Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

Is SILJ leading or lagging the SPX? We shall know soon....

Bottom Line: I'm flat SILJ, reduced stock positions, and hedged remaining positions with PSQ. I will be watching UUP and HYG for tells.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HYG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p81107152681&a=836201126

Looking to buy SILJ again.... Note the ebb and flow of SILJ candlesticks and the SPX purple thick line. One is probably going to converge on the other soon.

 

[robo]

WEEKEND GOLD FORECAST NOVEMBER 22, 2020
Posted on November 22, 2020 by admin

Gold prices are rolling over, and I see the potential for a bearish breakdown as soon as next week.

If gold breaks below $1850 sooner than later, that could open the door for an extended correction into December.

Overall, precious metals are in structural bull markets, and sharp pullbacks are considered long-term buying opportunities.

https://goldpredict.com/archives/26937

 

[robo]

We shall see....

Why Wall Street's "Most Accurate Analyst" Expects Another Market Correction Before Year-End
Profile picture for user Tyler Durden
by Tyler Durden
Sun, 11/22/2020 - 14:30

However, at the same time, he also cautions that in the near term he sees the risk of yet another drawdown in stocks, which would be the third 10% correction since September. This will be catalyzed by the market's realization of the "bad news" that "the vaccine won’t be ready for mass distribution for another 3-4 months as case counts and deaths increase." Still, once this small correction is in the rearview mirror, which perhaps may even trigger additional Fed easing during the Dec FOMC meeting when the Fed is expected to extend the maturity of its TSY purchases, Wilson remains "a steadfast bull on a 12-month view in terms of both the earnings outlook and the market."

Bottom line, as we look forward to a more normal year in 2021, we expect US equities to remain firmly in a bull market. In the near term, stocks are elevated and may have to contemplate a second wave in the absence of a fiscal deal and before the vaccines can be widely distributed. The real opportunity next year for investors is likely to take place below the surface in smaller-cap stocks that have greater sensitivity to what is likely to be a very strong economic recovery. Along these same lines, financials, consumer services, materials, industrials and cyclical technology stocks should do best.

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/w...st-expects-another-market-correction-year-end

 

[robo]

Is the SPX/SPY topping or just consolidating? We shall know in the days ahead.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up...

 

[robo]

Amazing move for IWM on the monthly chart. The thick red line is the M1.....

 

[robo]

VXF = The S fund. It is extremely stretched above the mean (The 200 dma)

Happy Thanksgiving! Times are tough for many this year.

 

[Bullitt]

From that ZH post, most accurate analyst:

it is very difficult to envision how the broader stock market can rise if the handful of "hedge fund VIP" names, which just happen to be the largest companies in the world in which everyone is invested, are aggressively sold off in the coming quarters after leading the market to all time highs for the past decade.

Yeah, I agree. Everyone talking Santa Rally again like people are going to be bum rushing the doors of their local Target or Wal-Mart. Big money is already 100%+ invested, RE: NAAIM.

Insider selling has been through the roof since early November.

 

[robo]

The trend remains up, but not a time to be 100% long in my opinion.

Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader
·
Nov 25
Over 75% of US money supply has been created in just the 12 years since 2008.

 

[robo]

Even At The Peak Of The Dotcom Mania Stock Market Sentiment Was Not As Euphoric As It Is Today

jessefelder
November 24, 2020

It was almost a year ago that I highlighted the fact that Rydex traders were getting very bullish again. To be clear, I’m referring to the Rydex Ratio, “or the measure of Rydex traders’ assets in bear funds and money market funds relative to their assets in bull funds and sector funds.” As of last week, this ratio fell to its lowest level on record. In other words, these traders are now positioned more aggressively bullish than ever before, including the heady days of the dotcom mania 20 years ago.

https://thefelderreport.com/2020/11...sentiment-was-not-as-euphoric-as-it-is-today/

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!

 

[robo]

No surprise here.... Harry dent is Bearish!

