Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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The Irrational Investor
It is correct to approach market timing with a positive attitude, as well as positive expectations. To feel confident that your strategy will not only be quite profitable, but will also protect you from the inevitable declines that always occur in the markets.

The SPY has support at $106 and the SPX has support at 1056.88. If we close below these levels in coming days, we expect declines to continue with a test of the July 1 correction lows probable.

http://timing.typepad.com/timer/
 
robo said:
The Scale Tips to the Bullish Side - 08/23/10

The U.S. stock market has already discounted a recession/double dip. It is time to fade the growing negative consensus and adopt a variant view by becoming more constructive on stocks.

http://seabreezepartners.net/letters&id=798&catid=15
Click to expand...


Who are these people? You have to register with them before they give you information about themselves????:mad:

Right off the bat I would 'discount' their unsupported statement (contrarian in the extreme) just for the mask they wear.
 
JTH,

I'm currently waiting for the next extreme myself. It’s the only way I trade these days or make moves in my TSP account and other 401k accounts. I’m using several tools that help me identify extremes and the charts are in the mix. With limited moves less is better in this market.

Another tool we should add to our toolbox is – “The NAAIM Survey of Manager Sentiment”.
http://www.naaim.org/naaimadsenttrend.aspx


http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/08/naaim-sentiment.php


Since NO ONE INDICATOR should be 100% trusted or traded on this is another indicator we can use. When several of them line up it's time to make a move. It never guarantees a winning trade, but it sure increases our odds, and helps control Risk-Management.

Still in the G Fund....

Take Care!

Robo
 
Boston!
August 30, 2010

Speaking to the upcoming two-month two-step, this quip was recently scribed in the always observant “Dines Letter”:

“Labor Day: If the market declines in the four-day week following Labor Day (starting and including Tuesday, September 7th this year and ending on Friday, September 10th), one should postpone buying for one month. It worked splendidly in 1994, 1998, 1999, 2000, 2001, 2002 and 2008, when postponed buying provided buyers with prices near a bottom in all seven Octobers. On the other hand, if there is a gain in that four-day week, the market will probably keep going higher; true in 1993, 1995, 1996, 1997, 2003, 2005 and 2009 when the market posted a gain in the week after Labor Day and continued to rise in subsequent months. This did not work however in 2004, 2006 and 2007. No Indicator works every time, but those are the latest odds.”

http://www.raymondjames.com/inv_strat.htm
 
Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Bull vs Bear Case - Neener vs Kass & Brinker

Bob Brinker remains bullish. Honeybee reported Sunday:
Brinker has been forecasting sizable gains in the S&P for 2010 and the winter of 2011. Back in the March, 2010 issue, Brinker said: "Our 2010 target range for the S&P 500 Index remains in the 1200 to 1260 zone." In May, Brinker raised that to "upper-1200's to low-1300's." He nailed the numbers down a bit more in June and July, forecasting the S&P would reach "the 1275 to 1325 range by next winter."
From today's close of 1051.87, Brinker's 1275 to 1325 estimate for the S&P500 means he is predicting a gain of between 21% and 26%!!!

http://bobbrinkerfanclub.blogspot.com/
 
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