Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

When Real Tightening Comes, It Won’t Be by Choice

by Rick Ackerman on March 24, 2014 12:01 am GMT · 0 comments


The stock market has shown about as much steadfastness and clarity lately as a policy speech from Janet Yellen. Too bad all the markets seem to live for any more is channeling the Fed’s inner egghead. When Yellen says ‘Osduifhsd fui sadjnhj,’ investors say, ‘How high’? And when she says ‘Blufum doozney, tachak,’ the mosquito-brained slackers who package the news dutifully interpret this gibberish as meaning she intends to tighten. Too bad an inscrutable phrase or two from Yellen moves markets, since that obliges us to take all of her wily blather seriously. Having a Fed chairman around to “explain” monetary policy should never be less than entertaining, as Greenspan demonstrated time and again. Recall that, with his PhD in economics, he habitually referred to inflated home prices as “wealth,” and ballyhooed a supposed capital investment boom at a time when household savings growth was negative. This was hubris enough to give the already dismal science an even worse name, and the world would arguably be better off if Greenspan had stuck with the saxophone and worked the Catskills rather than the lobbies of power.

When Real Tightening Comes, It Won
 
This is update #1985 for Tuesday morning, March 25, 2014.


Emerging-market equities have shown substantially greater relative strength during recent trading days by not only generally gaining more than the Russell 2000 on up days, but also moving higher when general U.S. equity indices and funds have retreated. This theme is likely to predominate for roughly another year. Other lagging securities which had closely correlated with emerging markets, including coal mining shares, have also been impressively rallying on most trading days even when developed-market equities in Europe, Japan, and the U.S. have been mostly lower. Meanwhile, precious metals and their shares had encouraged many momentum players to jump aboard earlier this month when they made a typical false upside breakout and were among the top-performing subsectors. Those who should have bought gold and silver and the shares of their producers in December 2013, but waited until GDXJ had rallied more than 50% to "prove" that they had "confirmed" a reversal, have been appropriately punished as tardy investors to any concept inevitably are. GDXJ has now plummeted from 46.00 in the early morning on March 14 to a 3:57 p.m. low of 36.89 on March 24, which marks its lowest point since February 7 and represents a ten-day cumulative slump of just over 19.8%. GDX slid to a 12:57 p.m. low of 24.29, thereby touching its most depressed reading since February 10 and marking a more than 13.3% loss from its March 14 early morning high of 28.03. The 3:2 ratio between the recent percentage losses of GDXJ and GDX is similar to its ratio between their respective percentage gains during the uptrend from December 23, 2013 through March 14, 2014. The recent pullback is intended to shake out uncommitted investors, to trigger sell stops, and to encourage new short selling by those who believe in foolish brokerage forecasts of one thousand dollars per ounce for the yellow metal. If we are in a true bull market for precious metals and their shares, as I believe we are, then the subsequent rebound should be equally intense and should be followed by much higher highs for the current cycle.

True Contrarian
 
Gold Price Volatility

http://www.graceland-updates.com/images/stories/14mar/2014mar25gdxj1.png

24. Once tomorrow’s option expiry day is out of the way, and physical dealers in India are back in the market, the current price volatility should lessen. The gold market is probably just days (and maybe just hours) away from regaining the “steady as she goes” type of price action that it exhibited on the rally from $1180 to $1290!

Mar 25, 2014 Gold Price Volatility Stewart Thomson 321gold ...inc ...s
 
The One Chart You Need to Watch Right Now
By Jeff Clark

Thursday, March 27, 2014

If you're worried about trouble in the stock market, there's one sector you need to keep an eye on.

Banking stocks are the market's version of the canary in the coal mine. If there's going to be a correction, it'll show up first in these stocks.

This Chart Predicts Stock Market Declines
 
co-worker told me they found a roach in the coffee maker, after i already drank 2 cups. since then the market went down -100 pts. knew that was a bad sign :P
 
co-worker told me they found a roach in the coffee maker, after i already drank 2 cups. since then the market went down -100 pts. knew that was a bad sign :P

Happened at work too a few months ago. We ended up putting a rubber roach in the Kurig as a joke, I can't believe how many people we fooled with it.
 
