Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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For COT watchers....

Commodities: Silver traders increased their net long exposure from a 12-year low of $150 million to $2.5 billion last week.

Coffee is starting to catch a bid as speculators are extremely net short, something to keep an eye on.

Cocoa producers are happily hedging future production at currently high prices. Current levels of long spec positioning in corn have marked short-term reversals over the past four years.

I should note that agricultural commodity prices have been depressed over the past few years, and Kevin Muir outlined the fundamental bull case here.

It's been interesting to watch speculative positioning stay elevated in WTI crude oil. Here's something to ponder. ~50% of the popular commodity indices (like the S&P GSCI and Bloomberg Commodity Index) track energy futures, mainly WTI.

More investors have grown fearful of inflation, triggering fund flows into passive long-only commodity ETFs for inflation protection. These ETFs, either directly or indirectly, have to get exposure to WTI. Inflation fear -> more commodity fund AUM -> more buying of WTI -> more inflation fear. Sugar, the #1 most crowded short commodity trade, continues to sell off. No reason to expect the crowded short positioning to matter much until the trend changes

https://freecotdata.com/commodities-2/
 
Posted last month..... I say we shall see!

April 1, 2018 – Rainmaker


If you’ve been trading for a few years, the thought may have crossed your mind from time to time that if you could just have one “monster trend” to trade, your life as a trader would be complete. “Give me one rainmaker and I’ll never ask for anything more.” But that thought has has seemed to apply to some legendary trend of the past or perhaps to a trend that you may see yet but in another decade- under different conditions.

If so, then this may come as welcome, if not shocking news: That “legendary trend” is underway RIGHT NOW!

Consider these “rainmakers” from history as compared to right now — 2018:

=======================================================

It was a heady time for stock investors, traders, speculators. The US of A had never seen a time like what we now call “The Roaring 20’s.” The Industrial Revolution and the assembly line production tactics had produced jobs and growth such as the world had never seen. Stocks roared ahead and by the late 20’s everyone was getting rich. People were taking tips from their barbers and cab drivers. The future never looked brighter.

But a not so funny thing happened on the way to Eutopia: The crash of 1929 and the great depression.

April 1, 2018 – Rainmaker – SevenSentinels.com
 
I'm currently only trading from the long side. I'm looking to BTFD again too for a trade.

Buying The SPY Dip

May 4, 2018 12:22 AM ET

OPEX Price Magnet

I created the concept of OPEX Price Magnets in June 2017, and have seen how the value of stocks and commodities have tended to exhibit mean-reverting behavior in and around the option expiration date. One point of mean reversion in many markets has been the point where the market is delta- or gamma-neutral on a given options expiration date. We call this point the “OPEX Price Magnet.”

In addition to the S&P 500 Index, the Powershares QQQ (QQQ) and the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) are both suggesting that techs and small caps could rally modestly in the days and weeks ahead. This gives us more comfort in our long position.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4169706-buying-spy-dip?app=1&uprof=46&isDirectRoadblock=true
 
We shall see!* Looking for a setup again....* My take - stay nimble in this market......

Jeff Clark's Market Minute

Get Ready for the Final Flush of the Correction

The bulls certainly have their work cut out for them today. A potential downside “flush” is looking more likely.

Please understand the term “more likely” does not mean “definitely going to happen.” But, after yesterday’s action, the charts are looking more bearish.

Again… I’m not saying this is definitely going to happen. Who knows? Stocks could find support right here, bounce, and then rally back above point D on the chart. That would be a bullish move and likely confirm the end of this correction phase. That seems unlikely to me – but anything is possible.

It’s important, though, to keep an eye on that red triangle. A close decisively above 2675 would be bullish. A close decisively below 2630 or so will probably lead to even more downside action.

The good thing about this setup, however, is that if the market does flush to the downside then it will likely mark the final, exhaustive move of this correction phase.

Best regards and good trading,

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/


$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
 
It looks like the SPX could move back above the 50 MA today...

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Comfort is Not Your Friend

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust

May 2018

Near-term considerations
With respect to near-term market behavior, the market has been fluctuating since February much like a ball does as it loses its kinetic energy. With each downward move toward the 200-day moving average on the S&P 500, the upward bounces have become progressively weaker. There’s no assurance that investors won’t shift back to speculative psychology, and we continue to monitor market internals on that front, but at present, the tendency of investors to buy dips in the market is showing gradually weakening follow-through.

The chart below illustrates a bouncing ball losing half of its kinetic energy on each successive bounce (h/t Jonathan Feucht), which looks a bit like the behavior of the S&P 500 relative to its 200-day moving average.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180508/
 
Why Yesterday's Breakout Could Be a Fakeout
The stock market just broke out to the upside.

The S&P 500 gapped higher yesterday. It popped above its 50-day moving average line, and rallied all the way up to 2701 before pulling back a bit and closing at 2698.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
 
I'm thinking this is a nice upwards bounce off of a good foundation. I think another 2-4% is easily within the possible outcomes over the next few days.

Of course- the minute I say something like that, is the minute the chart reverses and breaks bad-

But hey- it looks like a small foundation to me.

