Birchtree's Account Talk

[Birchtree]

JTH,

I do believe that large cap may outperform going forward. Today the mutual funds were backing up and profit taking on their tech positions. I pumped out $65K to try and stay ahead of the damage curve and have some cash to catch the next ride up. So far in two days I've unloaded $115K - the last time I did this I unloaded to the tune of $192K and now have to pay taxes on the profits - ouch. I really don't like to sell but there are times when prudence is the better part of valor. I'm staying long and strong with my TSP tugboat account. I did manage to move 5% on the I fund at $19.05 to the G and will move another 5% out of the S fund sometime in February. I'm not changing my strategy because the market is acting out - still looking for the end of June to be the bigger 10% or better correction. These last two weeks I believe is just a temporary consolidation. I did get some great dividend reinvestments yesterday and today. The big truck pulls up in March. Well that's my life in a nutshell. Snort.

 

[coolhand]

Perhaps we'll get a last hour run to trap a few bears - nothing but negative vibes all day in the face of good economic news. Let'em trash the bull all they want - but I'm holding my positions - no selling on all those technical reasons being given.

Don't forget, you were suppose to bail when the VIX dropped below 20. It was a good plan.

Hesitation is expensive yanno.

 

[Birchtree]

coolhand,

Yes indeed it would have been an excellent plan if executed properly - but I'm sticking with my original plan to lighten up when the VIX drops below the 20 level on the way to June. I did sell off my 38 shares of SNS today at $318 for $12,100 and a profit of $5,100. I now wish I had bought a few thousand shares at $3. I also unloaded: NFX, VHI, GT, MDR, CNH. That should give me some breathing room with cash to catch the next train - the market will eventually recognize the sweet fundamentals and off we go. These little painc down moves are really designed to scare mom and pop so that is healthy from a bullish perspective - the worst is yet to come in June.

 

[Birchtree]

Well here we are, a new day and a new week, as well as a new investing adventure. As I've mentioned several times you must be aware and understand the fact that we are going to see frightening retracements the higher up we go. Bull markets do not like company and the higher we go the stiffer the pullbacks will be to make sure that not everyone is participating as we continue to move higher and higher. Under Elliott guidelines breadth should now start to expand exponentially and if you look at how the NYAD line has been moving up over the last 6 months, this is the kind of thing that should continue for more than awhile.

Some of you already know that my oceanic account is a $2M base and my desire is to protect this foundation base from my margin volatility. I plan to build another portfolio within the oceanic to strictly act as a sentinel to protect that base from sell offs. I continue to reinvest my dividends and will continue to DCA those positions. I've chosen or rather Mindylou has chosen a list of 23 stocks that will be available to participate in any short term pullbacks as a sacrifice. It would appear that 2010 may be a lot like 2004 and will hence provide many opportunities to shake some short term profits and also with the help of other board members will help me save my base intact. If we have a year that looks like 1995 then it's a ride of a life time. I'm going to list margin play stocks and you'll notice I'm leaning heavily on the commodity side because that seems to be where the volatility resides. The plan is to purchase multi-thousand share positions of each and then be selective on the backup. Here they are: ACI, ARG, ANR, AVY, CXG, CSX, AA, CX, CE, CLF, FLS, GCI, GT, HP, JCI, LZ, MAN, NAV, NFX, BTU, MEE, RKT, WLT. So we'll see how this strategy works out. I fully plan to make some very serious money with this market this and next year - opening up the tap and ready to let if flow. I'm still $180K away from my first $1M from the March bottom but I'm patient.

 

[Birchtree]

Our president appears to be a lame duck - good for him, it's a blessing. Now he is going after the earned income tax credit folks - good for him. They need some attention.

 

[Warrenlm]

The blacks in DC have turned against Fenty in a big way saying he's not done enough. Our prez makes a big deal out of lectures and baby steps in savings ($120M savings give me a break), all the while using words and the media to fool his supporters. I wonder if Fenty's fate awaits him and if so will either or both reclaim their bases before the next elections.

 

[Birchtree]

A nice rally today approaching 90 points - what we need to really deliver some fear to the bears is a run up of 250 points by the close. I know the strength is available so bring it.

 

[poolman]

A nice rally today approaching 90 points - what we need to really deliver some fear to the bears is a run up of 250 points by the close. I know the strength is available so bring it.

That's true Birchtree, It would deliver some fear to the bears and the strength is there But

The Sentiment is not there and we have to many problems right now.

IMO, The Highs of this year have already been seen.

 

[Birchtree]

I decided to go in and pick up a few DCA pebbles off the beach: UBS, TWIN, TRV, TRN. Tomorrow I should have enough buying power to really load up - no backing off with this rally turn. Will I get caught with my hand in the cookie jar - perhaps. But if I don't I'll have a head start to rebuild my portfolio.

 

[Steadygain]

two Union cannon balls embedded in the wall and are part of the history.

Speaking of balls. Have you noticed Buster's avitar -- you could not fit one of those in your hand :nuts:

But seriously I'm glad it went well Birch.

I did shed a tear but regained my composure when I walked her down the aisle to give her away.

That's wonderful Birch -- I figured there was a good chance you'd tear up a few times.

