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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
SPY monthly: Getting closer - To moving back above the 10 month moving average... For now it remains resistance and is still very stretched above the mean. We shall see how it plays out as the Fed pulls back from its balance sheet and increases rates..... Like many have pointed out.... The easy money has been made. The Bulls will want to see a close back above the 10 month ma. ( Last chart - a closer look) It's normal for the monthly to trend much closer to the 50 month ma. However, we haven't seen much we can call normal for a few years now.
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robo
Well-known member
SPX - where is the trend?
Contrary to belief, SPX lacks a trend. The index has traded stuck in a big range with huge oscillations, but without a real trend. These type of markets are very frustrating for most, as people tend to get stopped out both ways. Note futs touched the 200 day moving from below briefly. 4470 is a resistance to watch, and then (if) the 4500 level. Supports are; 4350/4300 and then the big 4200 (if). What this market really needs is a consolidation in order to "sober up" before any new meaningful direction can take place. Lastly, note the 100 day still trading much higher and sloping negatively...
https://themarketear.com/
Contrary to belief, SPX lacks a trend. The index has traded stuck in a big range with huge oscillations, but without a real trend. These type of markets are very frustrating for most, as people tend to get stopped out both ways. Note futs touched the 200 day moving from below briefly. 4470 is a resistance to watch, and then (if) the 4500 level. Supports are; 4350/4300 and then the big 4200 (if). What this market really needs is a consolidation in order to "sober up" before any new meaningful direction can take place. Lastly, note the 100 day still trading much higher and sloping negatively...
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
You know who does not think the squeeze has gone far enough....?
The buyback bid do not care about short-term levels. Yes, we have entered blackout period which means that roughly 1 billion of demand per day has been removed but we are still running at a very healthy $3bn per day in corporate demand. Every day....
https://themarketear.com/
The buyback bid do not care about short-term levels. Yes, we have entered blackout period which means that roughly 1 billion of demand per day has been removed but we are still running at a very healthy $3bn per day in corporate demand. Every day....
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
Sentiment sneaking up on "extreme bear"
So close, so close....BofA Bull & Bear Indicator since 2002. The 5 latest buy signals over the past 10 years have been great buy signals (partly / all thanks to having been in a secular bull market...)
https://themarketear.com/
So close, so close....BofA Bull & Bear Indicator since 2002. The 5 latest buy signals over the past 10 years have been great buy signals (partly / all thanks to having been in a secular bull market...)
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
Inflation: When will the Fed get control of it?
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
https://twitter.com/jessefelder
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robo
Well-known member
SPY daily: The move up continues..... We shall see how next week plays out.
Stocks Deliver Bullish Signal
by likesmoneystudies
Stocks delivered a very bullish signal this week.
Stocks closed above the converging 10 week MA and 50 week MA to confirm week 20 as the intermediate cycle low. Stocks are currently in a weekly downtrend. But a close back above the upper weekly cycle band will end the weekly downtrend and begin a new weekly uptrend.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/
Stocks Deliver Bullish Signal
by likesmoneystudies
Stocks delivered a very bullish signal this week.
Stocks closed above the converging 10 week MA and 50 week MA to confirm week 20 as the intermediate cycle low. Stocks are currently in a weekly downtrend. But a close back above the upper weekly cycle band will end the weekly downtrend and begin a new weekly uptrend.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.wordpress.com/author/likesmoneystudies/
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Bullitt
Well-known member
Good link! Cramer was always a fundamentals guy so it was different to hear him discuss that demark indicator. He gets a lot of hate and is an easy target, but I still like Jim Cramer.
Making progress, next stop is the 50% retracement.
robo
Well-known member
IWM daily: It needs to be different this time. Since December the 3 or 4 up day pattern has slowed down the move up. (Runs out of enough buyers as sellers step in) We are tagging the upper BB, and the RSI is tagging 70. ( I use 5). However, we have moved above the 50 dma and are holding so we shall see if it's different this time.
Heading into the last hour
Heading into the last hour
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robo
Well-known member
Hmmmm..... We shall see how it plays out!
3-16-22 Mad Money with Jim Cramer and the DeMARK Indicators
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9MkjLor9B0
3-16-22 Mad Money with Jim Cramer and the DeMARK Indicators
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n9MkjLor9B0
robo
Well-known member
Which fear is greater?
It took the VIX 8 days to move from recent lows to recent highs...and it has taken VIX 8 days to move from recent highs to below the lows we saw before this last panic move started. A lot of people are once again realizing they have bought worthless protection. We come back to one of our general mantras when it comes to protection; do not buy protection when you must, buy it when you can...
https://themarketear.com/
It took the VIX 8 days to move from recent lows to recent highs...and it has taken VIX 8 days to move from recent highs to below the lows we saw before this last panic move started. A lot of people are once again realizing they have bought worthless protection. We come back to one of our general mantras when it comes to protection; do not buy protection when you must, buy it when you can...
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
Goldman: the main question for markets....
"The main question for markets remains whether the FOMC will hike by 25bp or 50bp at its upcoming meetings. We saw evidence supporting both the 25bp and 50bp positions in today’s meeting. We do see a meaningful risk of a 50bp hike at some point, most likely at one of the next few meetings when inflation is likely to remain highest. But for now we are sticking with our forecast that the Fed will hike by 25bp seven times this year and four more times next year, for a terminal rate of 2.75-3%"
https://themarketear.com/
"The main question for markets remains whether the FOMC will hike by 25bp or 50bp at its upcoming meetings. We saw evidence supporting both the 25bp and 50bp positions in today’s meeting. We do see a meaningful risk of a 50bp hike at some point, most likely at one of the next few meetings when inflation is likely to remain highest. But for now we are sticking with our forecast that the Fed will hike by 25bp seven times this year and four more times next year, for a terminal rate of 2.75-3%"
https://themarketear.com/
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robo
Well-known member
SPX - stuck
Despite all the "huge" narratives, the SPX has remained trading inside the 4200/4400 ish range. Fed is over, the war situation is somewhat old news and progress seems ongoing and the China selling panic has turned around violently. Have some of the major themes faded quicker than anyone anticipated? What about SPX here?
The index is close to the big resistance around the 4400 level. Note the falling 50 day still higher (at 4430) and the 200 day moving at 4460. Is the next pain trade a less volatile SPX range as we continue to lack a short term trend? A break above above the 4400 level would probably suck for people that have missed the latest squeeze, but there is a lot of resistance in the 4480/4500 area.
https://themarketear.com/
Despite all the "huge" narratives, the SPX has remained trading inside the 4200/4400 ish range. Fed is over, the war situation is somewhat old news and progress seems ongoing and the China selling panic has turned around violently. Have some of the major themes faded quicker than anyone anticipated? What about SPX here?
The index is close to the big resistance around the 4400 level. Note the falling 50 day still higher (at 4430) and the 200 day moving at 4460. Is the next pain trade a less volatile SPX range as we continue to lack a short term trend? A break above above the 4400 level would probably suck for people that have missed the latest squeeze, but there is a lot of resistance in the 4480/4500 area.
https://themarketear.com/