05-10-2018-big.jpg
 
James48843 said:
I'm thinking this is a nice upwards bounce off of a good foundation. I think another 2-4% is easily within the possible outcomes over the next few days.

Of course- the minute I say something like that, is the minute the chart reverses and breaks bad-

But hey- it looks like a small foundation to me.

View attachment 43130
Click to expand...

I just posted this in the forum I hang out in daily.

Roboman
Thursday 10th of May 2018 10:19:03 AM
Still looking very good..... I'll be watching the close today. It's the closing price that is the most important to me.... I'm still trading from the long-side, but getting a tad overbought for me now.... I'm selling today's stock market trading positions and headed out to lunch....

Good trading.

Still long some USLV and GDXJ.....

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

USLV | SharpChart | StockCharts.com
 
I don't trade Bitcoin, but it currently has an interesting relationship with stocks.

Roboman
Friday 11th of May 2018 06:43:13 AM
Bitcoin.....

Bitcoin Still Blazing Trail for Stocks

May 11, 2018

Back in January, I introduced readers to the revelation that all throughout 2017, the DJIA had been following in the footsteps of Bitcoin prices, with a lag time of about 8 weeks (56 calendar days). And it continues working even now, albeit with a slight adjustment.

Why would this relationship work? My answer is that there are cycles of human emotion which affect our collective attraction to and repulsion from speculative investments like the stock market. It appears that those same cycles of trader emotion are at work on Bitcoin traders, who are feeling those surges and lags in enthusiasm before they reach the hearts of stock investors.

The relationship did not seem to begin working until late 2016, which was when Bitcoin prices first touched $1000 and started getting people really excited. The 56-day lag time should have meant a Feb. 10, 2018 top for the DJIA, based on a calculation of 56 calendar days from Bitcoin’s Dec. 16, 2017 all-time price top.

https://www.mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/bitcoin_still_blazing_trail_for_stocks/
 
A Bullish Setup for Gold Stocks

Published May 11, 2018 - 7:30 AM

Gold stocks look headed higher in the short term.

With the exception of holding a few longer-term positions, I’ve personally avoided trading gold stocks over the past couple of months. Even though I’m convinced that gold and silver stocks will be much higher later this year, I was a little concerned about the possibility of some short-term downside action.



Yesterday, GDX broke out to the upside of an inverse head and shoulders pattern. This is a bullish pattern that signals the reversal from a bearish trend to a bullish one. And with this breakout, the target price for GDX is now up around $23.60 or so.

Note that this is a 60-minute chart. Patterns in this timeframe tend to play out over just a few days.

So, it looks to me that the gold sector is headed higher in the short term.

Best regards and good trading,



https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/
 
A few of the traders I follow at Seeking Alpha. I'll be watch the close today of a few very important indexes...

$SPX | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Headwinds For SPY Ahead Of Option Expiration

Summary
We see potential headwinds for SPY in the days ahead.

The Price Magnet for SPY and SPX suggests a modest pullback could occur prior to option expiration next Friday.

The VIX Price Magnet suggests that a modest increase in volatility could happen before VIX expiration next Wednesday.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4172979-headwinds-spy-ahead-option-expiration

Volatility Is Poised to Snap Back
Published May 14, 2018 - 7:30 AM
Volatility got crushed last week.

The Volatility Index (VIX) – often seen as a measure of fear in the market – dropped 14%. It closed Friday at 12.65 – its lowest level since the correction started in late January. In other words, investors are now about as complacent as they were just before the S&P 500 peaked above 2870.

From a contrarian point of view, this recent and sudden lack of fear among investors is a good reason to be fearful.

https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/


Sentiment Speaks: Gold Setting Up For A Major Rally In The 2nd Half Of 2018
May 14, 2018 8:01 AM ET

Summary
Confusion seems to be rampant in the gold market.

Gold is still holding support.

I expect a larger rally in the second half of the year.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4173562-sentiment-speaks-gold-setting-major-rally-2nd-half-2018


Gold And Gold Miners - Gold Bull Run Confirmed
May 14, 2018 2:54 AM ET

Summary
The US dollar made a breakout run recently, as I predicted.

Gold responded, down three weeks in a row, and fell to a low of 1,301.

But all evidence indicates that US dollar’s run is out of steam and gold has stopped dropping.

We will see another gold bull run in the following days.

This idea was discussed in more depth with members of my private investing community, Momentum Play.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...ll-run-confirmed?app=1&isDirectRoadblock=true


Speculators Continue To Short Silver At Historical Levels, But Should Investors Buy?

Summary
Gold speculative longs cut back positions for the third straight week.

Silver speculative longs increased positions by around 4,000 contracts on the week.

Silver speculators remain short silver by around 20,000 contracts, which is extreme by historic measures.

