Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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A nice move by the miners the last few days..... We shall see how this buy signal plays out....

GDX Daily:
 

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It sure has been a nice run. We haven't seen a 0.35 on the $CPCE data since around 2004. Based on the VIX data not many buying protection either.
 

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$VIX continues to move sideways along the 20.00ish area.
 

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A closer look at the $CPCE..... not that sentiment or put/call data even matters anymore.....

Bottom Line: The trend remain UP!
 

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Bottom Line: The trend remains up!


Holger Zschaepitz
@Schuldensuehner
· 6h
What can go WRONG? Global stock market cap hit fresh ATH this week at almost $100 TRILLION as investors learned that in current pandemic-stricken forward-looking HOPEFUL mkt bad news like weak Black Friday activity or disappointing US jobs data do not appear to matter much at all
 

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M1.....


Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

7h
Checking the data: M1 money supply increased by $500B, half a trillion dollars in ONE WEEK between Nov 16 & November 23. The largest increase in history by far.
WHY? and WHY NOW?
And why am I the only one asking this question?


Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

6h
And just to highlight the historic enormity and absurdity of it all, here's the zoomed in version.
Don't think for a minute this is consequence free.
 

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After painting a somewhat dire picture in my global depression article, I wanted to expand on the developments that have me concerned. It’s clear to me that the retail trading frenzy is reaching extremes. Typically, this type of behavior precedes a collapse. I don’t know what, and I don’t know when, but the market seems vulnerable to a devastating breakdown.


Trading Volume is Exploding: Average daily trading is up sharply in 2020. Volume has jumped from 2.5 million to over 7.7 million in the last three quarters. Note- This only accounts for E*TRADE, Schwab, interactive brokers, and TD Ameritrade. It does not include Robinhood, so the number is probably much higher.

https://goldpredict.com/archives/27178
 
A lot of posts to digest there.

Sentiment is running high, but it was also running low the last week of October.

Options were once a tool to offset risk by large traders. Nowadays, all you have to do is buy a few on margin if people are talking about it at reddit.

Outflows/inflows, hard to measure their meaning. In theory don't we have some 10,000 baby boomers retiring every day who are drawing down funds or shuffling their money around?

A good sentiment gauge here is the "how much % I made last month" and "how much money you have in your account" threads. Two threads that serve no purpose but comparing sizes - and there weren't too many people posting there in early spring 2020. I wonder how many people see posts in those two threads and decide to make short sighted decisions in the lucky lottery. I also wonder how many of those people actually have a plan.

In early 2020 some guy at work was bragging about making something like double the S&P 500 in 2019. He managed to convince two people (that I know of) to join in on a certain trading service. Not sure how he did, but I know the other two have less money now than if they just kept things the in that same L fund they were in during 2019.

Having a system in place takes all the noise out of the equation. Problem is, you have to have faith in the system and follow it without emotion.
 
Love it or hate it - All I can say is the trend remains up so you should be long, but with a reduced position size.

The red bars in the chart below show one of the more extreme syndromes of “overvalued, overbought, overbullish” conditions one can define. The specific conditions are shown in the chart text. The bars with yellow shading show instances where this syndrome has been in place, and the S&P 500 dropped at least 7% over the following month. All of these instances, prior to those of the past few days, are shaded yellow.

Hypervaluation and the Option Value of Cash
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

December 2020
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc201201/
 

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Testing the upper BB again while trying to make another new high.... It has been a nice run.
 

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Each time it bumps it, it pushes it up higher. Even if we see a little red; it facilitates a run when it takes off. We are fully imbedded
 
"Each time it bumps it, it pushes it up higher. Even if we see a little red; it facilitates a run when it takes off. We are fully imbedded"


Most investors love stocks right now, and the Fed continues to pump money to their primary dealers. My system remains on a hold long positions as the trend up continues, and I'm a Trend Trader..... I use the 3 ema and the 13 ema for trend trading and around ten indicators for risk management. Right now the risk/reward is high.

“There is only one side to the stock market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side” Jesse L. Livermore The move up continues....

https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader


Trend Traders:


We can never presuppose that we are so smart we can tell, unerringly, what the markets will do next.

Trend timers do not try to anticipate reversals or breakouts. They respond to them.

Trend timers are not prognosticators. We just identify and follow trends.

Trend timers believe the markets are smarter than any of us. We make it our business not to try to figure out why the markets are going up or down, or even where they are going to stop.

Successful trend timers identify trends, trade those trends, and patiently allow them to play out while their profits grow.

Predicting the markets is a fool's game. It is fun to do over cups of morning coffee, but if you want to beat the financial markets, you must identify and trade trends.

You must also stay with your trend trading strategy through thick and thin. If no one can consistently predict where the markets are going, they also do NOT know when the next trend will begin. Taking all trades guarantees that you will never miss it when it start.

https://www.fibtimer.com/subscribers_historical_reports/200920_fibtimer_commentary.asp
 

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Not for everyone, but it works well for me.....

SentimenTrader
Moving averages are one of the most commonly used trend following indicators that helps determine the market's trend. In this video we will be looking at:

1. What are moving averages and how they are calculated
2. How traders use moving averages
3. Skepticism towards moving averages
4. How well moving average strategies work

Moving averages demonstrates the market's trend by averaging out the market's price over the past n periods and hence cutting down the noise caused by day to day fluctuations.

We will be looking at a few strategies that fit into the following 3 main groups of strategies:

1. Trend Following strategies
2. Mean reversion strategies
3. Trend Filter strategies

And finally using data, we will show you how well moving average strategies actually work in different markets.

Read the full post at https://sentimentrader.com/blog/movin...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DeTQt9cjiU&feature=emb_logo
 
Insiders are also cashing in shares.....

Stocks are hitting new highs, but there's one group that looks like it's sitting out - the smart money. Even as stocks ticked at records last week, the Smart Money Index (SMI) was languishing near its lowest level in a year.

The idea behind this indicator, popularized by money manager Don Hays and existing with many variations, is that emotional trading takes place at the beginning of the trading day (as traders react to overnight news events and economic releases) while the "smart money" takes the day to evaluate price action and input their orders before the market closes. That concept may seem quaint now in the era of passive funds overwhelming late-day volume, so perhaps this view is no longer accurate.

Regardless, it's unusual to see stocks rally so hard and the SMI sell off so drastically. Using Bloomberg's version of the index, we can see just how wide this disparity is now

https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog/as-smart-money-sells-option-speculation-hits-record-high/
 

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robo said:
Most investors love stocks right now, and the Fed continues to pump money to their primary dealers.
Click to expand...

Tech stocks trading at 1,000+ P/E's are sure to fall from grace, but short sellers keep getting gassed out by some serious recency bias (BTFD), FOMO and seasonality tailwinds in effect.

"Buy TSLA and retire early, it's so easy OMG I can't believe people lose money in stocks - and bitcoin. They always go up!"

These people have already drunk too much egg nog and will pay handily for their stock market education down the road. It is not different this time, just as it wasn't different in March 2020 when a world collapse was considered. In this case, money printing won't bring back the lost jobs and businesses that had to permanently close their doors thanks to poor state management.
 
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