I'm currently in the process of this myself on one of my trading accounts that has taken a beating from trading GDXJ and JNUG. Make sure you don't pay taxes with the funds you are converting, and you don't have to do it all at once, but that's what I did on this account.

https://www.scottrade.com/documents/formscenter/Bysis_SF2350_DirConverReq.pdf



This is update #1988 for Tuesday early morning, April 1, 2014.

Today's second main topic is Roth conversions.


When making financial decisions, trying to figure out whether a particular asset will go up or down may be an educated guess--but it is still a guess. However, with tax planning, there are clear winning and losing strategies. A few rare strategies allow you to change your mind if you were wrong, so you really can't lose. Therefore, even if you sometimes make inferior trading moves, you can more than compensate for these shortcomings by making especially intelligent tax planning decisions. I will give a specific useful example in this update.


I could easily write an entire book about this topic, so I'll try to focus on the most important points. Most tax "planning" is anything but intelligent, with investors mostly adopting ridiculous losing methods such as tax-loss selling. Those who sell assets during the final weeks of the calendar year may reduce their tax bill for that year, but will usually end up increasing it in future years and causing other problems by converting potential long-term capital gains into short-term gains, by selling the most oversold assets which are likeliest to rebound strongly during the next few years, and by making unnecessarily frequent transactions when they should be most patient. Incompetent tax professionals also tend to recommend strategies such as making charitable donations or otherwise increasing expenses in December without regard to whether the next year will involve a significantly higher or lower income. As a rule, you should accelerate income into years when your overall income is lowest, and lump together deductions during years when your income is highest. If you sometimes claim the standard deduction, you should lump itemized deductions together once every two or even three years, since otherwise they may be useless. It is understandable that accountants will promote their services as saving clients money in the short run, since that is a much easier selling point than the more involved task of making a long-term plan over a period of years or decades.


One strategy which is underrated is the one which I have been doing most consistently since June 2013, which is converting depressed assets from non-Roth retirement accounts into Roth retirement accounts. Let's suppose that you took a tax write-off in 2013 or earlier for contributing money to a 401(k), 403(b), 457, Keogh, SEP-IRA, traditional IRA, or some other non-Roth retirement account. If you did this with ten thousand dollars, then you were able to reduce your income by ten thousand dollars. Let's assume that you put the money into GDXJ which is now worth six thousand dollars. How can you benefit from this decline? You can convert your GDXJ holding into a Roth IRA, which locks in the six-thousand-dollar valuation for purposes of paying federal and state income tax next April 15, 2015. In other words, a year from now you'll have to pay taxes on the amount which you converted into a Roth based upon the value when you converted it. Assume that GDXJ does nothing more exciting than simply returning to its original valuation of ten thousand dollars. You were able to deduct ten thousand on a previous year's tax return; then you paid tax at the six-thousand-dollar level; and now it's worth ten thousand again. You therefore got a free gift from the U.S. government and your state government, since you paid taxes on your holding at 6K instead of 10K. In addition, all future gains in your Roth account will be tax free no matter how high it goes before you sell it. If you never spend the money in your Roth and it is inherited by a young person who will be able to withdraw the money gradually over a period of several decades, some of the gains might continue to be tax free for an entire century.


I have therefore been converting as much of my retirement accounts as possible into Roth retirement accounts in 2013-2014. I would do so even more aggressively, but if I convert too much in any given year then it will cause my tax bracket to be too high, so I am acting gradually. I plan to keep some of the money in non-Roth retirement accounts to donate to charities, where there is no advantage to having a Roth account. For all non-charitable purposes, the only good retirement account is a Roth account, because that is the only one where the eventual recipients won't have to pay taxes. This is especially true if your heirs are in high tax brackets. Because I used to have several employers and later began my own business, most of my non-Roth money is in traditional IRAs which were converted from 401(k) and 403(b) accounts of former employers, along with SEP-IRAs which represented a percentage of my Schedule C profits.


