Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Have not seen this going into FOMC in a while

We have not seen such a big rise in VIX prior to a FOMC event in a long time. On the contrary, the crowd has been eager to sell VIX pre FOMC, and have ended up chasing VIX at much higher levels post the event.

This time around people are actually acting more "rational", but buying VIX here is not cheap. After all, the SPX is down 55 handles from all time highs close...

https://themarketear.com/

 

[robo]

I bought a few more shares of GDXJ and EQX during the gap down this morning. How low will she go this time?

 

[robo]

Speaking of history, and looking at historical data...... I still think the current market is like 1929....


Traders Have a Choice: Play Seasonality or Play the Fed
If history is a guide, then traders should be relaxed during this final run into the New Year…

That’s because markets tend to rally around this time.

Since 2000, the average return for the S&P 500 during December has been .70%. In fact, the fourth quarter in general is the strongest of the year.

Some call it the “January effect.” It’s a theory that says markets tend to rise in January due to temporary price dislocations caused by things like “tax harvesting.” Another theory is that investors use their year-end bonuses to buy stocks around this time.

But none of it’s true…

You see, the average returns in January since 2000 are actually negative on average.

So, either this seasonality story has been priced into the market where traders simply front run it and actually buy in December… or it’s a case of “groupthink” around a prevailing narrative.

Today, I’m going to show you the only thing that actually matters in the market, not just for this week, but also for the upcoming year…
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/mar...ve-a-choice-play-seasonality-or-play-the-fed/

 

[robo]

This past week in gold
Jack Chan
Posted Dec 13, 2021


Testing support again.

Summary

Long-term – on SELL signal.
Short-term – on sell signals.
Gold sector cycle is down.
$$$ We have liquidated all of our positions and in cash for the down cycle.


Silver: Speculation pulling back from levels of previous tops.
Dec 13, 2021 This past week in gold Jack Chan 321gold ...inc ...s

 

[robo]

Sorry, but my Magic Ball is Broken. However, this data provided by Jeff is a good ST warning indicator for sure. We shall see how it plays out.

VIX daily chart: VXX filling the gap


The Crystal Ball Is Flashing a Warning
Jeff Clark | Dec 13, 2021 | Market Minute | 3 min read

The “easy money” from the recent buy is done.

Any further gains from here are going to be hard fought. And, if our crystal ball has anything to say about it, the stock market is more likely to be lower two weeks from now rather than higher.

the VIX calls are more than double the price of the VIX puts. When we’ve seen this condition before it often leads to a higher VIX in the days ahead. And a higher VIX usually goes along with a falling stock market.

Traders who bought into last week’s buy signal might consider trimming some profits today.

And, folks who might be looking to put more money to work in the current environment might have a better chance to do so in the days ahead.

Best regards and good trading,
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/the-crystal-ball-is-flashing-a-warning/

 

[robo]

No shorts
Can we end the year at all-time-low shorts?
https://themarketear.com/posts/ctTWDy9LsQ

 

[robo]

My current position is a ST trade. We shall see if we get the bounce next week.

Gold update looking for a bounce on the FOMC meeting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnxxSHor5_U

 

[robo]

My current position is a ST trade. We shall see if we get the bounce next week.

Gold update looking for a bounce on the FOMC meeting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnxxSHor5_U

 

[robo]

Hmmm..... Wait until the next Bear market and new investors start BTD way to early.

 

[robo]

I have been buying some shares again during this beat down. We shall see if we get a bounce, or gold just continues lower. This is a tough sector to trade.... I DO NOT invest in the metals or miners. I only trade this sector.

GOLD DIVERGENCES
Dec 4, 2021 | Gold

Gold has been diverging from macro and market data. Our macro-driven gold price indicator (a fair value forecast based on macro inputs like the DXY, yields and CPI) has jumped as higher inflation overcomes the negative impact of the strong USD.
https://www.variantperception.com/2021/12/04/gold-divergences/?mc_cid=20d2b16dbe&mc_eid=5b348a9ca0

 

[robo]

Gold/GLD Monthly charts:


Gold – Still Waiting on a Trend

This is the one chart to watch for gold’s next trending move. Gold is in a monthly triangle consolidation. In a triangle consolidation the cycle low can migrate to the apex of the triangle. A bullish close above the declining monthly trend line should result in a powerful trending move.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2021/12/11/gold-still-waiting-on-a-trend/

Dec 03, 2021

The gold miners' stocks continue to vex contrarian traders, toying with herd psychology. They blasted higher to a key technical breakout in early November, building bullishness. But that was soon dashed on the rocks as they plunged into late November, fueling bearishness. While such schizophrenic action seems capricious, it is all driven by how gold-futures speculators are trading to bully around the yellow metal.

Gold stocks surged higher in recent months fueled by huge gold-futures buying. But when those upside bets on gold grew excessive, heavy selling soon erupted to rebalance overall spec positioning. That is what hammered gold stocks back lower in recent weeks. But speculators' gold-futures-selling firepower is very finite just like their buying. The next couple CoT reports will offer key insights on whether it is exhausting.

