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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
This bounce is doing well, but I remain a ST trader. The 50 and the 200 dma are up next. We shall see how it handles those levels.
SPY daily: The 50 dma be up next.... It failed to move above and hold the last three times....
Attachments
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robo
Well-known member
David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
Mar 15
Here's a sample of our latest Charts with Dave -- a periodic piece with an in-depth overview of the current macro and market climate.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1503717781774213130/photo/1
@EconguyRosie
Mar 15
Here's a sample of our latest Charts with Dave -- a periodic piece with an in-depth overview of the current macro and market climate.
https://twitter.com/EconguyRosie/status/1503717781774213130/photo/1
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robo
Well-known member
Chinese tech stock crash is now the worst ever
Jason Goepfert
We need to talk about tech
Whenever a conversation starts, "We need to talk about...", you know it's not gonna be good. And there is no worse not-gonna-be-good than Chinese tech stocks.
We've touched on this sector a couple of times. In September, the sector was about as washed out as it had ever been, with more than half of the stocks falling to a new low and the average stock suffering a massive 60% drawdown.
Over the next couple of months, the stocks did exactly what they should, which was precisely nothing. Bellwethers like Tencent were holding up well, showing relative strength and following through on their virtually perfect record of savvy stock buybacks.
And then the floor fell out.
The latest down leg has surpassed the financial crisis, with the average stock down a massive 74% from its 52-week high.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-14c0756b6d-1271291994
Jason Goepfert
We need to talk about tech
Whenever a conversation starts, "We need to talk about...", you know it's not gonna be good. And there is no worse not-gonna-be-good than Chinese tech stocks.
We've touched on this sector a couple of times. In September, the sector was about as washed out as it had ever been, with more than half of the stocks falling to a new low and the average stock suffering a massive 60% drawdown.
Over the next couple of months, the stocks did exactly what they should, which was precisely nothing. Bellwethers like Tencent were holding up well, showing relative strength and following through on their virtually perfect record of savvy stock buybacks.
And then the floor fell out.
The latest down leg has surpassed the financial crisis, with the average stock down a massive 74% from its 52-week high.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-14c0756b6d-1271291994
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
Are The Bond Vigilantes Back?
jessefelder
March 16, 2022
The long-term chart of the 30-year treasury yield may now be the most important chart in the world. For the past 30 years or so, the yield on the long bond has formed a fairly neat channel that has only been violated relatively briefly at times. The drop below 1%, at the height of the Covid panic, tested the lower end of that channel. Since then, it has reversed higher and now appears poised to test the upper end. This area also coincides with key horizontal resistance at 2.5% that dates back to the lows put in at the height of the Great Financial Crisis.
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/03/16/are-the-bond-vigilantes-back/
jessefelder
March 16, 2022
The long-term chart of the 30-year treasury yield may now be the most important chart in the world. For the past 30 years or so, the yield on the long bond has formed a fairly neat channel that has only been violated relatively briefly at times. The drop below 1%, at the height of the Covid panic, tested the lower end of that channel. Since then, it has reversed higher and now appears poised to test the upper end. This area also coincides with key horizontal resistance at 2.5% that dates back to the lows put in at the height of the Great Financial Crisis.
https://thefelderreport.com/2022/03/16/are-the-bond-vigilantes-back/
robo
Well-known member
Fed this and that, but KWEB steals the show
From extremely oversold to basically overbought in a day. Volumes are beyond huge. It doesn't get more extreme than this...at least not in index land.
https://themarketear.com/
From extremely oversold to basically overbought in a day. Volumes are beyond huge. It doesn't get more extreme than this...at least not in index land.
https://themarketear.com/
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: A new buy signal, but will it hold. Holding above the 3 ema, and the 20 ema. The 50 day sma be up. The SPY tracked 23 days (trending lower) below the 20 ema.... Not what we want to see!
ST- The trend is now up. We shall see how it plays out. Whipsaws have been the norm lately.
ST- The trend is now up. We shall see how it plays out. Whipsaws have been the norm lately.
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robo
Well-known member
KWEB daily: Trying to bottom.....
https://kraneshares.com/kweb-aims-to-fully-transition-to-hong-kong-shares-in-coming-months/#
Charlie Munger has recognized value since before World War II.
As the above article mentions, Charlie Munger--who only has about 98 years of life experience--is a big fan of Chinese internet companies. Like Seth Klarman and Benjamin Graham, he is focused on fundamentals rather than hype. Whenever the most-experienced investors are aggressively buying while the least-knowledgeable traders are bailing out from disappointment it is time to step up to the plate.
Kaplan
I bought some shares in early trading using a limit order. I was surprised it filled. Beer Money trade....