If your net worth is high enough to cause you to have to pay estate taxes, then it is especially important not to have money in non-Roth retirement accounts except for those which are earmarked for charities. The reason is that there will be double taxation on the amounts which are subject to estate tax: once when the estate is evaluated for estate tax purposes by the federal government and your state, and a second time when the beneficiaries of non-Roth accounts are required to take out money each year and pay taxes each year based upon ordinary income rates. For each dollar which is in a non-Roth retirement account which helps you to exceed your estate tax exemption, you will be taxed at roughly 35% by the federal government, various amounts by the state (15% for New Jersey, for example), and then the remaining 50% will be taxed as much as 50% by the federal and state governments who will assess the withdrawals by your heirs. This will result in an approximate 75% total tax which will apply to non-Roth retirement accounts. It is also possible that Congress will enact future limitations on the combined total of all non-Roth retirement accounts, so if you don't make this conversion sooner rather than later, you may have to do so eventually in larger annual amounts which will cause your current tax bracket to be notably increased. I continue to be surprised that those who have the highest net worth--including Mitt Romney himself, according to the data which was released when he was running for President--don't seem to be taking action to deal with this important issue.


I have been attempting to convert whichever shares are the most depressed at any given time. Last June and July, I converted mostly mining shares; then I switched to emerging markets in August and September; didn't do much in October or November; shifted back into mining shares in December; and then during the first quarter I have shifted back and forth between whatever seemed to be most compelling. In general, whatever I would be most eager to buy if I had unlimited cash reserves has been whatever I have been transferring in the largest quantities. I haven't completed my transfers, and in fact did some today for gold and silver mining shares. I have temporarily stopped transferring emerging-market equity funds because of their recent strong rebounds. In the end, I'm sure that some funds will remain untransferred, so eventually I'll sell them in a year or so and hope that there will be a future opportunity to shift HDGE or TLT or some future investments into Roth accounts. I'll probably leave one or two non-Roth accounts alone with the intention of using them for future charitable inheritances.


Usually, if you buy something and it goes down in price, then that's too bad. However, with these transfers, it's a win-win situation. Suppose that I transfer an asset--let's say KOL--and it goes down further instead of rebounding for the next year. You're probably thinking that I'll wish I hadn't converted it in the first place. However, I don't have to worry, because the IRS will allow me to retroactively change my mind as late as October 15 following the year in which I did the conversion. So if I decide by October 15, 2015 that it was a bad idea to transfer my KOL shares from a SEP-IRA into a Roth IRA in 2014, I can reverse the process. I fill out a form stating essentially that I changed my mind, and I'm going to put KOL back into my SEP-IRA. I have to make some calculations as to how KOL performed during this period, which most tax software can handle competently. I can then decide at a later date to try again with KOL whenever I think it's ready to rebound. If I'm right and it recovers, then I do nothing further; if I'm wrong again, then I recharacterize the transfer again and move it back into my SEP-IRA. I can keep trying over and over until I finally get it right. This is like being able to undo a purchase if a stock goes down, and therefore I am astonished how few people utilize this method in order to save money at zero risk. Probably I should have dozens or hundreds of accounts where I am constantly transferring back and forth, and in fact most brokerages now charge modest fees for recharacterizations (although not for rollovers themselves) because some people were abusing this process to achieve a risk-free heads I win, tails you lose scenario involving thousands of small back-and-forth transfers. As a former devotee of numerous board games as a kid, I can appreciate why some "nerdy" person would get great pleasure out of doing this. The number of total transfers I have done already exceeds one hundred, though in theory I probably should have done closer to ten thousand to maximize my gains (and drive my brokers crazy).

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
 
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Part two....

Here is the most coherent explanation I could find regarding Roth recharacterizations:

Recharacterizing Your IRA Contribution or Roth Conversion


The income from Roth conversions is subject to tax, but it doesn't affect your income threshold for contributing new money to Roth accounts. So even if you transfer hundreds of thousands of dollars in a single calendar year, it counts as zero when figuring whether or not you can contribute either 5500 (if below age 50) or 6500 dollars for yourself and a similar amount for your spouse. If your income not including transfers is below 178 (112 if single) thousand dollars in 2013, or 181 (114 if single) thousand in 2014, then you can make the full contribution amount for yourself and your spouse. Otherwise, your tax bill will be increased, so be prepared to pay your taxes from non-retirement accounts. This illustrates another advantage of making these conversions, which is that by paying the taxes from non-retirement accounts, you will increase the total percentage of your net worth which is in retirement accounts and thereby increase the total percentage of future gains which are tax deferred and/or tax free.


