Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

[robo]

David Rosenberg
@EconguyRosie
·
Nov 3
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[robo]

Well, a buy signal on the daily and weekly charts, and it looks good on the charts. We shall see if it has legs..... I'll be watching to see if those gaps fill or we back test the 200 day MA early in the daily cycle. We shall see how this daily cycle plays out as it is now labeled day 5.


Santa Rally?

On Thursday we discussed how stocks were rejected by the 50 day MA the previous 2 times that they tested it. And closing above the 50 day MA would be a change of character. Stocks closed above the 50 day MA on Friday.
Closing above the 50 day MA on Friday will have us label day 18 as an early DCL. Stocks also closed back above the upper daily cycle band on Friday. Closing back above the upper daily cycle band ends the daily downtrend and begins a new daily uptrend. Closing back above the upper daily cycle band also signals that the ICL has been set.

In The Weekend Report I will further discuss what this means for both the daily cycle and the intermediate cycle — and the yearly cycle. And what expectations we will have based on cycle framework. But let me give you a hint — its bullish.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.blog/2023/11/04/santa-rally/

 

[robo]

SPX daily: Testing the 50 day MA...... Two big gaps left behind as this oversold bounce continues.... The odds of a back-test of the 200 day MA and those gap filling on the daily chart have above average odds of filling in my opinion. However, the buy signal is in and I trade the signals. Day 3 since the daily buy signal, and the weekly is in too this morning. We shall see if the weekly buy signal will hold in the days ahead.

The 20 week MA be up next!

 

[robo]

Stocks Facing Test At 50 MA

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 18, which is too early to expect the DCL to form.
Stocks closed above the 10 day MA on Wednesday. Stocks delivered bullish follow through by closing above the 200 day MA on Thursday, turning the 10 day MA higher, to signal that day 18 was an early DCL. Stocks are now approaching the declining 50 day MA.

Stocks were rejected by the 50 day MA the previous 2 times that they tested it. While some resistance is to be expected, successfully closing above the 50 day MA would be a change of character and would indicate that stocks have begun their intermediate cycle advance. Which I plan to breakdown in the weekend report.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.blog/2023/11/02/stocks-facing-test-at-50-ma/

 

[robo]

SPX daily: A closer look:

 

[robo]

SPX daily: A nice move above the 10 and 20 day MAs with a gap left behind. We shall see how it handles the 50 day MA. I'm trading using Bear Market rules so I will be selling the rips.

 

[robo]

" Unless it's a rare gap and go? "

That would be nice..... Bonds do leave gaps behind in the short-term. Waiting to see how AGG handles the 50 day MA.... If this is a yearly cycle low it should be a nice move up. For now the 50 day MA remains tough resistance.

 

[tsptalk]

Unless it's a rare gap and go? :slomo:

 

[robo]

I'm not really liking the gap up on these charts. We shall have to see how things play out, but the daily buy signal remains for now. Day 6 for the AGG buy signal, and it's testing the 50 day MA.

Have a nice day!

 

[robo]

Bonds monthly: Still no YCL or a buy signal using the monthly data.

For now, Long and wrong bonds.

Long - TLT, EDV and AGG. I'm also long the SPX for a ST oversold trade.

 

[robo]

Bonds weekly: Keep an eye on the dollar.

 

[robo]

Bonds daily: Another buy signal, but it could still be LT move.

I'm still long bonds and ST trading stocks when they get oversold.

 

[robo]

I've called three of the last zero bottoms in bonds.

Lol... only 3! I'm down a tad too on my AGG,EDV and TLT trades.. I'm still long all 3....

 

[tsptalk]

Bonds - TLT/AGG weekly. A possible bottom is forming.... LOL.... that's a guess based on the data.

I've called three of the last zero bottoms in bonds.

 

[robo]

Bonds - TLT/AGG weekly. A possible bottom is forming.... LOL.... that's a guess based on the data.

 

[robo]

VXF daily: Vanguard's version of the S Fund.... Far from the next buy signal if you are trading the weekly charts like I do.

Maybe an oversold bounce is coming for the S Fund too...... We shall see how the lower BB crash trade plays out. ( a move lower than the lower BB)

 

[robo]

SPX weekly: Will shall see how the next move up handles the 10 and 20 week MAs. For now they remain resistance. The next move "could still tag" the 200 week MA .

Bottom Line: We are having a oversold bounce, and we shall have to wait and see how it plays out.

 

[robo]

SPX daily: A closer look. The SPX will need to move back above the 10, 20, and 200 day MA's and the weekly must confirm ( a move back above the 10 week MA) before I think an ICL is in.

 

[robo]

A possible oversold bounce and a ST buy signal based on this chart. We shall see how it plays.... I'm still trading using Bear Market rules.

 

[robo]

I trade TLT and EDV at Vanguard.


A Major Bottom For Bonds?
The huge volume signals that a major bottom is forming. In the Weekend Report I breakdown in detail where bonds are in their daily, weekly, yearly and 3 year cycle and discuss why with virtually everybody bearish on bonds — this will catch many by surprise.