Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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The divergence continues, but the SPY just keeps moving higher..... The VXF and SPY both remain on a hold long positions using my daily data, but I'm flat... (The Risk Reward is to high for me)

This is day 8 that IWM has been below the 10 DMA sometime during the trading day or closed below it, and the VIX BBs continue to get squeezed. There is many other data points, but the market doesn't care.

Waiting on a VXX buy signal and a VXF sell signal to buy some VXX.

Bottom Line: The trend remains up with a bunch of warning signals and many investors and traders just really don't care about.

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=5&dy=0&id=p50441692232&a=701652435

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p67986481631&a=700872155

Looking for a XES buy signal for a possible trade...

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p34099182315&a=698911440
 
Warning indicator Cycles = Risk Reward.

The 11/23/19 Weekend Report Preview

Stocks formed a daily swing high on Wednesday.

Wednesday was day 34 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. So Wednesday’s swing high should send stocks into their daily cycle decline. A close below the 10 day MA will indicate the daily cycle decline.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2019/11/23/the-11-23-19-weekend-report-preview/
 
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Warning Indicator - HYG

Jeff Clark's Market Minute
The Biggest Medical Revolution Since Antibiotics
By Jeff Brown
November 24, 2019

The Most Vulnerable Chart in the Market
By Mike Merson
November 23, 2019
Print
By Mike Merson, managing editor, Market Minute

For the past three weeks, the market’s been all risk, all the time.

The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 have all made blowout moves to new highs. Hopes for a China trade deal propelled the move, of course. Just as it has for the past two years…

But if you ask me, none of this feels right. Stocks are heavy right here. Trading momentum is drying up. The price of stocks just isn’t lining up with how traders are behaving.

So, no matter what happens with the China trade deal, I think we’re setting up for one massive sell-on-the-news situation.

Jeff has preached all week that you should be cautious of this market. I’m in firm agreement with him. Judging by how the smart money has behaved, we’re just one bad day away from what could be a nasty correction.

Regards,

Mike Merson

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/the-most-vulnerable-chart-in-the-market/
 
The Index Of The Volume Of Speculation’ Is Rolling Over

jessefelder
November 20, 2019

What’s more, over the past 20 years, with the exception of the 2016 episode, when margin debt has begun to fall from such lofty levels it has coincided with a major market peak in stocks. Indeed, along with margin debt, the NYSE Composite, Russell 2000 and the Dow Transportation Average all remain below their 2018 highs. Investors chasing the new highs in the S&P 500 clearly believe, “this time is different.”

https://thefelderreport.com/2019/11/20/the-index-of-the-volume-of-speculation-is-rolling-over/

Opinion: As the market hits new highs, most stocks are sinking

By Simon Maierhofer
Published: Nov 18, 2019 5:15 p.m. ET

In a recent period of almost two weeks, the S&P 500 Index reached new all-time highs on four of eight trading days.

But on six of those eight days, more stocks declined than advanced (see chart below).

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...t-stocks-are-sinking-2019-11-18?mod=home-page
 


Head of the world’s largest hedge fund says report of a massive $1 billion bet that the stock market will tumble by March is wrong




Mark DeCambre

,MarketWatch•November 25, 2019


Ray Dalio, founder of the world's largest hedge fund, Bridgewater Associates, disputing elements of a Wall Street Journal report on Friday that indicated his fund was putting on a $1.5 billion bet that global stock markets would drop precipitously by March 2020. However, Dalio took to Twitter to attempt to disabuse anyone of the notion that this reflected an outright bearish outlook for markets. The Journal said the reported investment would represent about 1% of Bridgewater Associate's $150 billion in assets.

(Reuters) - Bridgewater Associates' Ray Dalio said on Friday his hedge fund does not have a net bet that the stock market will fall, taking issue with a story published earlier in the Wall Street Journal.
The hedge fund has bet more than $1 billion that stock markets around the world will drop by March, the WSJ said in its report on Friday, citing people familiar with the matter. (https://on.wsj.com/2pGbT53)
The bet, assembled over a span of months and executed by a handful of Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs Group Inc <GS.N> and Morgan Stanley <MS.N>, would pay off for the world's biggest hedge fund if either the S&P 500 <.SPX> or the Euro Stoxx 50 <.STOXX50E> — or both — declines, the report had said.