03/15/2022 07:50:19 Bought 100 KWEB @ 20.25
https://kraneshares.com/kweb-aims-to-fully-transition-to-hong-kong-shares-in-coming-months/#
Charlie Munger has recognized value since before World War II.
As the above article mentions, Charlie Munger--who only has about 98 years of life experience--is a big fan of Chinese internet companies. Like Seth Klarman and Benjamin Graham, he is focused on fundamentals rather than hype. Whenever the most-experienced investors are aggressively buying while the least-knowledgeable traders are bailing out from disappointment it is time to step up to the plate.
Kaplan
I bought some shares in early trading using a limit order. I was surprised it filled. Beer Money trade....
03/15/2022 07:50:19 Bought 100 KWEB @ 20.25
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
The market is expecting a 25-basis-point increase tomorrow.
How about one of those violent bear market squeezes?
Macro trading has been very interesting over past months. This market has a lot to digest going forward; the first Fed rate hike, QE going QT, peak inflation and much more. As we have seen over the past few trading sessions we are prone to strong contra-trend reversals (commodities). Are we setting up for something similar in equities? Let's see how the stressed market will take FOMC tomorrow.
VIX - how is under the hood stress doing?
VIX remains elevated as we approach FOMC. We are down from recent "panic" highs...
https://themarketear.com/
How about one of those violent bear market squeezes?
Macro trading has been very interesting over past months. This market has a lot to digest going forward; the first Fed rate hike, QE going QT, peak inflation and much more. As we have seen over the past few trading sessions we are prone to strong contra-trend reversals (commodities). Are we setting up for something similar in equities? Let's see how the stressed market will take FOMC tomorrow.
VIX - how is under the hood stress doing?
VIX remains elevated as we approach FOMC. We are down from recent "panic" highs...
https://themarketear.com/
robo
Well-known member
Thanks!
TommyIV
Administrator
robo
Well-known member
Recession reflections
GS economists currently assign a roughly 20%-35% probability of a US recession in the coming year. Goldman: "Under such a scenario, we would invariably have to cut our EPS estimate even further. From a historical perspective, during a recession S&P 500 EPS typically falls by 13% from peak-to-trough before rebounding by 17% during the subsequent four quarters" (Goldman)
https://themarketear.com/
GS economists currently assign a roughly 20%-35% probability of a US recession in the coming year. Goldman: "Under such a scenario, we would invariably have to cut our EPS estimate even further. From a historical perspective, during a recession S&P 500 EPS typically falls by 13% from peak-to-trough before rebounding by 17% during the subsequent four quarters" (Goldman)
https://themarketear.com/
robo
Well-known member
What the S&P's 10-and-10 correction suggests for the next few months
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-03-15 at 07:35:00 CDT
A 10-and-10 decline with no exhaustive selling pressure
It's been less than 3 months, but it feels much longer. As investors heralded the end of 2021, stocks were sitting at all-time highs, and the outlook (according to most) was excellent.
Now 10 weeks removed from the last weekly closing high in the S&P 500, the most benchmarked index in the world is still sitting more than 10% below its high point. Buyers' apathy and inability to build on even minor rallies is a hallmark of bear markets, and that fear is building by the day.
Curiously, there have been no days with truly exhaustive selling pressure during this entire stretch. Despite the large (but not extreme) price swings, there have been zero days with more than 90% selling pressure. The NYSE Up Issues Ratio has remained above 10% the entire time, unlike the pandemic crash and its aftermath.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-8689f65809-1271291994
Jason Goepfert
Jason Goepfert
Published: 2022-03-15 at 07:35:00 CDT
A 10-and-10 decline with no exhaustive selling pressure
It's been less than 3 months, but it feels much longer. As investors heralded the end of 2021, stocks were sitting at all-time highs, and the outlook (according to most) was excellent.
Now 10 weeks removed from the last weekly closing high in the S&P 500, the most benchmarked index in the world is still sitting more than 10% below its high point. Buyers' apathy and inability to build on even minor rallies is a hallmark of bear markets, and that fear is building by the day.
Curiously, there have been no days with truly exhaustive selling pressure during this entire stretch. Despite the large (but not extreme) price swings, there have been zero days with more than 90% selling pressure. The NYSE Up Issues Ratio has remained above 10% the entire time, unlike the pandemic crash and its aftermath.
https://www.sentimentrader.com/blog...l&utm_term=0_1c93760246-8689f65809-1271291994
Attachments
robo
Well-known member
HYG refusing
Despite SPY having done little over past weeks, the HYG continues crashing and has under performed massively since February 23. Second chart shows the longer term view.
https://themarketear.com/
Despite SPY having done little over past weeks, the HYG continues crashing and has under performed massively since February 23. Second chart shows the longer term view.
https://themarketear.com/
