Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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I'll be selling my DUST in the pre-market for a small loss if gold keeps moving up this morning, and try again later.

Good trading.
 
looking at daily charts, we expect a drop in DJIA if I read that right. But more concerned about this patern tool that shows a steep drop between now and april. Know its all guessing and perception but still looking at it.

If the dow starts dipping will you transfer to G that day?
 
offroad said:
looking at daily charts, we expect a drop in DJIA if I read that right. But more concerned about this patern tool that shows a steep drop between now and april. Know its all guessing and perception but still looking at it.

If the dow starts dipping will you transfer to G that day?
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I would have to see around 1650 or lower in the S&P to take a position trade in the C Fund (Risk/Reward), but yes, I would if I liked the set-up. I'm not going long at these levels, but I'm a trader. When the indicator at sentiment trader is at 80 I will probably be short most of the time for a short-term trade with stops, and that's what I'm doing today.

SentimenTrader Home

For now I'm short the market using SDS, but I might buy some TZA this morning.

Good trading.
 
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offroad said:
looking at daily charts, we expect a drop in DJIA if I read that right. But more concerned about this patern tool that shows a steep drop between now and april. Know its all guessing and perception but still looking at it.

If the dow starts dipping will you transfer to G that day?
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The futures were up +50.00 most of the night.....the dip occurred right when you would expect some movement based on European conditions with Italy. But I think it is a good play to watch some more green today......However little......Volume is the indicator to watch......
 
Sold my DUST for a small gain. Gold is hanging in there tough so I'll try again later.

2/12/2014 9:47:59 AM ET DUST Sold DUST @ $23.1064 Executed

2/11/2014 2/14/2014 DUST BOUGHT SHARES OF DUST AT $22.51


I might take another DUST trade this morning ( Day-trade) if gold doesn't get going soon, but I don't like being short the miners. I like BTD.....

Good trading.

Adding TZA....

2/12/2014 9:45:43 AM ET TZA Bought TZA @ $17.678 Executed
 
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offroad said:
looking at daily charts, we expect a drop in DJIA if I read that right. But more concerned about this patern tool that shows a steep drop between now and april. Know its all guessing and perception but still looking at it.

If the dow starts dipping will you transfer to G that day?
Click to expand...

I was just reading over your comment/question again, and I would not be in stocks now at all (and I'm not) as we are trying to test the highs. Sorry, but I place lots of orders in the mornings and read your question quickly. Again, I'm currently short the market as I told you earlier, but have no desire to be long stocks at these levels. In my opinion the current Risk/Reward set-up is not good enough for me to risk retirement funds.

Good luck to you.
 
It looks like JDST was the better day-trade, but I'm still having an ok day with my other positions. Now, the important question is when do we buy shares of GDXJ and JNUG back?

Good trading.
 
I just hate those nasty little gaps...

One down and one to go......, but will it fill?

GDXJ - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

The one I watch the closest...( The Big Boy HUI) still has plenty of work to do to fill those gaps. Again, will they?


$HUI - SharpCharts Workbench - StockCharts.com

Watching and waiting on the metal/miners to trade and long SDS and TZA....

2/12/2014 9:48:53 AM ET TZA Bought TZA @ $17.698 Executed


TSP G FUND.


Good trading.


Oh, I think I sold my DUST a bit early.....
 
tsptalk said:
Nice close for JNUG. There was a cup and handle breakout on Monday and that should produce some support around 28. Still, I tightened up my stop to 32.50, just below some weaker support. I expect this to get hit, but just in case it wants to jump some more, I'm still in.
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As expected, I was stopped out and filled at $32.57. (.07 above my stop, which is weird, but I'll take it.)
 
Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Quick Look at GLD

Here is the latest number for the reported holdings of the big gold ETF, GLD. As of the close of business today, GLD is reporting total gold tonnage at 798.85 tons. For a bit of perspective, at the end of last year/start of this year, total holdings were reported at 798.22 tons. In other words, over the last six weeks, Gold holdings in GLD have increased a mere .63 tons!

Yet, the price has gone from 116.17 on December 31, 2013 to 124.43 or an increase of 8.26, some 7%.

What this tells me is that the biggest portion of gains that gold has managed to tack on in this key indicator of Western-based investor gold demand has come from SHORT COVERING, and not from a strong influx of fresh, eager buyers.

