BIGGDOG ACCOUNT TALK

[Birchtree]

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Biggdog 1,

I've been out catching peterheads tonight - they are everywhere - I actually think another just signed on - I'll be doing battle for days ducking shit balls.

Anyway, I spent most of the holiday viewing technical analysis graphs from a number of different sites and have arrived at the conclusion that we are on the cusp of an initial thrust upward very similar to March '03. I've been looking at some McClellan Oscillators and McClellan Summation Indexes. The majority of the indexes to include NYSE, NDX, SPX, OEX, are all near new recovery highs or are going to be testing their volume and breadth highs this week. The NYSE volume MCO went to a new recovery high last Friday. Waiting for the NYSE volume MCSUM to move above its zero line by mid week. This all very similar to the sequences that took place in 3/03. These are all internal observations not widely perceived by the general public. At this stage the risk is being out of the market - not in. You have to be in to win. This has the potential of being explosive, so I'm just sitting tight in my newly built Ark - just in case the flood waters arrive. Take care this could easily be a 1000 point run to the all time Dow high of 11,722.98.

 

[biggdog1]

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What in the world of wide, wide sports went on today ? Should we go or stay ? Still holdin' 50/50 C & S, but that could change before noon today. I'm not going to wait around like Oct. just to go broke.

 

[Spaf]

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biggdog1,

Things were going good till after lunch. Thats when the Cartel did it's thing! The Creature yaked and Vestors feared the return of Horseman Inflate. Target left the door open, bulls scattered and Vestors fled. Vestors were last seenconsolidating at the pub on the 1st floor.

We are on Grandma's washboard. Sure hope she kept her umbrella open, so we can break to an advance.

Rgds, and be careful! Spaf

 

[biggdog1]

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I don't like the way things are heading this week. I think I'll rebalance a little. I have to make my IFT's before I leave to go home at 06:30. Bambi I don't think we're in Kansas anymore ! ! !

 

[Birchtree]

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Biggdog 1,

This is just the pause that refreshes - if you are practicing safe sex, no I mean safe investing with dollar cost averaging this should be viewed as a buying opportunity. It's time to hold the line and be patient your profit will slosh around some. Wait on the CPI numbers - the PPI core actually decreased 0.3% compared to a 0.3% rise in September.

 

[cowboy]

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Birchtree wrote:

Biggdog 1,

This is just the pause that refreshes - if you are practicing safe sex, no I mean safe investing with dollar cost averaging this should be viewed as a buying opportunity. It's time to hold the line and be patient your profit will slosh around some. Wait on the CPI numbers - the PPI core actually decreased 0.3% compared to a 0.3% rise in September.

Only true if your playing the markets and if your just playing TSP u would have to be in G or F and jumped in prior to noon which u more than likely would not have done. So basically it meant nothing to a TSP player. Which is basically much harder to do. Cost averaing is fine except few in TSP would have done it yesterday. It was no play day.

 

[Birchtree]

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Cowboy,

You are correct on the timing mechanism - there is none with dollar cost averaging. A participant has to be willing to accept the price that is available when the contribution hits the account - somedays you get good pricing and somedays you have to pay up. But if a lazy investor has been dollar cost averaging for the last 20 months for example just buying all the volatility the shares are certainly adding up to a nice position. Now if we get a nice rock-n-roll rally that becomes extended in the next couple of months, the participant is forced to probably pay higher prices for the funds. If this future developes I will probably switch eventually when the sacrifice is to great into the I fund for accumulation. But that may be several years from now once the C fund reaches $17.00. Otherwise, who really knows how much longer this sideways activity will continue - just hedging the portfolio.

Dennis

 

[cowboy]

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I know your strategy is fine because I didit myself for some odd years. We all did this prior to having the internet available. If your watching the market your more volitile funds such as S & I go up and down at a quickerpace and if your trying to shortthe market usingthe TSP funds they are the funds u must play. The C fund isokay and much more conservative and can be actually used to conserve cash but at a higher risk than the safe funds such as G & F. I am starting to realize that playing these two funds will most likely just lose you as much money in a growing market as if you would have if you would stay in it and take a short term loss. This may change in a down market.

The biggest problem we all have is we freeze our assets! If your going to play u mustkeep moving and take losses and gains as they come! There is money tobe made daily if you hit the right fund at the right time.If your emotional than you will make mistakes constantly until you learn how to handle it. You will also make mistakes after u gain some control over your emotions but remember long term is always your goal.

