Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Often times when a trend line is broken the market is setting up for a head fake - then it turns and makes a very aggressive run in the opposite direction. I think we are going much higher.
 
Birchtree said:
Often times when a trend line is broken the market is setting up for a head fake - then it turns and makes a very aggressive run in the opposite direction. I think we are going much higher.
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Big Bull,

I agree with you about the head fake - Bull Trap some are calling it. I'm looking to go long again soon - now that most systems are back on sell signals..... BUT NOT YET! How does this affect you? Well, not at all, since they can't shake you, because you are not weak hands.

However, looking at the tracker, and my paid services , and many TA’s and blogs, they are back on sell signals again. Another Big rally is coming, but how much selling first is the question. I would think enough to trap the Bears again...

The head fake was when the 50dma and 200dma got the Bulls excited again.

The head fake is under way now and should be over when the herd is Bearish and short again, it should be soon, but the low 1000's is possible in the next few weeks. Now that I'm seeing many sell signals again - I'm starting to turn Bullish again.


It's summer trading time all right.... Easy to move the market on news events and cause the herd to change directions.... same old story....over, and over, and over again. They will never learn.


07/30/2010


Another Fake out Coming?
by Carl Swenlin
It has occurred to me that there have been two fake out trend changes since the April top, and I am wondering if a third fake out is in progress. The first fake out was the rally from a double bottom and a breakout above a declining tops line, which was accompanied by a PMO crossover buy signal. This proved to be a bull trap as the rally failed.

http://blogs.decisionpoint.com/chart_spotlight/2010/07/another-fakeout-coming.html


"The recent very obvious head fake had induced nearly all chartists, momentum players, and incompetent traders of all kinds to buy and to cover their short positions when they should have been selling and/or selling short. When will they ever learn"?


Take Care and Good Trading to you Big Bull.
 
You're totally right. Most momentum systems have reversed course to sells, which will only mean another short squeeze to make a lower high. But then again, pretty soon the bull camp will be crying inverse head and shoulders. No way to read the money flows either when most positions are held for a few hours, so every day is a new day. Head fakes have been left and right within a market that hasn't gone anywhere in a few months (actually years.)

I just can't get CSCO out of my mind. A global bellwether, down 10% in one day!

The only thing that can fix this is a little more coffee in the gas tank Monday morning for easy money Monday. That should get the systematic traders back into the markets. I'll be looking for a lower level though in TSP to get back in for the hopes of having a bit of a buffer. The strategy I've used with the Roth IRA just cannot work in TSP when you get 1-2% intraday swings. Not to beat a dead horse, but with no setting of limit buys and sells in TSP, we're swinging the bat blindfolded.
 
Back and forth, the bungee cord jumper careening to both extremes.

We continue with consistent volatility in the indices and the "big name" stocks.

Up 5-6% one day and down 5-6% the next.

We've heard the question "how do make decisions in this kind of market?".

The answer is you don't, at least not intelligent ones anyway.

There is only time to react to the movement of the moment.

Stepping back for a moment, it is very hard to call what has happened in the Nasdaq a true bear market.

It may be the beginning, but if so, we're nowhere near the end.

The S&P and the Dow are so close to their all time highs that if you had been gone since the beginning of the year, you would wonder if anything had happened at all to these indices in the meantime.

As has been central to our theme of the onset of a true blue bear market, the public must become involved.

It simply can't be a professionals only shootout that lasts a few short weeks and then all is well.

The public has exhibited no fear up to this point.

No fear whatsoever.

And who can blame them?

They have been conditioned through years of vigorous training to sit tight.

Buy the dips.

The market always snaps back.

Mutual fund inflows for the week ended last Wednesday were $6 billion.

Any redemptions have been papered over by new contributions.

The public never sold.

Fear was never truly present in a magnitude that would cause action (selling).

Investor sentiment readings remain uncharacteristically high for the damage that has been inflicted in the markets.

Reflex or snapback rallies are to be expected in this type of market.

The reflex moves can be vicious.

The NDX 100 was up close to 10% in the first half hour of trading yesterday.

Is this long term investing?

Of course not.

This is action of the manic crowd.

The next true bear market in this country will only be completed when accompanied by public fear.

Fear of principal loss.

Fear of capital risk.

The absence of greed.

On these counts, we haven't even begun.

Notice how the Microsoft news was so quickly forgotten in the tech stocks today?
Enough said.

--ContraryInvestor.com, "The Chicken or the Egg$$$$", April 25, 2000.
 
Mike Burk

Technical market report for August 14, 2010

The good news is:
· The market is oversold going into a seasonally strong week.

Conclusion
The market had a rough week, but it is now oversold going into a seasonally strong week
I expect the major averages to be higher on Friday August 20 than they were on Friday August 13.
This report is free to anyone who wants it, so please tell your friends.
They can sign up at: http://alphaim.net/signup.html

In his latest newsletter, Jerry Minton looks at the "94% bet" which occurs in the fourth quarter of the year. You can read about it and subscribe to the free newsletter at www.alphaim.netThank you,
Mike Burk
YTD W14/L13/T5
 
Comments: August 13, 2010

Current position Long: 84% Rydex NDX 2x Fund for Monday. Markets fell for a fourth day as early after-market gains met discouraging economic news. Still the blowout on Thursday morning was not penetrated and our probabilities are strong for an up-side recovery. I expect that there might be some Monday morning negative carryover as Thursday morning lows may be tested. I am looking for a rally that should carry us through mid-week bringing the S&P back to test the 1120 level. Please pick up your free password so you can read about our longer-term forecast, and download the free "T" index software.

http://www.stocmarket.com/commentp.htm
 
The "Real" Mega-Bears
August 14, 2010 weekend update
It's time again for the weekend update of our "Real" Mega-Bears, an inflation-adjusted overlay of three secular bear markets. It aligns the current S&P 500 from the top of the Tech Bubble in March 2000, the Dow in of 1929, and the Nikkei 225 from its 1989 bubble high.

http://dshort.com/
 
Stop the Plot Against Seniors!