Trader Dan's Market Views
 
Europe Considers Wholesale Savings Confiscation, Enforced Redistribution

At first we thought Reuters had been punk'd in its article titled "EU executive sees personal savings used to plug long-term financing gap" which disclosed the latest leaked proposal by the European Commission, but after several hours without a retraction, we realized that the story is sadly true. Sadly, because everything that we warned about in "There May Be Only Painful Ways Out Of The Crisis" back in September of 2011, and everything that the depositors and citizens of Cyprus had to live through, seems on the verge of going continental. In a nutshell, and in Reuters' own words, "the savings of the European Union's 500 million citizens could be used to fund long-term investments to boost the economy and help plug the gap left by banks since the financial crisis, an EU document says." What is left unsaid is that the "usage" will be on a purely involuntary basis, at the discretion of the "union", and can thus best be described as confiscation.

Europe Considers Wholesale Savings Confiscation, Enforced Redistribution | Zero Hedge
 
Robo - can understand 30% of what you are saying, as am not a trader. My understandings are really low about short selling, and day trading. but find it interesting that if you invested in gold dust only a little while ago you could have made 7%.

Are their day traders who specialize in just IRA funds, with no loads? Can you do that? Is that what some are trying to do here?
 
offroad said:
Robo - can understand 30% of what you are saying, as am not a trader. My understandings are really low about short selling, and day trading. but find it interesting that if you invested in gold dust only a little while ago you could have made 7%.

Are their day traders who specialize in just IRA funds, with no loads? Can you do that? Is that what some are trying to do here?
Click to expand...

Offroad,


I’ll give you my 2 cents, and tell you what I do since I’m flat and waiting to buy the miners again. I was going to buy JNUG in the pre-market today for a day-trade, and I would be up well over 10%, but I didn’t have any settled funds. I’m sure many traders would disagree with what I do, and many will have different opinions and tools they trade with. I only use IRAs (2 Roth’s and 1 Rollerover IRA from some of my TSP funds) so I don't have to worry about short-term capital gains.

Trading using 3X indexes is very high risk trading and the gold/gold miners really increases that risk. I have different paid services that I use and those services all use different tools so they help me make my trade decisions or investments in the market. They use -TA, cycles, sentiment, waves, and contrarian investing are some of the things they use, and sometimes they are all incorrect in the short-term. There is NO such thing as a perfect system when you are short-term trading, and the only thing these services do for me is to help to give me an edge when I’m trading. If you are investing, most of them are a waste of money.

I’m currently taking position trades using GDX and GDXJ, but DUST, JDST, NUGT, and JNUG are for short-term or day-trading to me. You can hold a 3x position over night and be down over 15% the next day at the open with a gap up or down caused by some news event. So for me 3x indexes are only for day-trading. I could have held my TZA trade yesterday and it would have been a winner at the open today, but it’s down now. NO ONE ever knows for sure, so it's all about Risk Management. It’s easy when you look at some chart and the closing price and say I can do this, but in real time it’s much different.

If you are day-trading (and you are not) then you should settle positions before the end of the trading day. So I mainly day-trade, but I'm always looking for set-ups to back up the truck when I think a nice position trade is come along (SLV-AGQ-USLV is one I’m watching)....Silver and the gold miners are indexes that I will be playing this year from the long side, and no stocks unless I'm shorting them. If the S&P goes under 1700 I might take a short-term move…maybe….!

Using stops trading the gold miners using 3X indexes will almost always be hit so I take profits quickly. Holding GDX and GDXJ is a different trade, and I will also hold USLV for a position trade, but keep size small. There are plenty of traders getting whipsawed and stopped out today trading the gold miners that went short yesterday. Since I’m day-trading and do it full time I take profits when I want. If I take a 30k trade at the open with a 3X index, (and I take plenty of them) a 10% move up today like JNUG is doing usually gets me selling. Why, well a 3k profit is plenty for me in one day.

Sure, it could go higher, but I just made 3k in just a few hours…I hope you get my point, and it’s the way I day-trade, and I do it full-time. There is plenty more information that goes with what I told you, but the bottom line is I follow Kaplan for my Long-term investing, and trading is NO MORE then gambling in most cases.

