Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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HERD MENTALITY
17 November 2010 by TPC

http://pragcap.com/herd-mentality

NDR Crowd Sentiment Poll At April 2010 Highs

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/ndr-crowd-sentiment-poll-at-april-2010-highs-5049.html


Bought SP @ 1177
For a possible ride to somewhere between 1245-1350

We will have to see the action between 1200-1230 to refine the target

http://www.xtrenders.com/



Nov 17, 2010The Real Threats Are Anemic Growth And Deflation, Not Inflation.

http://nourielroubiniblog.blogspot.com/2010/11/real-threats-are-anemic-growth-and.html

Thoughts from the cooks

http://www.drunkchicken.com/from_the_kitchen.shtml

Let's get started - Brian Culbertson

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkRC0YePdks&feature=fvw


80% G Fund 10% in C and S.... This is a Thanksgiving day rally casino bet only.... The market is short-term oversold and due a bounce. Risk Trade is now in play.....

I hope you enjoy Brian -I enjoy his music. Make sure you cook up some chickens....They don't have to be drunk either before you cook them.

Short-term....Bullish Longer-term.....PAIN is coming!
 
"[The Fed] is very smart, but [it] doesn't run the markets. In the end, the markets will run [the Fed]. The markets are bigger than any man or any group of men. The markets can even break a president…"
—Richard Russell (Dow Theory Letters, 8/4/04)



November Options Expiration Week Historically Bullish
By Christopher Mistal

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com...term=Almanac+Investor+Stock+Trader's+Almanac+


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UXxRyNvTPr8&feature=related


Market Condition: Oversold


"Historically, equity investors have overpaid for comfort and excitement."
- Jeremy Grantham
 
robo said:
"
November Options Expiration Week Historically Bullish
By Christopher Mistal

http://blog.stocktradersalmanac.com...term=Almanac+Investor+Stock+Trader's+Almanac+


Good info, however, I would like to point out, that in recent history, +/- 5 years, only 3 instances of 2 week net gain occur when the market has entered Nov OPEX above 10,000.
I still am highly skeptical that the banks are fighting tooth and nail to keep liquidity leaks under control.
After the QE2 backlash, I am wondering if the Fed got a clue to see what has become of the trillions pumped into the economy via QE, all the while the cartel still resists loaning, and thusly ordered Stress Test 2 to match the latest payday loan to the banksters, lest he (Benny) be hung out to dry like the rest of us.
Click to expand...
 
How I'm listening to the music videos I post.

http://www.bose.com/controller?url=..._3/index.jsp&perfsourceid=k232270&src=k232270


They are sweet!


November 18, 2010SPY : Bounce retraces 50 % !

http://etfstocks.typepad.com/


Well, is the Turkey Day rally over or is there more upside to come?

Let us ask Chris Johnston. A sweet link from the Cooler - Bullitt!

Thursday, November 18, 2010

THE GAME'S A FOOT!

http://iamafuturestrader.blogspot.com/


We shall see!

100% G Fund again. Why? I don't trust anything about this market!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pm_h5xjEY5c&feature=related
 
Don't Worry Baby - Everything will turn out Alright…… and I agree, but when?


Sure - Sure - I know, yeah, it has to be, it can't happen again so soon, ha....I'm not worried at all. It really is different this time - shoot, we have QE2 now don't we? Ha....I'm not worried at all...Are you?

Good trading to both Bulls and Bears....Money to be made both ways, but pigs get....well,
you know!

Robo


We've seen time and again that the standard model of rational financial economics is next to useless at predicting anything at all useful about stock markets.

Yet, despite this, the model is retained and used in many forms, often disguised and packaged to look like something new and valuable.

Inevitably it turns out to be neither as soon as it's needed.

Putting to one side the unworthy thought that the world's major financial institutions are managed by idiots, the fact that these models continue to attract support and investment seems to suggest that there's something wrong with the alternative.

If behavioural finance--the study of how human psychological biases distort markets--is so much better than the models of rational, calculating, utility-balancing economic man, why do we cling so to the old ways?

Although as there are world leaders out there who still use astrology to make decisions, perhaps we shouldn't be too surprised.

At some point, though, for some reason external to the market, such as excitement over the internet or the Space Race or railroads or tulips or bronze helmets or fig leaves or something, a majority of investors start to exhibit the same biases--usually starting in the form of people losing their fear of losing money.