Dec 03, Gold Stocks' Futures Ride Adam Hamilton 321gold ...inc ...s

December 3, 2021
Seasonal Gold Rally

Since US citizens could once again purchase gold in 1975 there have been thirtytwo years with a positive bias from a November/December low into late January.
Twenty-six saw prices drop enough that a rise in the RSI(9) back above 35 by the
end of December identified an interim low. Realistic stops were three percent
below the swinglow. Most lows also generated a Sequential 7 Buy Setup.
Both criteria are now in place.

http://www.321gold.com/editorials/hoye/hoye121121.pdf

 

[robo]

We are still seeing an above average short position by the commercials for ES on the weekly COT report. Maybe it doesn't matter, but it's still a data point I track.

For the record: I DO NOT trade based on the COT report, but it sometimes sends out warning signals to keep positions a tad smaller.

 

[robo]

That is SWEET!

Thanks! This is my current plinker, but my scope is a tad better then the one he is using. I will use this rifle for a fun gun, and the new one for serious target shooting. This one is just like a Ruger 10/22, but with upgrades.

Volquartsen VM-22 Rifle
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y-ruad2ZwGs


My current plinker: See picture below.

My scope: Sightron SVIII 5-40x56mm ED IR Zero Stop Riflescope: They run around 2k when they are on sale. I will be putting this scope on my new build.
https://www.opticsplanet.com/sightron-sviii-5-40x56mm-ed-ir-zero-stop-riflescope.html

 

[bleeck]

That is SWEET!

 

[robo]

Ordering one of these next year for my Birthday. I like to shoot 22 LR targets for fun, and it's much cheaper then shooting center-fire ammo. I currently have a pretty good set-up, but a Vudoo Ravage will step it up a notch.

Have a nice weekend!

https://vudoogunworks.com/rifles/ravage/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8BnGrvnrww

 

[robo]

SLV daily and the COT report: The data for SI continues to improve as the price moves lower.

 

[robo]

My last buy...... I like to shoot at the range for a hobby with my son. Sorry, I will not be posting xmas pictures with all of us holding AR-15's. I shoot much less these days due to the high price of ammo. LOL..... up in smoke for sure.

https://cz-usa.com/product/cz-shadow-2-orange/

 

[robo]

I trade SILJ GDX, GDXJ, SLV, and AGQ indexes. I'm currently long some EQX too, for a trade only. It is a small position.


Gold Stocks Bottom: Near But Not Quite Here



Dec 10, 2021 Gold Stocks Bottom: Near But Not Quite Here Morris Hubbartt 321gold ...inc ...s

For the record: I don't really care for the 321 gold site overall, as there are to many conspiracy theory dudes posting there. However, I don't read most of the crap posted there. Lots of gold bugs are conspiracy theory dudes. There are a few guys that just post their market thoughts on the metals and miners and keep the political crap out of their comments. Those are the ones I read their comments, and some are above average traders. LOL.... Everyone has an opinion and I respect that, but I don't have to read it. The last site I posted at was full of them so I stopped posting there. We should all just stack gold, silver, and buy guns, ammo, and MRE's for the end of the world is coming. The gap guy was right at the top and always claimed to know what gold would do next. Just because you are educated, and a good writer DOES NOT make you a GOOD TRADER! LOL.... I have seen lots of good writers claiming to know what the metals and miners will do next and lose LOTS of money. They were POOR traders. The metal sector is one you should NEVER have more then a 10% max position. Well, that's my opinion anyway.

I just trade the miners not the metals, and I don't stack metals in my gun safes.

 

[robo]

We shall see! Keeping an eye on the COT.... As pointed out in the comments from Adam: Gold remains below the 200 sma on the daily chart. GLD remains below the 50, 100, and 200 sma on both daily charts. Some think that is about to change. LOL..... It could move lower too, but I have buying a few shares at these prices. And yes, they could get cheaper.

Gold Investment Apathy
Dec. 10, 2021 2:14 PM ETGLD, IAU1 Comment2 Likes

Summary
Gold has ground sideways for a half-year because investors are apathetic. As momentum players, they aren’t interested in gold until it powers high enough for long enough to look sustainable.

With that not happening, gold has suffered gradual-yet-persistent capital outflows since mid-summer. Recent gold-futures buying didn’t last long enough to spark investment buying.

But this gold indifference will end. Inflation is raging due to the Fed more than doubling its balance sheet since the stock panic, and gold remains the ultimate inflation hedge.
Gold has spent the past-half year grinding sideways on balance because apathetic investors are missing in action. Note in this chart that gold's 200-day moving average, which illuminates its short-term trend, is closely following GLD+IAU holdings lower. The next gold upleg again depends on gold-futures buying forcing gold high enough for long enough to convince investors to return. That is probably coming soon.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/44...urce=seeking_alpha&utm_term=RTA+Article+Smart

 

[robo]

LOL..... I sure like (ST = short term) trading the VIX...... I use VXX and would NOT recommend most trying to trade it. If you do.....keep it small..... Te VIX smashers are always at work!

The epic volatility crash

SPX - ready for the vol puke 2.0?

SPX is trading at all time high close levels...and VIX is just shy of 20. The latest market rout is still feeding through the system, and as we all now, vols react with a lag. Our "optimal" set up continues developing. Let's see when you should cover the short vol VIX guy trade, and possibly even reverse that into a long vol pre Fed (depending on vol levels).
https://themarketear.com/