Based on speculative positioning, we remain bullish on gold and extremely bullish on silver.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/41...-short-silver-historical-levels-investors-buy
 
ANALYSIS, PERSPECTIVE, TRADING STRATEGY

WELCOME TO THE BRAVE NEW DIGITAL WORLD WHERE ROBOTS,
NOT PEOPLE MOVE MARKETS
Editor Joe Duarte in the Money Options, May 13, 2018

After a successful sneak attack on the unsuspecting bears over the last couple of weeks it’s now decision time for the robots as the stock market continues to follow a digitally precise textbook case of technical trading while the news cycle becomes uncertain.

Two weeks ago in this space I noted “I may be overplaying the contrarian card, but it looks as if the most under-loved stock market in the past eighteen months is setting up for what could be a fairly profitable trading rally.” I made this prediction based on the general tendency of robot trading algorithms to combine programmed responses to news headlines with basic technical analysis support and resistance levels to launch market moving trading programs. Furthermore because most technical traders don’t pay attention to the 200-day moving average, that particular chart area seemed like a ripe support level for a simple robot like sneak attack on the market.

Indeed, I was correct, and since I made that prediction, the S & P 500 has gained nearly three percent and has broken above what had been a key pivot point on the price charts near 2700. So now that the cat’s out of the bag, the real question is whether the robot traders will pile on and take SPX back toward the 2800 area or whether the rally is essentially over.

https://www.joeduarteinthemoneyoptions.com/reports/TA.asp
 
We could move lower, but getting close to a cycle low, and a bounce.

$GOLD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Bob Loukas
‏
@BobLoukas
23h23 hours ago
More
I've mapped 20 years of weekly gold Cycles. Never seen a 6th Daily Cycle in any weekly Cycle. Chart shows how we have 2 weeks left in this Weekly Cycle. BIG buy around turn of month. $GLD $SLV $GDX

https://twitter.com/BobLoukas?ref_src=twsrc^tfw&ref_url=https://thefinancialtap.com/premium-reports/

Is Another Drop Ahead For Tech Stocks?

Summary
We provide an example of how we are using the OPEX Price Magnets to trade ETFs.

We discuss technical signals that support a possible decline of QQQ in the days ahead.

We provide an overview of the Price Magnets and provide data to support our short thesis.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4174915-another-drop-ahead-tech-stocks?app=1&isDirectRoadblock=true


Has Gold Bottomed Yet?
May 17, 2018 1:28 AM ET

Summary
We review how Fed rate increases often coincide with cycle low for gold prices.

We look at key support levels for gold priced in USD on a weekly chart.

We look at support levels for gold priced in Chinese Yuan on a weekly chart.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4174914-gold-bottomed-yet?app=1&isDirectRoadblock=true
 
We shall see!

Greg Hunter
Published on May 19, 2018

Where does renowned financial and geopolitical analyst Martin Armstrong see big trouble brewing? Look no further than the bond market. Armstrong explains, “The bond market is going down. . . . We’ve already started into it. . . .You have to understand both Japan and Europe have destroyed their bond markets. They have completely and utterly destroyed them. They are the buyers. That’s it. There is no pension fund that can buy 10-year paper at 1.3% when they need 8% to break even. They are locking in a 10 year loss. They can’t do it. We have been helping major funds shift into equities because it is the only place they can go. . . . Once you start seeing the cracks in Europe, you are going to see interest rates rise faster than you have ever contemplated in your life. There is nobody in their right mind that can buy an Italian bond at 1.3%. It’s just not going to happen. Once the ECB is forced to stop, those rates are going to jump to 10% instantaneously. Once it starts to crack, that’s it, it’s gone. What is going to make everyone know it is cracking is when you see rates going up dramatically, and the ECB is at a point it just can’t buy any more.”

Armstrong does not see a big War in the near term, but one is brewing in the Middle East. What Armstrong does see right now is “increasing civil unrest.”

On gold, Armstrong sees the yellow metal “fighting a stronger dollar” but predicts it will have its day sometime after 2020 to 2021.

Join Greg Hunter as he goes One-on-One with financial and geopolitical expert Martin Armstrong.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DFRuRoqLKZU
 
Another go at the highs today.... The HYG indicator is sending out a warning signal...

VXF | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Gold and the miners.... A ICL is close.... Watching the dollar

$GOLD | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

GDXJ | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Long GDXJ and (ST trading TZA today)

Hallmark of an Economic Ponzi Scheme
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John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

June 2018

Hallmark of an Economic Ponzi Scheme

The hallmark of an economic Ponzi scheme is that the operation of the economy relies on the constant creation of low-grade debt in order to finance consumption and income shortfalls among some members of the economy, using the massive surpluses earned by other members of the economy.

https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc180604/
 
Swing trade data chart using SQQQ and TQQQ. These trades are kept small in size when I place them. I'll be looking for another VXF trade once we get closer to the next ICL.

The SOS numbers continue to be very high and are a warning signal to reduce long positions as we get deeper in the daily cycle.

https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2018/06/05/deja-vu-all-over-again-2/

Money Flows: Selling on Strength - Markets Data Center - WSJ.com

TQQQ | SharpChart | StockCharts.com

Good trading and investing!

Sentiment data:

The VIX at 9 again! Amazing....

Featured Chart | Technical Analysis Group
 
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