BIGGDOG ACCOUNT TALK

[biggdog1]

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Still making money, but I just can't set on the sidelines. I really hate buying back in at such high prices, but I guess I just can't believe what this market is doing right now. It seems to be doing just the opposite of what all indicators are telling what to do. Went back into stox for Tuesday. If it goes down I'll just sell and buy back cheaper. I had thought the Fed would raising but now I just don't know. Think I'll go to Wal-Mart and get me an new MAJIK 8 BALL.

 

[biggdog1]

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Bells and whistles what in thewide, wide world of sports is a going on here. Will Mr. Greenspan go out on a roar or will he just settle into the sun. Right now I'm figuring he's gonna make his mark on history and go :}:}:}just one more time. Dollar index is up right now this early A.M., but I think the I-Fund might be the omly place to make $$$ right now. I guess we'll seethis week o.

 

[biggdog1]

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FFFFFUUUUDDDDGGGGEEEE !!! Mr. Greenspan killed everything today (Crude,Gold,S&P,the neighbors dog). That rat blister. Well the market has been gaining a little back within a couple days of his actions. Sold and rebought today. Will hang around until the end of the week to decide if I'm running back to the G-Fund ( for those of you who hate the G-Fund "G-Fund 3.18% YTD" "C-Fund 2.09% YTD). These hurricanes are killing us. Bambi says to be patient.

 

[biggdog1]

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Dollar getting stronger against the I-Fund today. Think I'll just keep 10% there, Nikkei and FTSE looks a little weak. Might buy back later in week when it's cheaper. Damn crude is going up again just when I'm hitting the road for the lake. Let's make some money this week, Bambi and Odie need some new rawhide chewtoys.

 

[biggdog1]

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Been at the lake all week and look what's happened. Lost the last two Q profits. In the hole now. G - Fund is going to be my nest for a while I'm afraid until things change. Hope everyone hasn't done as bad as me. How you doin' Birchtree?

 

[Birchtree]

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biggdog1,

Getting ready to go into the hole myself - got $.20 more to sacrifice to stay even.

Today was 4 to 1 on the downside and consisted mostly of nickles and dimes - the bottom is approaching if it wasn't placed today. I'm prepared to sit tight and dollar cost my way back into happiness. Remember the decennial pattern has a perfect 125 year record. I hope it's a sleepy slow lift off back to the top of the trading range and once achieved open the gates and let the bulls run.

Dennis

 

[biggdog1]

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The month of October has not been very kind. After posting an IFT before I went on vacation,I come home to see thatI should have went G-Fund before I leftand everything would have been OK. It nowappears that I have lost ALL of my gains for the year and will not reach my goal for the end of the year. I hope that everyone else did not do as badly as I. Hopefully the last week of Oct. will improve and I will regain something. If not the G-Fund may be my home for a while. Good trading everyone.

 

[Spaf]

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biggdog1 wrote:

The month of October has not been very kind. After posting an IFT before I went on vacation,I come home to see thatI should have went G-Fund before I leftand everything would have been OK. It nowappears that I have lost ALL of my gains for the year and will not reach my goal for the end of the year. I hope that everyone else did not do as badly as I. Hopefully the last week of Oct. will improve and I will regain something. If not the G-Fund may be my home for a while. Good trading everyone.

biggdog,

Check your allocatios, what goes down, has to go up. IMHO, the downside was worries, not facts.

I'm relying on patience. Could be wrong, buts that my play.

Rgds! Spaf

 

[biggdog1]

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Spaf,I know butit just kills me to give $$$ back. However if Oct. will hold like the last three months this upcoming week is when profits could be made. If this is true I hope to get something of my loses back. Retail forcasts are not looking too good for the upcoming X-Mas season and that does not bode well with the FED alsopromising more rate increases into next year ( maybe another 1% rise ). The G-Fund might be my haven. Crude is coming down and I'm wondering if maybe that's not hurting the S&P now. Thanks for your imput, Iwatch foryour "WORDS OF WISDOM".

 

[Spaf]

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Biggdog,

I know it kills ya. It kills me too!

I tried timing the market based on indicators. I had some success, but it wasen't consistant.

Too develope a good strategy you need to have a good grip on both fundamentals (the big market/economy picture) and technical analysis (charts, trends, indicators, etc).

The web sites, TV, etc are full stuff thats nothing more than BS. They ain't got a clue, but to listen to them, they know it all. Some of the news letters are worthless. The same goes for what you hear from some investment companies.

Understanding the fundamentals is not an easy task. Tom is good at this. He brought onthe "Rev Shark" to lend support. Tekno is fairly good at understanding the fundamentals. Some others on the board understand the fundamentals, and others are learning. I just don't have the time right now to study the economics! Maybe when I retire.