The bet is made up of put options, contracts that give investors the right to sell stocks at a specific price by a certain date. The options expire in March and currently represent one of the largest bearish bets against the market, the report added.

"To convey us having a bearish view of the stock market would be misleading," Dalio said in a statement.\

However, Dow Jones, the publisher of Wall Street Journal, said the article is based on interviews with multiple sources.
"The article does not report, as Mr. Dalio says, that Bridgewater has a 'net' bearish position on the stock market," a spokesman for Dow Jones said.
"The article made clear that the trade could be a hedge for the firm's significant long exposure to equity markets, among other possibilities."


more:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ray-dalio-denies-report-hedge-112006553.html
 
Note: Bearish indicator-

Yesterday I drove past the Flint, Michigan Chevy Truck assembly plant.

Normally, there would be about 300 or so trucks in the finished goods lot awaiting shipment.

Yesterday, there were about 2,000 sitting there.

Now, I know that the recent GM strike stopped production for four weeks- clearing out inventories at dealers,
but, I did not expect that big of an inventory buildup that quickly after the strike was over.

I don't know if that indicates transportation trouble getting trucks out to dealers,
or if that indicates dealer sales have suddenly dropped off.

I will be watching vehicle rebate incentives over the next month or two.

If incentives are raised, that will say inventories are too high.

If incentives are not raised, then I'm thinking it may be more of either a slight over-production issue, or a distribution issue.

"If GM sneezes, the stock market catches a cold".
 
James48843 said:
Note: Bearish indicator-

Yesterday I drove past the Flint, Michigan Chevy Truck assembly plant.

Normally, there would be about 300 or so trucks in the finished goods lot awaiting shipment.

Yesterday, there were about 2,000 sitting there.

Now, I know that the recent GM strike stopped production for four weeks- clearing out inventories at dealers,
but, I did not expect that big of an inventory buildup that quickly after the strike was over.

I don't know if that indicates transportation trouble getting trucks out to dealers,
or if that indicates dealer sales have suddenly dropped off.

I will be watching vehicle rebate incentives over the next month or two.

If incentives are raised, that will say inventories are too high.

If incentives are not raised, then I'm thinking it may be more of either a slight over-production issue, or a distribution issue.

"If GM sneezes, the stock market catches a cold".
Click to expand...

The indicators keep adding up Brother, and the market just keeps moving higher..... The cycle data is getting stretched too....

Jeff Clark's Market Minute
I’m Not Buying It
By Jeff Clark
November 25, 2019

Stocks are supposed to move higher this week.

The last seven trading days of November are historically some of the most bullish days of the year according to Jeff Hirsch, who publishes the excellent Stock Trader’s Almanac. Over the past 40 years, the S&P 500 has gained ground 28 times during this week.

That’s a 70% win rate. And, the average gain is 1%. That’s a solid, respectable outcome for seven trading days.

But, I’m not buying it this year.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/


Stock market update: crash potential (Short Video about the current daily cycle)

Smart Money Tracker -

I bought a new truck in 2008.... LOL.... maybe a good deal in 2020 is coming my way.....

Free weekend gold report.

https://goldpredict.com/archives/22317

I'm not a sub of any gold reports. I have my own system for trading the gold miners...
 
Ok, I get that there is lots of warning signals, and that's why I went flat..... But to continue to short this market, as it is trending "UP", and have your stops hit every other week, or remove them is very poor trading in my opinion..... Tracking a few trading systems that are a real waste of money in a market like this one. The "TREND" is up period. Go to cash if you think the risk is to high ( I did) but riding down TVIX or any other triple leverage index is not what I would be doing. I'm waiting on the next VXX or TVIX buy signal.... Made a few bucks day trading it, but It continues to trend DOWN!

I'm a serious trader too, but I use the daily and trade what is happening (the trend) and not what I think will happen based on data points and charts.... I hate this market, but VFX just keeps moving high. That is what I trade at Vanguard. It's close to the S Fund.....

The services here are much better for trend trading..... Using the Daily and the weekly data, and Tom points out the risks in his comments. Some are hitting "EXTREMES" for sure.....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZ_Pamlf4Dg&feature=youtu.be


Using the 10 DMA you can see that the daily trend ( daily closing prices) for the last 34 days has been UP! I'm not going to stay long in this market, but I'm not ready to short it yet...... Good luck for those that are...... I know some use VXX as a hedge, but I'm not talking about those trading systems....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76378023001&a=702047273

VST trading the 2 hour chart
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXX&p=120&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p50085799552&a=703005368
 
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The extremes continue to get more extreme.....