Before we went into the church she said she knew the sacrifices I had made and that I was a great dad

That's why I just can't deal with the other stuff Birch; so I'm better off not even looking at it. To me it never comes down to the cost of dollars spent; whether this person or that had the right reason and all the other stuff -- to go on and on as though the ones who actually made the sacrifices don't even make any difference...

She has a clue what sacrifices you made because she was willing to make the same sacrifice by going to Iraq. There is just no way something of that magnitude can honestly be measured.

- I said I hope to be a great grandfather too. She told me how fortunate she was because she could see the difference between her friends parents and how we were. She said her friends were never given any guidance with their life decisions and I told her not to worry because there would probably always be an opinion somewhere from me - not that she had to listen to them.

That's kind of funny Birch ~~ in that Sarah had viewed me the same way for so many years Then she spends months and months doing her own research to determine what should she believe and becomes a 'Pasifist'

So I've softened a lot because of her. But I'll step on spider before I gently gather it up and take it outside ... and and in other ways I still am far from her.

Well on the Market Stuff --
Do you think overwhelming BEAR sentiments will stop the BULL ?
Do you feel others are too suspectible to FEAR?
Do you see yourself as standing alone and is that awkward?

 

[Birchtree]

Steady,

I found a nice lake house - now I have to earn enough money to purchase in a few months or wait until another trip this summer. I just missed a foot of snow or I'd still be in the mountains.

In my opinion there is nothing that can stop this bull - bearish sentiment will only feed the bull further. The more contrary the better. We are all susceptible to fear - but I try to control mine. I don't like the feeling of panic but I'll try to use it in my favor. I've always stood alone as an investor since the early 1970s and it has never bothered me. It is nice to belong to a comfy MB with as much warmth as this one has. Snort.

 

[Birchtree]

Let me tell you all a story. I've been looking for property in Western N.C. for the last three years. I'm interested in lake Glenville or a place called Chinquapin. Until I was there last week there had never been a price drop - now let me tell you that reality has settled in the area finally. All lots have been reduced over $200K each and the four bedroom two bath lake place I checked over has been reduced also. No one dares to buy in this recession environment - but this may be my opportunity to sift the bottom of this realty market. I'll be making another trip later this summer to see how the situation is going. If money is available property is waiting. The wife and I had dinner in a menmbers only club and ran into six young ladies who worked local. One was a banker, one was a realtor, one was married to a home builder - you'd be surprised how much information you can gather from a group like that. They openly talked about the economic slow down and the number of summer homes that were coming on the market - the young banker mentioned an increase in foreclosure offerings - that made ears perk up. So I'm rather confident I'm going to end up in Cashiers, N.C. at some point - even if I have to buy just for the summer until my wife decides to retire. I told her once my oceanic reaches X amount of dollars she is going regardless and has kindly agreed if I can reach those numbers she'll retire. I'm going to buy myself into happiness the rest of this year.

 

[Birchtree]

I thought I might offer a sneak peek into my wife's Florida Retirement System Investment Plan since I don't offer much in the tell of my own TSP plan. She remains only $59K from her all time peak and will make that up with 25,000 units of her aggressive SPX tracking fund. We are talking $25K per point to the upside. Her year to date performance through 12/31 was 25.08% and all she did was ride the Ducati up and down the valley. An integral part of her plan is the monthly dollar cost averaging which definitely was the redeemer as always. With this defined contribution plan the money is all hers upon retirement - not waiting for a monthly check like the rest of us. Anyway, this account has the potential to reach $1M within the next 24 months of solid bull market activity holding to the buy and hold strategy.

 

[jimijr]

"I'm going to buy myself into happiness the rest of this year." I'd start with something like this: http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/84Be...ewItemQQptZUS_Cars_Trucks?hash=item2c52e935b5

I love my '84 380SL.

 

[Birchtree]

Some fun reads and video here: http://theguruinvestor.com/

 

[ballnoutacontrol]

Hey Birch, thanks for being my guiding bull. I don't know where you get your confidence in the markets direction, but it has helped me to stay invested and keep making returns. Just so I know how good of a bear are you? Eventually there will be a top right?

Thanks, Ball'n

 

[starfox182]

I'm new and you seem to know what your talking about so I almost copied your allocations Birch. (5 / G , 70 / C, 10 / S, 10, I). I'm hoping to ride your info to the top!

 

[Birchtree]

"Interestingly, while the move lower on Friday signaled the break of support, it might be just the catalyst to have the market resume its up move. Most people (on the MB) will be assuming that a new downtrend is beginning and that it's time to cut out of longs and go short, these are the sort of conditions that the market loves to reverse on. In this really big picture, we seem to be at a similar point to 2003. As long as the market can stay above the 20 month EMA (on a monthly basis), the new bull market scenario remains intact."

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article16916.html

 

[Birchtree]

I'm working on building my margin escape account today: bought ACI, and AA. If we can hold up after 1430 hours I may return to DCA some of my home builders. I love Teddy bears.

 

[Steadygain]

I love Teddy bears.

Me too Birch !

You know our little kid brother married one and she's the Ultimate Teddy Bear



Well I went IN today to chase the BULL -- -- but by the time I catch it -- you'll have at least 2% more than me.


With today's IFT restrictions -- I don't see how you can be absolutely certain you won't miss the UP days -- unless you Stay IN.