Of course there are always complications, as with any tax strategy. If you live in a high-tax state like California and you plan to move within a few years to a zero-tax state such as Nevada, then you may wish to postpone some of the conversion until you no longer have to pay state tax on the amount which is converted into Roth accounts. If the potential tax-free gains from rebounding assets is greater than the state tax involved, then it probably makes sense to do some conversion now, since you can still decide to recharacterize if the anticipated rebound is not as dramatic as you had thought it would be. The ability to change your mind and convert back makes it almost a no-brainer, since you really can't lose.


Why don't more accountants and financial advisors recommend shifting money into Roth accounts? It's probably because this strategy involves increasing your taxes during the next few years in order to substantially decrease your total tax obligation over your lifetime and the lifetime of your heirs. Your accountant probably doesn't want you to brag to your friends about how you're paying more in taxes since you hired him. This strategy also involves intentionally reducing your current net worth in order to improve the future net worth of yourself and your heirs, which is obviously also emotionally unpopular. What is important to remember is that if you have non-Roth retirement accounts, you don't really have all the money you think you have: the federal and state governments will get their share sooner or later. Two million dollars in a non-Roth retirement account in a high-tax state is really worth only one million, and if your net worth is fifteen million or more and you fail to convert it then it will eventually be worth only a half million dollars to your heirs. Once you think of it this way, then psychologically it becomes easier to want to convert because then it is really your money from then on, including all of the future gains.


For those who are not U.S. residents, there seems to be no equivalent in Canada as you can't similarly convert from RRSPs to TFSAs in unlimited quantities. I also don't see any similar analogies in Australia or elsewhere. Eventually, more governments will probably allow such conversions for the same reason that accountants detest them: they increase government tax revenue in the short run while sacrificing taxes in far-future years when someone else will be in charge. That's the real reason that the IRS encourages these transfers, and adds the recharacterization bonus to make it especially enticing. The more money that people transfer into Roth accounts, the more revenue the government will collect sooner rather than later. It is possible that such transfers will be restricted in the future, just as many tax rules have changed over the decades, so this is another reason to act in addition to the obvious compelling opportunity to take advantage of unusually low valuations for various securities. My guess is that I will end up saving more in taxes from my Roth conversions during the past year than my entire combined net worth after the first twenty years following my college graduation--and possibly by a factor of two or three. Therefore, before you dismiss this idea as a harebrained scheme, you should investigate the potential gains from doing so.


Take care.

Steve

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/
 
Thursday, April 3, 2014

While the media have been trumpeting recent all-time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, almost no one has pointed out that the Russell 2000 Index has failed to surpass its highest levels from early March 2014. IWM, a fund which tracks the Russell 2000, reached 120.58 on March 4, 2014 and a lesser-known 120.64 at 8:43:34 a.m. in the pre-market session on March 6, 2014--just after the monthly U.S. employment report was released. Since then, IWM has surpassed 120 several times, although not during April. The media rarely discuss the Russell 2000, which is a shame since one of the earliest clear signs that we had entered the previous bear market was when the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to new all-time highs in October 2007 while the Russell 2000 refused to surpass its July 2007 zenith. In past decades, a similar pattern has also prevailed: the crushing 1973-1974 bear market was preceded by notable underperformance by indices of small- and mid-cap securities in 1972, while the worst bear market in world history during 1929-1932 was foreshadowed by small-cap securities lagging during 1928-1929.

True Contrarian
 
My interpretation is we break the triangle and shoot for higher highs all summer long - no hesitation. Just a rampaging bull claiming victory for the faithful.
 
My interpretation is we break the triangle and shoot for higher highs all summer long - no hesitation. Just a rampaging bull claiming victory for the faithful.

You could be correct....NO ONE ever knows for sure no matter how many pretty charts they draw.
 
Great post by IYB, creator of the seven sentinels system. A trader I have a lot of respect for.