Bottom Line - The trend remains up, but the Risk is very high now........



SentimenTrader
‏
Verified account

@sentimentrader
2h2 hours ago
More
Our Intermediate Term Optimism Index's 20 day average (a sentiment indicator) is extremely high.

When it was this high in the past, $SPX fell 73% of the time 1 week later, and $VIX jumped 82% of the time 2-4 weeks later

https://twitter.com/SentimenTrader
 
Looks like a sell signal today for my system, (waiting on the closing price first - must close below the 10 DMA) but I'm already flat. I'm waiting on the next buy signal, which should give me a much lower risk buy in level...... So while I wait - Please pass the popcorn, and I will continue to only VST trade.... Trading some VXX. I'm expecting the VIX smashers to show up soon.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=10&dy=0&id=p82345730897&a=702047273
 
I use cycles as part of my warning indicators, but the trend is always the most important indicator.... Waiting on the next cycle low.....

Posted on December 2, 2019

On Saturday we noted that stocks had formed a daily swing high. They delivered bearish follow through on Monday.



Monday was day 41 for the daily equity cycle. That places stocks in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Closing below the 10 day MA indicates that stocks have begun their daily cycle decline. The daily cycle decline typically lasts 7 - 10 days. The peak on day 39 locks in a right translated cycle formation which gives us the expectation that stocks will form a higher daily daily cycle low. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then stocks will remain in their daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2019/12/02/daily-cycle-correction-3/
 
The the 10 DMA and the 20 DMA for VXF didn't hold, but the dippers be coming in.... The 50 DMA is up next "IF" we continue lower.... The gap at the 50 DMA should fill, but that's a "GUESS". I remain flat, and trade the trend no matter what the news cycle is doing.

I took profits on my VXX trade even though VXX remains on a buy...... one of a few tranches I had, but VXX is best used as a hedge. However, I'm flat VXF so I take profits quickly.

The following order executed on 12/03/2019 at 9:31 AM, Eastern time:

Account:
Transaction type: Sell
Order type: Limit
Security: BARCLAYS IPATH SER B S&P 500 VIX SHORT TERM FUTURE ETN (VXX)
Quantity: 400 share(s)
Price:* $18.75

Waiting.....

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=VXF&p=D&yr=0&mn=8&dy=0&id=p21626760823&a=702774295



SevenSentinels
@SevenSentinels

Tuesday 9:50:

Daily LOLR STS
Up Down* Down
1/6 0/7 2/5

*LOLR SELL Extrapolated for 10 AM

https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author
 
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The weekly data I track is for investors. It indicates hold long positions, but I trade the daily, and I'm NOT an investor.... I trade the daily cycles.....

Watching XES for a buy signal....... Waiting to see if we get a weekly sell signal and a failed weekly cycle...... This is week 8 for the new intermediate cycle......

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=XES&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51150139567&a=704155523



OFFICIAL LOLR SELL SIGNAL – This is a Critically Important TREND Signal, not a signal for immediate trades
https://twitter.com/SevenSentinels?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

I say we shall see, because I trade the trend........

Stock market mini crash underway

https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/
 
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In 2000 and 2008 the start of a rate cut cycle indicated a bear market for stocks was getting close.... Many seem to think it's going to be different this time..... LOL.... I can't wait to see how this plays out....

I'm flat and waiting for the next cycle low to go long again. In 2008 IWM did test its all time high before moving down.... There should be some good swings to trade, but investors will hate it IF it happens....

The daily trend remains down, and I remain flat.

The monthly data below, and the SPX was getting very stretched above the 10 month moving average..... ( Many investors love stocks and the data indicates hold long positions) LOL.... well most CNBC investors

Is this a repeat of 1999? ( see chart below when they lowered rates and the market bounced for several months) Don't know or care since I will just trade what is happening and not what I think will happen.

A BT of the 10 or 20 or more..... maybe less! We shall see.......

Did anyone buy IWM at $30.00ish in 2008 and hold?

https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=M&st=1998-01-24&id=p89934961253&a=701224970
 
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