Harry Dent: Stocks to crash 40% by April and won't rebound for decades, here's why (Pt. 1/2)
202,340 views•Nov 25, 2020

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f6Xoown-P54&feature=emb_logo

 

[robo]

Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader
·
5h
Pedal to the metal.
Quote Tweet
Joumanna Bercetche Flag of Lebanon
@CNBCJou
· 7h
Wow , strong like bull:
- largest 3 week inflow EVER into global stocks (surpassing Jan 18)
- largest inflow EVER into EM debt & equity
- 2nd largest inflow into value stocks (after Dec 19)

 

[robo]

$VIX Weekly: Filling the gap

 

[robo]

IWM Monthly - How about this for a monthly candle. (See chart)

It's up and out of the upper BB, and not much fear out there as the $VIX continues to move lower....

These are sure different times, and full of extremes. Just when I think I have seen it all I get another surprise. I guess this is just part of the new normal. Huge moves above the upper BB on a monthly chart.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up!

 

[robo]

Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

12h
The most valued market in history is approaching month end with the lowest monthly options/equity put/call ratio ever as asset managers are the most long positioned ever.

It is literally the most one sided and most complacent market ever.

 

[robo]

Sven Henrich
@NorthmanTrader

13h
Getting there

 

[robo]

GDX Weekly: A nice bounce off the 50 wma, but I still haven't bought shares back....

Cycle data: I don't buy based on cycle data only. Gold and the miners have a history of bottoming in December, but some that is because of the dollar. I continue to track and look to buy.

Miner Support

On the weekly chart — the Miners formed a bullish weekly reversal this week at support from the 50 week MA. Only once in the past 5 years did the intermediate Miner cycle stretch past 32 weeks — and that one ran 33 weeks. So at 36 weeks, once a weekly swing low forms it should signal the new intermediate cycle. A break above 35.57 will form a weekly swing low. The Miners did close below the lower weekly cycle band to end its weekly uptrend and begin its weekly downtrend. Closing below the lower weekly cycle band indicates that the Miners are seeking out their yearly cycle low.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2020/11/28/miner-support-4/

 

[robo]

GLD December Bottoms: Purple vertical lines. We are getting closer, but I wait. There will be plenty of time to buy once the trend is confirmed.

 

[robo]

GLD weekly: A closer look.... GLD still has two big gaps left behind, but I don't if they will fill. GLD is close to tagging the 50 wma, and it's a good spot for support to happen. The miners usually lead and are sending a good signal too, but still no buy for me. So I will wait. I will be buying SILJ....

 

[robo]

SILJ daily: Have a nice weekend! A bounce off the lower BB has been a nice short-term trade for months now. We shall see how this bounce plays out. You can see buyers sure came in Friday. The divergence remains a concern as the SPY and SILJ tend to bottom together. Waiting to see which one is leading. Normally the miners lead and turn first.

Anyway, the bounce off the lower BB looks bullish for now..... So we shall see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

SLV daily: Silver was very stretched above its 200 dma, and is almost back home to the mean. It has really reduced the gap.... The 200 dma is around $19.00ish, but support has been around $20.00ish and has held up the last few months. I have NO position in silver, and will be buying the miners not the metals. Note the 3 big gaps that were left behind and could still fill as we move closer to the 200 dma.... I heard often during this move up we would never see $20.00 again from the silver bugs, but here we are as we move back closer to the mean. There is also a huge divergence between SLV and SPY...... That is not normal!

Good Trading!

Adam Hamilton

With silver remaining high despite being in a healthy correction, silver miners’ super-bullish trend of fast-improving fundamentals is likely to continue. That portends much-higher silver-stock prices in silver's next upleg.

While gold governs the extent of silver corrections, silver's 200-day moving average is strong support for major bottomings. Mid-month that was running $20.17 and rising. If silver challenges that at some point before Q4 ends, it would still be hard to imagine this quarter's average silver price falling under $22 or so. And if SIL-top-15 AISCs climb back up near $12, that implies major silver miners still earning $10 per ounce.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...ampaign=rta-author-article&utm_content=link-1