Markets take off on a roll attracting more and more loose money until such time as the boom can't be sustained and everything goes into terrified reverse.

--"Timarr", "The Special Theory of Behavioural Finance", PsyFiTec.com, August 20, 2009.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3QCZ_bv9aLc
 
Ha.... "Easy Money".... for sure. I made a few bucks today myself. Go Ben!


“Buy the dip” and “don’t fight the Fed” have become universal rally cries in recent weeks. It now appears as though no one believes the market can sustain a decline. Unfortunately, the market generally frustrates the most people most of the time. If that saying rings true today the market is at a particularly risky juncture.

http://pragcap.com/investor-sentiment-remains-extremely-bullish
 
Yeah - I know, it's different this time!

Robo



Interest Rates are Flashing a Warning Sign
By Jeff Clark
Thursday, November 18, 2010


Let the crisis begin.


In a liquidity crisis, investors sell off nearly everything in a mad rush to get cash. Need proof? Just look at the first quarter of 2009. Lehman Brothers had just gone belly-up and there was a genuine fear the United States' financial system was going to fail. Long-term Treasury bond prices fell 14%. The S&P 500 dropped 25%. General commodity prices dropped 17%. And the dollar rallied 10%.

Cash is king in a liquidity crisis. So hang on to yours.

Best regards and good trading,

Jeff Clark

http://www.growthstockwire.com/
 
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 11/11/2010 09:31 -0500


Insider Selling Hits All Time Record Of $4.5 Billion In Prior Week As Everyone Is Getting Out Of Market

Insiders have officially marked the top of the stock market: last week's insider selling of all stocks (not just S&P) hit an all time record of $4.5 billion. This is the biggest weekly number ever recorded by tracking company InsiderScore.com: as Sentiment Trader highlights no other week before had more than $2 billion in net selling.

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/in...illion-prior-week-everyone-getting-out-market
 
Your Last Chance to Buy Gold
By Jeff Clark
Tuesday, November 23, 2010


If history is destined to repeat, gold stocks may be headed for a rough spell.

The gold sector bullish percent index (BPGDM) flashed a sell signal last week. So the odds now favor an intermediate decline for the sector.

http://www.growthstockwire.com/
 
Tuesday, November 23, 2010. 9:30 a.m.


It’s a Critical Time for the Market.

The financial news is focused on surrounding conditions as the reason for the recent market pullback and uncertainties in global markets. And there have been more than a few, including debates over whether QE2 will be a positive or negative, the return of worries over the European debt crisis in Europe, and now apparent warlike activity by North Korea.

But those may only be the catalysts for the market’s uncertainty. The problem may lie in the technical condition of the market, at a time when investor sentiment has reached a level of bullishness higher than seen at most market tops.

http://www.streetsmartpost.com/
 
BEING STREET SMART

by Sy Harding

Here's What Investors Should Be Watching! November 19, 2010.

The market is in what is usually its favorable season of November to May, when it typically makes most of its gains each year. But it hasn’t been that way so far.
Among other worries, analysts are concerned that the market’s consistent annual seasonality of ‘Sell in May and Go Away (until November1)’ has failed to work over the last two months. The market topped out on schedule in late April and was down 16% by July.

This fall it began what is historically the worst three-month period of the year, August, September and October, with a big decline in August, which was the worst August in years. But then, usually negative September and October turned out to be just about the most positive two months of the year.

http://streetsmartreport.com/comm3.html


Sy Harding is president of Asset Management Research Corp, and editor of www.StreetSmartReport.com, and the free market blog, www.streetsmartpost.com.

These reports reflect our opinions and are based on our best judgment, but no warranty is given or implied as to their accuracy. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
 
Saturday, November 20, 2010
Investor Sentiment: Happy Thanksgiving

It is hard to envision how any one data point will matter in this holiday shortened week. Nonetheless, looking beyond next week, I will repeat what I stated last week: "If the market hasn't topped out already, it should do so within a couple of percent of the recent highs. Rallies should be sold and stops tightened up. The market is prone to sudden sell offs. There will be better risk adjusted opportunities to buy in the future."

http://thetechnicaltakedotcom.blogspot.com/2010/11/investor-sentiment-happy-thanksgiving.html
 
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