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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: The move up continues...
SPX - say hello to 4600
Most have been surprised by the squeeze continuing to push higher. Here we are with the SPX futs trading at the big 4600 level. We jumped above the 100 day moving average yesterday, but this is getting slightly overbought. Our main take remains intact: SPX lacks a trend, so trade it with a mean reversion mind. Next resistance above the 4600 is the 4640 level. First bigger support is down at the 4500/4480 area.
https://themarketear.com/
SPX - say hello to 4600
Most have been surprised by the squeeze continuing to push higher. Here we are with the SPX futs trading at the big 4600 level. We jumped above the 100 day moving average yesterday, but this is getting slightly overbought. Our main take remains intact: SPX lacks a trend, so trade it with a mean reversion mind. Next resistance above the 4600 is the 4640 level. First bigger support is down at the 4500/4480 area.
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Long some TLT and I bought my first tranche of FXY today. Lots of cash on hand and I like to trade extremes....
JPY is on the move and this is why you need to care
When a massive asset class / currency (3rd most traded globally) moves like this it more often than not gets ripple effects in other asset classes / risk appetite. It is worth paying attention. The gap vs US equity volatility (VIX) that has now opened up would also support our "long VIX" call from late last week. Time for a Yen thread.
https://themarketear.com/
JPY is on the move and this is why you need to care
When a massive asset class / currency (3rd most traded globally) moves like this it more often than not gets ripple effects in other asset classes / risk appetite. It is worth paying attention. The gap vs US equity volatility (VIX) that has now opened up would also support our "long VIX" call from late last week. Time for a Yen thread.
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
This Crystal Ball Sees Trouble Ahead
Jeff Clark | Mar 28, 2022 |
So, if you’re making short-term bullish bets, be careful…
The VIX “crystal ball” has a very good track record. I’m betting it’ll prove correct this time as well.
Best regards and good trading,
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-crystal-ball-sees-trouble-ahead-2/
Jeff Clark | Mar 28, 2022 |
So, if you’re making short-term bullish bets, be careful…
The VIX “crystal ball” has a very good track record. I’m betting it’ll prove correct this time as well.
Best regards and good trading,
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-crystal-ball-sees-trouble-ahead-2/
robo
Well-known member
Quit While You’re Ahead
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220325/
March 2022
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc220325/
March 2022
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: The trend remains up!
The 3/26/22 Weekend Report Preview
Stocks recovered the 200 day MA on Tuesday then went on to print a new daily cycle high on Friday.
Friday was day 21 for the daily cycle. The new high on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
The 3/26/22 Weekend Report Preview
The 3/26/22 Weekend Report Preview
Stocks recovered the 200 day MA on Tuesday then went on to print a new daily cycle high on Friday.
Friday was day 21 for the daily cycle. The new high on day 21 shifts the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation. That aligns with stocks being in a daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.
The 3/26/22 Weekend Report Preview
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPX - now that was quick
SPX has gained almost 400 points since recent lows. The panic up has been stronger than the panic down and has taken most by surprise. Despite all the price action since early January, the SPX remains in a wide range and lacks a proper trend. In our thematic emails (premium subs only), we outlined the latest VIX guy logic on March 9 (the guy nailed it again) and on March 15, in our note "The only thing we have to fear right now is fear itself...", we suggested "How about one of those violent bear market squeezes?". Since then equities have exploded higher and vols have collapsed. The potential has played out very well. It is time to book profits and look for the next opportunity. Time for a thread and some early buying of protection.
https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?u...campaign=premium&utm_content=tme_website_link
SPX has gained almost 400 points since recent lows. The panic up has been stronger than the panic down and has taken most by surprise. Despite all the price action since early January, the SPX remains in a wide range and lacks a proper trend. In our thematic emails (premium subs only), we outlined the latest VIX guy logic on March 9 (the guy nailed it again) and on March 15, in our note "The only thing we have to fear right now is fear itself...", we suggested "How about one of those violent bear market squeezes?". Since then equities have exploded higher and vols have collapsed. The potential has played out very well. It is time to book profits and look for the next opportunity. Time for a thread and some early buying of protection.
https://www.zerohedge.com/premium?u...campaign=premium&utm_content=tme_website_link
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: Lots of opinions out there on what the SPY will do next. After the current move up I'm flat SSO and looking at a possible SDS trade. I like to trade SSO and SDS in one of my trading accounts.
Consolidation
Stocks remain stretched above the 10 day MA.
Stocks have begun to crawl along the 200 day MA, which is allowing the day 10 MA to catch up to price.
So tonight I wanted to drill down to the 4 hour chart for a different perspective.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/03/24/consolidation/
Consolidation
Stocks remain stretched above the 10 day MA.
Stocks have begun to crawl along the 200 day MA, which is allowing the day 10 MA to catch up to price.
So tonight I wanted to drill down to the 4 hour chart for a different perspective.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/2022/03/24/consolidation/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: Day 5 since moving above the 50 dma, but still stopped at the 100 dma. The last time it moved above the 100 dma in Feb it failed twice. Watching to see how this plays....
10 minutes to go before the closing bell, so a move and a close above the 100 dma will have to wait.......
10 minutes to go before the closing bell, so a move and a close above the 100 dma will have to wait.......
Attachments
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robo
Well-known member
SPX - time to chill?