However, this is a major handicap. Not only do you have to interept the data, you have to remove all the bad data first.

I have to put myself in the learning category. I just gotta listening to the folks in the know! Those that have removed the bad data, and interepted the good.

If we look aside from Tom's comments and the Rev. The last post in Market Talk - Economy was by Grandma on October 5th. The economy thread is probably one of the best threads on TSPTalk. We need more participation from folks that sorted out the good stuff!

On the last decline I tried a reverse strategy of dollar-cost-averaging, sort of buying in as it went down. One of those things "Birchtree" talks about, but in reverse. Heck I'll try anything once.

Moves have to be plannedwith a good strategy. Gut and emotional moves generally don't have a good outcome.

Thats about my 2 cents. Still searching for the holy grail! Rgds Spaf

 

[Birchtree]

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biggdog 1,

Sitting at 50% G will not help you - you have already paid the price for entry - but you don't take a loss until you IFT out of your current position - it's all on paper. The lows for October are most likely in place and we may diddle at these levels for who knows how long - that's where the benefit of dollar cost averaging comes into play. When you use dollar cost averaging on a consistant basis you are on autopilot - just go with the flow.

Here is a suggestion to reduce the level of G - pick a day of the week, any day - and IFT 5% of your G fund into the C fund. This will take about 10 weeks of autopilot investing - you don't have to worry about the investing climate - if the bottom is not yet in place you simply follow it down buying more shares at a cheaper price. However long it takes just keep buying weekly until the G fund is exhausted - chances are most of your buyes will be during a strong rally and will cost you more with less shares to own - but then again you will already have 50% C working for you. If you are so inclined you might think about having your payroll contributions added to the C fund fire sale - doing dollar cost averaging again on autopilot. Then again if you are overly nervous try this strategy on paper for fun and see how it turns out. At any rate - I'm sitting down at the bottom of the well and plan to dollar cost my way back to the surface no matter how long it takes - incidently at these current prices the longer it takes the better - this is a golden opportunity from my perspective - the more pain the better the gain. Look to the future because better days are on the way - and biggdog 1 you will do fine. Take care

 

[biggdog1]

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Returns to Spaf and Birch, since I'm so close to retirement I'm getting scared about these givebacks. WhenI went on Annual leave at the beginning of Oct.IthoughtI would get a little aggressive and went 30/30/40 CSI. Turns out I lost all my gains for the 3rdQ. Unless the market improves there is no way I'll get it back. Bambi bit me because I took all of her new toys back !!! I was making good gains in the I-Fund but now it appears Japan is souring also. I'm not a rocket scientist here and rely on gut feelings and a few sages on TSPTALK. A $100 loss per day is not in my plans. With this said I think I'll stay a little passive and see what happens. Thanks for your imput I do use it.

 

[Spaf]

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biggdog,

Wilma may bring some worries. But lets see what the market does with some of the reports coming out this week. Talk was that we may have some good nose, er news.

Rgds Spaf

 

[biggdog1]

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Okay, I'm wading back in a little Birch. I can't help myself. Went a little in the S-fund with 1/3 of the S&P reporting this week hopefully I'll get some bones back from the C & S funds. MAJIK 8 BALL says to go !!!

 

[biggdog1]

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Still going to hold at50/25/25 CSI. As usual the last days of the month held $$$ for all. Maybe Nov. and Dec will help regain some of Oct's losses. Think I'll wait and see how things look this week before any more adjustments are made. Good trading to everyone.



NOTE: Computers down in Japan. Nikkie not playin'

 

[biggdog1]

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Still holdin' 48/26/26 CSI. Think I'll wait to see what happens today before I make any future moves. Will probably sell my I-Fund before weeks end though. Don't forget this weeks Veteran's Day. May all those serving past, future and today THANK YOU !!!



***Changed my mind***

Went 20/50/30 - GCS

 

[biggdog1]

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Still setting 50/50 C&S for Monday. Does anyone feel that this is the rally we've been waiting for or is it going to bust? Birch yourinput since you stay mainly C-Fund?

 

[Greg]

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biggdog1 wrote:

That's something you don't see very often; a left-handed banjo player.

 

[biggdog1]

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You ought to see the rest of the band !!!

 

[Dakota]

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I, like tom, expect a pullback soon. so I went 100% g for a few days in anticipation. As soon as I c a pull back I will be 100% C and S fund. I am noticing almost everyone is waiting on this and I hope it figures the way we have it figured. I will hate to c a big rally tomorrow. I've done fairly well with what we've had to work with. Good Luck Dog



biggdog1 wrote:

Still setting 50/50 C&S for Monday. Does anyone feel that this is the rally we've been waiting for or is it going to bust? Birch yourinput since you stay mainly C-Fund?