How to Boil a Frog - Traders-Talk.com

Thanks, I'll read it over. I had his service for a few years, but got hooked on trading the metals/miners and haven't followed him much the last year. I have different paid services now that I'm mainly trading the metals/miners. Trading the miners using 3X leverage indexes can be a heartbreaker, and an account buster that's for sure, but I like trading them.

I always looked over IYB's recommendations very close when he gave signals - buy or sell, and sometimes took them.

Hope you have been doing well trading. I have been under the weather some lately, and not posting much in any of the chat rooms I hang out in.

Take care.

Rambus remains short the miners and got stopped out of his long positions on the SPX and the QQQ's.....Savage is flat the metals and the miners. His daily comments are posted here daily and are free.

Korelin Economics Report

I'm long another TZA trade and flat the miners for now.

http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/jdst-buy.png


Kaplan continues to watch IWM for lower highs......

While the media have been trumpeting recent all-time highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500, almost no one has pointed out that the Russell 2000 Index has failed to surpass its highest levels from early March 2014. IWM, a fund which tracks the Russell 2000, reached 120.58 on March 4, 2014 and a lesser-known 120.64 at 8:43:34 a.m. in the pre-market session on March 6, 2014--just after the monthly U.S. employment report was released. Since then, IWM has surpassed 120 several times, although not during April. The media rarely discuss the Russell 2000, which is a shame since one of the earliest clear signs that we had entered the previous bear market was when the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to new all-time highs in October 2007 while the Russell 2000 refused to surpass its July 2007 zenith. In past decades, a similar pattern has also prevailed: the crushing 1973-1974 bear market was preceded by notable underperformance by indices of small- and mid-cap securities in 1972, while the worst bear market in world history during 1929-1932 was foreshadowed by small-cap securities lagging during 1928-1929.
 
Weekend Show – Sat 5 Apr, 2014


Great show this week with thought provoking discussions about issues like executive compensation, was yesterday in the U.S. markets the beginning of a reversal, will the U.S. economy ever revert back to completely free markets and some great company introductions. Our guests this week include some of the best in the business: Eric Coffin, Chris Temple, Richard Postma, Sean Brodrick, Rhylin Bailie, Dean Linden, Glen Downs, Jeff Deist and Eric Desaulniers. Enjoy and, as always, please comment on our blog.


Hour 1:

•Segment 1: Our expert panel consisting of Eric Coffin of the Hard Rock Analyst, Richard Postma AKA Doc and Chris Temple of the National Investor discuss yesterdays surprising market action.
•Segment 2: Eric Coffin, Chris Temple and Doc discuss shorting high frequency trading, and the potential impact on the little guys.
•Segment 3: Sean Brodrick discusses The Oxford Club. If you are interested in his free publication, go to investmentu.com.
•Segment 4: Dean Linden and Rhylin Bailie of New Zealand Energy discuss the nature of compensation in the resource industry.


Hour 2:

•Segment 5: Eric Desaulniers of Nouveau Monde discusses his company and graphite.
•Segment 6-7: Sean Brodrick of The Oxford Club, Jeff Deist of The Mises Institute and Glen Downs, Chief of Staff to Congressman Walter Jones, discuss politics and the economy.
•Segment 8: Is a change to a completely free market possible? Find out what Sean, Jeff and Glen think.



Executive compensation, U.S. markets, and some great company introductions « Korelin Economics Report
 
Posted here in Public Form

This next chart for the COMPQ I call my HISTORY CHART as it has all the interesting things that has happened during the last 35 years. It’s easy to forget some of these events but when your living through them it makes an impression on you. You can see where two wars started, the 1987 crash and other events that seemed like the end of the world at the time but in hindsight they were just another piece of puzzle following the price action to where ever it would lead us

Rambus


http://rambus1.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/nazdaq-history.png


This chart can be viewed by anybody who visits Rambus Chartology for Subscribers | The Finest in Technical Analysis and Realtime Market Commentary.

Permission to share granted

Fully (Scribe)
 
The Mother of All Bull Traps?
April 8, 2014 1:12 a.m. GMT

I’m on the record — more than once — with a prediction that the broad averages would plummet only after springing a nasty bull trap from record-high levels. But is that in fact what has happened? I can’t tell, at least not yet. What I had originally envisioned was that the Dow and S&P Index would climb at least 150-200 points above the old highs; that everyone and his mother would turn hell-of-bullish; and that the resulting hubris would reach a deafening pitch. Instead, the broad averages recorded merely marginal new record highs last Friday on the opening bar; then they began to fall at a pitch that could easily steepen into something scary this week.