SPX has squeezed from the low of the range straight up to the high of the range. People still try to push the break out momentum, but there is no trend in SPX to be pushed. Let's see where we go from here, but we are rather overbought; 4500/45200 is a big "congestion" area and short gamma is gone (dealers are sellers of deltas on upticks). Time for SPX to chill for a few days?
https://themarketear.com/
SPX has squeezed from the low of the range straight up to the high of the range. People still try to push the break out momentum, but there is no trend in SPX to be pushed. Let's see where we go from here, but we are rather overbought; 4500/45200 is a big "congestion" area and short gamma is gone (dealers are sellers of deltas on upticks). Time for SPX to chill for a few days?
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
This Signal Hasn’t Happened in Over Two Years
Jeff Clark | Mar 24, 2022 | Market Minute | 3 min read
The Volatility Index (VIX) is often called Wall Street’s fear gauge. It’s rare to get VIX sell signals.
We get VIX buy signals about four or five times each year.
But we haven’t had a VIX sell signal in two and half years.
Well, we just got one…
Look at this chart…
Like I said, VIX sell signals are rare. And, they’re not all that bad… at first.
The two previous sell signals led to immediate (but shallow) declines.
In each case, the S&P 500 lost about 2% over the next week or so. That’s about 100 points on the S&P 500 in today’s environment.
Following those brief declines in late November 2019 and August of 2018, the S&P 500 bounced back and rallied to even higher levels. So, if we follow that road map, traders ought to be looking to buy if the S&P 500 dips back down into the 4350-4400 range.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-signal-hasnt-happened-in-over-two-years/
Jeff Clark | Mar 24, 2022 | Market Minute | 3 min read
The Volatility Index (VIX) is often called Wall Street’s fear gauge. It’s rare to get VIX sell signals.
We get VIX buy signals about four or five times each year.
But we haven’t had a VIX sell signal in two and half years.
Well, we just got one…
Look at this chart…
Like I said, VIX sell signals are rare. And, they’re not all that bad… at first.
The two previous sell signals led to immediate (but shallow) declines.
In each case, the S&P 500 lost about 2% over the next week or so. That’s about 100 points on the S&P 500 in today’s environment.
Following those brief declines in late November 2019 and August of 2018, the S&P 500 bounced back and rallied to even higher levels. So, if we follow that road map, traders ought to be looking to buy if the S&P 500 dips back down into the 4350-4400 range.
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/this-signal-hasnt-happened-in-over-two-years/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Opinion: As stocks wobble, the March 2000 Nasdaq top is a harsh reminder that the long run isn’t always your friend
Last Updated: March 22, 2022 at 12:54 p.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert
The stock market doesn’t necessarily produce handsome returns over time
Most investors are in denial about this part of U.S. market history, either ignoring it altogether or believing that it’s irrelevant to what the future holds. The extraordinary bull market of the past decade has spoiled investors into thinking that spectacular gains, year in and year out, are to be expected. Yet assuming the future is even remotely like the past, they sooner or later are in for a very rude awakening.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...-long-run-isnt-always-your-friend-11647893789
Market Extra
The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know
Last Updated: March 23, 2022 at 2:03 p.m. ET
First Published: March 22, 2022 at 3:32 p.m. ET
By Vivien Lou Chen
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted ahead of every U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to Principal Global Investors
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...estors-need-to-know-11647977540?mod=home-page
Last Updated: March 22, 2022 at 12:54 p.m. ET
By Mark Hulbert
The stock market doesn’t necessarily produce handsome returns over time
Most investors are in denial about this part of U.S. market history, either ignoring it altogether or believing that it’s irrelevant to what the future holds. The extraordinary bull market of the past decade has spoiled investors into thinking that spectacular gains, year in and year out, are to be expected. Yet assuming the future is even remotely like the past, they sooner or later are in for a very rude awakening.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a...-long-run-isnt-always-your-friend-11647893789
Market Extra
The yield curve is speeding toward inversion — here’s what investors need to know
Last Updated: March 23, 2022 at 2:03 p.m. ET
First Published: March 22, 2022 at 3:32 p.m. ET
By Vivien Lou Chen
The U.S. Treasury yield curve has inverted ahead of every U.S. recession since the 1950s, according to Principal Global Investors
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/t...estors-need-to-know-11647977540?mod=home-page
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: The first test of resistance (100 dma) failed, and now we are close to testing support (50 dma) We shall see if it holds and if it's really support.
Many traders are watching this: I have no opinion on how this will play out, but the pattern is clear. So it needs to be different this time. The last two times it failed to hold above the 100 dma. The SPY went on to make a lower low. Maybe this time it will make a higher low like it did in March. We shall see.....
SevenSentinels Retweeted
navtrader
@Trader_NAV
4h
There's a graveyard silence in the bear camp. That's the uncertainty the bear market rallies create. I will continue to probe on the short side with small stops. There will be some whipsaws here. But once we get some momentum, we will not see any new highs after that.
Many traders are watching this: I have no opinion on how this will play out, but the pattern is clear. So it needs to be different this time. The last two times it failed to hold above the 100 dma. The SPY went on to make a lower low. Maybe this time it will make a higher low like it did in March. We shall see.....
SevenSentinels Retweeted
navtrader
@Trader_NAV
4h
There's a graveyard silence in the bear camp. That's the uncertainty the bear market rallies create. I will continue to probe on the short side with small stops. There will be some whipsaws here. But once we get some momentum, we will not see any new highs after that.
Attachments
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