're not a kid. Stop investing like one 9/6 Personal Finance
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

BT
Pardon but I kind of disagree! Reason being, my mutual fund company did not give any guidelines of what "properly spread bets" in 2000 should be. The only talk I heard was to buy "tech" stuff".

Granted you are savy with your diversification. However, some folks relied on the advice of others, and were not told when to "park" their funds in bonds, etc. I have to admire your stock spread, you are somewhat self-protected.

Ok, so talk on! What is your opinion of being "properly spread" ??

PS: Birch is my friend, so I can ask him his secrets......:D

"The amazing truth: Folks who had properly spread their bets back in 2000 didn't feel much of a pinch at all."

http://www.money.cnn.com Dan Kadlec - You're not a kid. Stop investing like one 9/6 Personal Finance
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Ok, so talk on! What is your opinion of being "properly spread" ??

Yeah, I'd like to hear your opinion, Birch. You're often talking of the stocks you buy and the mega bull market, but are you also spreading your bets into bonds and gold? Or are you doing crazy options spreads with calls and puts spread across different expirations? Or do you buy any of those mutual funds that do all that thinking for you? What's the scoop? :)
 
Re: Birchtree's account talk

Gents,

It's good to have the questions. I would define my investment approach with one word: simplicity. I'm strictly an equity man at this point. The only mutual funds I own our in TSP and my wife's Florida Retirement System. I don't play with puts or options or even ETFs. Back in 2000 I stayed away from technology and instead was buying REIT stocks, energy, utilities, basic materials, industrials, all things that were out of favor and boring. Was I envious that I was only making moderate dollars when everyone else was riding the tiger, of course, but I was also not a fool. I rode my Ducati down into the triple bottoms of July 2002, October 2002, and March 2003, and simply continued to load up on the boring stuff. I was redeemed in the 3,000 point run of 2003 and have yet to look back. If I have a secret it is simply to be future oriented. I like to position myself ahead of the market and let the market come to me. All you have to do is be correct on the trend and right on the individual purchases. I mean look, who in their right mind wants to buy housing stocks now - well I do and I am.

Presently I have 226 individual stocks in my oceanic account and many of them I have owned for years - sometimes they hurt me and sometimes they show admiration. During the last two correction I made 18 sales to raise cash at different levels of price. During the July-August correction I made 199 individual stock purchases, buying all the way down to the bottom of the well. You simply have to enjoy the pain that lower pricing delivers. Now that I've chosen my destiny I'll sit tight and see where the market takes me. If we go to 15,600 and beyond serious money will come my way. If we head into a recession then I'll be selective in some profit taking (who wants to pay my taxes) and just sit tight and continue to reinvest my dividends. You simply have to do your homework and be confident in your investment choices. That is what makes the difference in the investment arena - know yourself and your limits. I've often thought about the possibility of taking my account short against the box - you could call it a fantasy because I'd never do it. Now I am slowly approaching the time when pistol shooting may be a practical solution to the boredom of old age - taking my tugboat out for some quick runs could be the right answer. Ocean has more money than I do and it appears he's getting more active - soon me too.
 
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