Not only was there precious little hubris when this fleeting peak was recorded, there was outright skepticism. That’s because the short-squeeze that caused it was triggered by payroll data that everyone except the financial press knew to be worthless at best, a fraud at worst. Small wonder, then, that the report of 192,000 new McJobs added to the allegedly recovering economy generated a froth that lasted for all of ten minutes.

Was that it!? If so, and the stock market’s decline picks up steam in the day’s ahead, investors could find themselves wetting their pants by the time the closing bell sounds on Friday. I say this because if U.S. stocks have indeed entered a bear market, the jig will be up for the economic spinmeisters: their “recovery” hoax will be laid bare, The Great Recession will return with a vengeance literally overnight, and the dam will burst for economic problems that have been held at bay, albeit barely, by op-ed cheerleaders and the credulous, smile-button idiots who package the news.

Because EVERYTHING we pray for, economically speaking, has been riding on expectations of higher stock prices, it is plausible that the broad averages need not have reached fabulous new highs to set up investors for the Mother of All Bull Traps. We shall see. Meanwhile, at this very moment, in after-hours trading, mini-index futures are up the equivalent of 23 Dow points. This feels to me like a great short-sale opportunity. Of course, it exists only because there are but a relative handful of sleazeballs working the night shift, filling soft bids with exquisite delicacy. My guess is that by Tuesday’s opening bell, the game will have turned ugly.

Trading Newsletter for Gold, Silver, Stocks and Mini Indexes
 
This is special intraday update #1992a for Friday morning, April 11, 2014.


I bought SIL at 12.99 shortly after the open using 0.10% of my net worth, which I would rate as an 8 on a scale of 0 through 10. SIL is a fund of silver mining shares which historically has been more volatile than GDX but less dynamic than GDXJ. Gold and silver mining shares were widely detested throughout December 2013 when they completed a bear market which had begun in April 2011, and then became suddenly beloved by momentum players on Valentine's Day. The romance was brief, ending with a violent break-up in the second half of March when gold and silver mining shares slumped and in some cases lost more than 20% of their 2014 peak valuations within a few weeks. SIL slid 16.62% from its 14.86 peak on March 14, 2014 to its subsequent bottom of 12.39 on March 27, 2014 less than two weeks later. It is likely that important higher lows are being completed prior to another powerful upsurge as the bull market for precious metals and their shares soon resumes in full force. Today's low for SIL so far was 12.878.


I am continuing to gradually shift assets from non-Roth retirement accounts into Roth retirement accounts, in order to lock in their current depressed prices for tax purposes and to ensure that all future gains on those holdings will be free of taxes.


The most important development in the financial markets this month was one of the least reported: while the S&P 500 Index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged to new all-time highs in April 2014, the Russell 2000 Index and its related funds including IWM did not surpass their peaks from early March 2014. This is precisely the kind of divergence which has signaled about two dozen prior transitions from bull to bear markets during past decades, including similar behavior in October 2007 and January 1973 (and during 1928-1929). As investors progressively recognize that additional gains are unlikely to occur from their favorite general U.S. equity holdings, they will become increasingly eager to purchase assets which have recently been climbing the most convincingly from deep five-year lows. The idea is to act ahead of those buyers, and then to sell whenever they are most eagerly jumping aboard the bandwagon about a year from now.


As you can see from the modifications below, I have added additional higher rungs for those funds which I believe should be accumulated into weakness including SIL, HDGE, COPX, and URA. Viable alternatives include GDX, GDXJ, GLDX, and SILJ. I have removed all of my ladders for emerging-market funds due to their recent notable outperformance; if we have an eventual pullback for BRICs and related assets as we had experienced recently for many mining shares, then I may consider buying more emerging-market equity funds as they eventually complete higher lows. Typically, gold and silver mining shares lead coal mining shares and emerging-market equities by two or three months in both directions. My goal is to wait for the market to come to me rather than chasing after it.

True Contrarian
 
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