Good Luck to you! Any investment in your retirement by saving will be successful!

 

[biggdog1]

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Bought back in with a slight rebalance. Is this the rally ?

 

[cowboy]

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Maybe?I'll be able to tell u next month when we can look back at it and say, "Yep I should of saw that coming." Hindsight is 20/20, forsight is unseeable! The G-boys were really talking early in the year but now the changing of the colors started a bit earlier than most expected and sometimes dips don't happen soon enough and you have to risk your position. This is often not an easy pill to swallow!

 

[biggdog1]

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Whew ! ! ! After this week I would have I would have never thought I wouldrecoup my Oct. losses. I have regained my 3Q cashand am now in the black and rarin' to go for the rest of this year. The Nicky and Footsy has been bustin' out with us too. Let's make some $ $ $

 

[Birchtree]

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Monday will probably be a sense of urgency day - if it developes into a big rally day then the rest of November and all of December is golden. My humble advice is to try and stay calm - just let it happen.

The market seems to be forming a consensus around low inflation, strong corporate earnings and oil prices that aren't likely to break $60 again anytime soon.

Dennis - perma bull #2

 

[biggdog1]

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Thanks for the support and advice. After what happened in Oct05 I get a little antsy. Bambi does not like me when I have to take her toys back ! ! ! I hope you are right and this thing is ready to roll into 2006. By the way how many cubits is this liner you are building and will it outrun those Somali pirate bassboats?

 

[Birchtree]

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It's an Ark only in symbol - but I did buy a used quad fifty complete with chair just in case I meet any unfriendlies. Hold them pistols for awhile - the bull will try and dump you along the way - but any pull backs from here should be quick and shallow. All I need is $0.08 to be happy for the year- anything else that falls my way besides Chicken Little is gravy. Have a good night.

 

[biggdog1]

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Night Night. Unfortunately I work Tour 1 USPS all night long. It's hard keeping up with the market during the day when your're :zz:zz:zz, that's why my IFT's are done early and sometimes I get burned. I'll try to stay a little patient and see what this week brings. I did get get very good returns this week.Take care.

 

[biggdog1]

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Wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee ! ! !

Well I was expecting a slight pullback today after finding out Saturday morning what GM was going toannounce today. Wellthe market just shrugged it's shoulders and went on even though Crude also went :}. Mr. Gates's new XBOX is here but your can't get it till after X-Mas.Thank you BOEING and Mr. Gates.This is starting to look like a typical Santa-rally. It could fall back a little Tuesday or Wednesdayand take off again Friday. Is a S&P 1300 highahead ? Who knows for sure. Last year the first week of Dec. had a few drawbacks and then the sun came out. Still holdin' 30/50/20 CSI. Birch as my grandson's buddy Spongebob says " I'm ready ".

 

[biggdog1]

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This is unreal. I'm up 4.24% for Nov. Can it go any higher ? Only the Market Gods know for sure. I'm still going to hang 30/50/20 CSI ( seems like a good spread ) until it starts to sour. Good news for the I-Fund today. Hope I haven't jinxed it. Beige Book report was awesome today also. Take the $ $ $ ! ! !

 

[biggdog1]

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Where's everybody goin' ? If this market didn't draw back this week it might not next week either. Recently the last week of the month has gave good gains. I think I'll play the odds and stay in until I see the bear coming out of the woods. Still holdin' 30/50/20 CSI until :*I see red. Good trading everyone and have a safe and happy Thanksgiving. I'm workin' tonight but will enjoy the feast Thursday.

 

[biggdog1]

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Well that drawback came Mondayand I got out Wednesday and lost Thursday's gain. The FED is going to kill everything. Anyway I'm back to30/50/20 CSI since Friday. Just barely doin' better than G-Fund returns for the 4thQ to date (Oct. thru Dec). Looks real iffy to reach my $$$ goal for this Q.

 

[Birchtree]

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Hooters, I posted on your account thread - sorry. We should see several 3 to 1 or even a 4 to 1 ratio of advances to declines in the not to distant future. I think we may be approaching the center of this up wave. Money will come out of gold quicker than you can say fetch and end up in equities. I'm enjoying my relief phase and can't wait for optimism to kick me awake - I'm going to be doing some serious stock buying to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars in the not to distant future - at least that is the plan. All I want for Christmass is Dow 11,722.98 and then I put'er in overdrive. Take care

Dennis - permabull #2