As for your comment about DUST it’s down over 8% as I’m typing this. Again, day-trading 3X (especially the miners) indexes are different from even normal trading.
Different traders do different things, but that's what I try and do. As for the short selling you asked about, I think stocks have more upside, and the metals/miners are just starting a new multi-month rally so I don't like to short either one except for very short-term trades (hour trades sometimes).
I'm looking to buy metals/miners and short stocks whenever I think the set-up/odds are in my favor.

The Bottom Line is: 99% of day-trades lose money, and you should not do it. Trading 3X indexes should not be used for position trades, but many folks do it anyway. It's nice when the index is going up, but when it's coming down you can blow-up an account. I hang out in 2 chat rooms and I know of folks that lost 3/4s of their retirement money taking big positions on gold/gold miners using 3X indexes.

I also know folks that cashed in their TSP accounts, paid the penalty and bought gold with the money. Now, maybe gold will go to 5000 dollars a ounce, but my point is taking High Risk Trades and investments is ok – IF YOU ARE NOT USING RETIREMENT MONEY….I’m trying to spend all my TSP money, but in an orderly fashion, and that’s what I’m currently doing.

Now with all that said....I'm retired and do this full time because my wife still works and I have fun doing it. I WOULD NEVER recommend to anyone to short-term trade 3X indexes unless they had many years of trading and investing under their belts. What we do here at TSptalk is different and with a Scottrade account you can do the same thing, but with unlimited moves. That's why I started this because I hated the restrictions TSP puts on us, but started getting greedy and was trading 3x indexes.....I have lost a ****-load of money trading 3X indexes and would recommend to you not to use them, until you can prove to yourself you can make gains using 1X indexes....

As for your TSP account there are lots of really smart folks here at TSPtalk that will help you make nice returns over the years. The key is not to ride down Bear Markets, and I think one is a coming. I’m retired and the number rule for my accounts is NOT to lose money and take TO MUCH RISK.

I have 9 other rules I follow, but the first 5 are all don’t lose money. The last five is a bucket list on how to spend all the money I have. The Big Bull has a ****-load of money (Birchtree) and makes more ever year. I don’t **** money away much and I’m basically debt free, so I’m spending lots of money and will still leave plenty to my kids…not that they need it, but I doubt very much I will ever spend all the money I have saved….However, losing half of it during the next Bear Market now would not be a smart thing to do.

Anyway, hope this makes since…I’m not a very good writer, and add to it the meds I’m on and half the crap I write doesn’t make sense to me either after I write it.
Well, they ran the stops on many traders yesterday holding the miners, and today another short squeeze. If you look at the daily swings Highs and Lows of JNUG, JDST, NUGT and DUST you will see why I day-trade the miners…..

Good investing to you and stay away from trading. I think I answered all your questions. Usually I'm making lots of trades, but again I have no settled funds until tomorrow so no day-trading today.
 
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If we get a bear market in the next five years it'll be an ambush and I'll certainly bleed - but my income stream will eat just fine and continue to DCA all the way down that cold deep well. I enjoyed your write up. Any comment on EPB - I think I'll buy some for my wife's IRA.
 
You all are still talking code. Need an interpreter to understand half of what is being said. But it is entertaining. Till then watching for a bear to hit. Then putting it all in G that day. If lucky.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Birchtree said:
If we get a bear market in the next five years it'll be an ambush and I'll certainly bleed - but my income stream will eat just fine and continue to DCA all the way down that cold deep well. I enjoyed your write up. Any comment on EPB - I think I'll buy some for my wife's IRA.
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Thanks. It's tough writing with the medications I'm on, but I need them to get thru the day. No comment on EPB, but you need to add some gold miners, and silver soon. A nice move up in silver is close in my opinion.....SLV - AGQ - USLV..... The short-cover rally in silver when it comes will be jaw dropping to most folks.

Hope things are going well.....
 
robo said:
Thanks. It's tough writing with the medications I'm on, but I need them to get thru the day. No comment on EPB, but you need to add some gold miners, and silver soon. A nice move up in silver is close in my opinion.....SLV - AGQ - USLV..... The short-cover rally in silver when it comes will be jaw dropping to most folks.

Hope things are going well.....
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What are you looking at for a USLV entry?
 
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