We've got to stop them. If enough of us speak out against Social Security cuts now, then people like me, fighting to protect Social Security, can show the media where We, The People stand on this.

That's why I've started a petition telling Congress and the President, "Don't Steal My Social Security." It tells every Federal official with a say on this that if they vote to cut Social Security, then they're going to have to find another line of work. You know that extension in unemployment benefits that we just passed? That will be for them.

http://salsa.mydccc.org/o/30019/p/dia/action/public/?action_KEY=51
 
People often act on an impulse even if they know they have harmed themselves time and time again in the process of so doing.

A winning trader becomes too confident about his positions and misses sell signals.

A fearful trader beaten up by the market becomes too fearful and sells too early.
When he sees the stock immediately rise again, overshooting his original profit target, he can no longer stand the pain of missing the rally and buys way above his original entry point.

The stock stalls and slides and he watches in horror as it sinks like a rock.
In the end, he can't take any more pain and sells out for a loss---right near the bottom.

The original plan to buy may have been rational, but actually executing on his plan created an emotional storm.

--Lance Jepsen, GuerillaStockTrading.com, July 11, 2010.
 
Tuesday’s Trading – 8/17/2010

August 17th, 2010 Kudlow Sez It’s OK
On his CNBC show last night, Larry Kudlow had a guy on who said that the USA has not been exporting jobs. Thanks for clearing that up, Larry. Now maybe you can explain why we have over 40 million people on food stamps. That’s more than the entire population of Canada.

http://www.trivisonno.com/
 
That's because we are feeding the illegitimate children of the minority at risk class. They make their lives a welfare state. 75% of Negro American children are born illegitimate - there's a reason for that occurrence.
 
robo said:
People often act on an impulse even if they know they have harmed themselves time and time again in the process of so doing.

A winning trader becomes too confident about his positions and misses sell signals.

A fearful trader beaten up by the market becomes too fearful and sells too early.
When he sees the stock immediately rise again, overshooting his original profit target, he can no longer stand the pain of missing the rally and buys way above his original entry point.

The stock stalls and slides and he watches in horror as it sinks like a rock.
In the end, he can't take any more pain and sells out for a loss---right near the bottom.

The original plan to buy may have been rational, but actually executing on his plan created an emotional storm.

--Lance Jepsen, GuerillaStockTrading.com, July 11, 2010.
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Um...No need to rub that in fella - but hey the shoe, unfortunately fits. :blink:
 
Birchtree said:
That's because we are feeding the illegitimate children of the minority at risk class. They make their lives a welfare state. 75% of Negro American children are born illegitimate - there's a reason for that occurrence.
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Dude, like that's the children's fault....
You wanna feed em or starve em for being born?
That is a CTP almost to the letter.....
save em then toss em aside.
I expect more from you than the typical spew of fox 24/7.
You set your own high standards to live up to and comments like that don't enhance your optimistic persona. :D
(better put a grin in there so you know I'm just givin you sheet)
 
Birchtree said:
That's because we are feeding the illegitimate children of the minority at risk class. They make their lives a welfare state. 75% of Negro American children are born illegitimate - there's a reason for that occurrence.
Click to expand...

Is that you Birch? Oh, who else...lol.

Here is good one for ya. The occupants of Sec. 8 housing knock holes in there walls, when the gov. workers come to visit they pass the kids through to the next unit to up the ante for govment bennies for everyone in the complex.

Boy those kids must all look alike or the gov. workers are pretty dumb OR they just dont give a flock (last is probably true)
 
CRWS,

Why are so many inner city schools failing? Kids of sufficient means don't like to be bused to a trash dump. So their parents move and take their tax basis out of reach. Why are the liberal teacher unions against charter schools? They are concerned about their own survival rather than what is best for the minority at risk student.
 
Birchtree said:
CRWS,

Why are so many inner city schools failing? Kids of sufficient means don't like to be bused to a trash dump. So their parents move and take their tax basis out of reach. Why are the liberal teacher unions against charter schools? They are concerned about their own survival rather than what is best for the minority at risk student.
Click to expand...

you are what you learn. I'm not endorsing it or the behavior like FAB posted...
it's a cycle and MO is, it is up to us, the ones that learned more from our parents, to help break it or show other ways. You just have to look to 3rd world cultures we have tried to achieve that end with to see how hard it is to change.
It's really no different because it is a multi-generational culture.....
I agree with your school thoughts, being a teacher is a commitment and like medicine, I think there should be active internship for challenged areas to break the stagnation and enhance skillsets.
 
Birchtree said:
That's because we are feeding the illegitimate children of the minority at risk class. They make their lives a welfare state. 75% of Negro American children are born illegitimate - there's a reason for that occurrence.
Click to expand...
Reason dad can't get a job cause people think he's a risk (look at negro male employment) so if he marries he's just a burden, and mom has to work to get welfare (that legislation came out during the Bush administration and still is in) and she won't be getting very good child care on part time and welfare.
 
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