Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)

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Consumer Metrics Institute Growth Index
August 8, 2010 new update


Preliminary Conclusion

The Consumer Metrics Institute's Growth Index hasn't been in operation very long, but thus far it has been an effective leading indicator of GDP. As such, the prospect of a double-dip recession, something that's happened only once since the Great Depression, remains a possibility.


http://dshort.com/
 
NYSE Reversal Indicator
Written by Ryan Mallory | 07 August 2010

After yesterday's strong afternoon rally after hitting some major lows on an intraday basis, I think it is still quite clear that the bulls still have control of the market. I expect that this is will be the week that we will test and likely break that 1130 level on the S&P. If that occurs I think that we'll see another phase of short squeezes thereby driving the market even higher. Notice though, that we are at the high end of the range on the NYSE reversal indicator, but historically, that can mean there is still another 2-3 weeks before seeing any substantial selling - but it is definitely worth noting.

http://www.shareplanner.com/
 
Market Barometer The SharePlanner Market Barometer is provided to you as a resource in determining overall market direction and mood. We primarily use moving averages to dictate direction for each of the indices listed below in combination with current closing prices, and the MACD indicator. The format is easy to read and understand and should help you better understand Wall Street sentiment and how that may affect the individual stocks in your portfolio.

The Market Barometer is updated at the end of each week. Last updated on 8/1/10


http://www.shareplanner.com/education-center/market-barometer.html
 
Reality Beckons (Government Pensions)
Since I've said "I told you so" a few times of late, this time I'll just do this.....

•Unfunded pension liabilities are approximately $2.5
trillion, compared to the reported amount of $493 billion.


•Unfunded liabilities for health and other benefits are
$558 billion, compared to the reported $537 billion.


•Thus, total unfunded liabilities for all benefit plans are an
estimated $3.1 trillion — nearly three times higher than
the plans report.
If you need this translated, it's very simple:

You're not going to get the money you think you were promised.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2563-Reality-Beckons-Government-Pensions.html
 
But we work for the gubment', don't that mean something. Really, I've had about enough of this ****. So what do we do Robo? The best thing I've heard of late is that Mexico may legalize pot just to rid the problem of cartels. Now that would increase their GDP because I'm taking my retirement dollars to a secluded mountain in the middle of that country and smoke my brains out. The rest of the world can bite me.

robo said:
Reality Beckons (Government Pensions)
Since I've said "I told you so" a few times of late, this time I'll just do this.....

•Unfunded pension liabilities are approximately $2.5
trillion, compared to the reported amount of $493 billion.


•Unfunded liabilities for health and other benefits are
$558 billion, compared to the reported $537 billion.


•Thus, total unfunded liabilities for all benefit plans are an
estimated $3.1 trillion — nearly three times higher than
the plans report.
If you need this translated, it's very simple:

You're not going to get the money you think you were promised.
http://market-ticker.org/archives/2563-Reality-Beckons-Government-Pensions.html
Click to expand...
 
August 9, 2010
Corporate "Cash" - Cheering the Asset and Ignoring the Liability

John P. Hussman, Ph.D.

If there is one thing that is singularly responsible for the abysmal returns of the S&P 500 over the past 12 years, it is the ludicrous set of valuation "models" that Wall Street has repeatedly foisted onto an uninformed public in order to sell them on the notion that dangerously overvalued markets were actually "cheap." Knowledge is your best defense. Valuation matters.

http://www.hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc100809.htm
 
JimmyJoe said:
But we work for the gubment', don't that mean something. Really, I've had about enough of this ****. So what do we do Robo? The best thing I've heard of late is that Mexico may legalize pot just to rid the problem of cartels. Now that would increase their GDP because I'm taking my retirement dollars to a secluded mountain in the middle of that country and smoke my brains out. The rest of the world can bite me.
Click to expand...

Nothing we can do Jimmy-Joe, but wait and see. Keep the cup half full, stay positive, be thankful we have good jobs, and vote and stay informed about this. However, it’s the state and local governments that are in the biggest trouble promising retired city workers 80k a year retirements in some cities. One thing is for sure, it doesn’t do us any good worrying about it, that’s for sure.

Take care and we will watch all of this closely and I'm staying out of debt. Sorry, but this consumer is cutting back and looks for sales when I buy! Yeah – consumer confidence, mine is in the toilet alright.

Robo
 
Forget It, Bernanke

August 7th, 2010 Friday’s jobs report was taken as a disappointment even though the private sector continued to add jobs and extend hours-worked. Nevertheless, everybody seems to think that the Fed has no choice but to announce more “quantitative easing” at its meeting on Tuesday.

Is that not hilarious? The government sector is losing jobs, so now the government needs to stimulate itself? Explain that Keynesians!

http://www.trivisonno.com/
 
Markets May Be Jumping the Gun On Fed Easing!
Monday, August 9, 2010. 9:15 am.

The U.S. market’s first reaction to the dismal employment report on Friday was to plunge, with the Dow down 165 points in the first hour. But on second thought it apparently decided the report was bad enough, and enough further evidence that the recovery in in trouble, that the Fed will be forced to quickly provide another round of stimulus. The market recovered late in the day Friday, with the Dow closing down only 21 points, or 0.2%.

Markets in Europe are rallying strongly this morning, reportedly also on a bet that the US Fed will move quickly, probably at its FOMC meeting tomorrow, to provide another round of quantitative easing.

They may be jumping the gun. There are worries about sending the wrong message, as well as opinions that it is too early and perhaps even the wrong medicine.


http://www.streetsmartpost.com/
 
Look What’s Come Home to Roost


The two big economic reports of the past two weeks, last Friday’s GDP report and this past Friday’s jobs report, have solidified, in most people’s minds at least, the plain reality that the jury-rigged recovery is faltering. It was never really an organic recovery, it was almost wholly held together by the government, which reasonably assumed if it threw enough money around, the business cycle would reset itself, and the economy would eventually just, you know, heal. That what the thinking baked into the White House assertion that the stimulus bill would cap unemployment at 8%.

It didn’t work. Partisans will use that against President Obama and the Democrats, but it doesn’t have anything to do with politics. The nation’s problems go much deeper than which party controls the levels of power (both parties, incidentally, have proven themselves unfit for such duty.)

http://markettalk.newswires-americas.com/
 
robo said:
Nothing we can do Jimmy-Joe, but wait and see. Keep the cup half full, stay positive, be thankful we have good jobs, and vote and stay informed about this. However, it’s the state and local governments that are in the biggest trouble promising retired city workers 80k a year retirements in some cities. One thing is for sure, it doesn’t do us any good worrying about it, that’s for sure.

Take care and we will watch all of this closely and I'm staying out of debt. Sorry, but this consumer is cutting back and looks for sales when I buy! Yeah – consumer confidence, mine is in the toilet alright.

Robo
Click to expand...


Yeah, What the hell is with that? Local gov't giving their retires 80k to 100k a year? Of course they need more tax money for,............ wait for it............, their schools. Grifters. They can bite me too.
 
The myth of the Social Security system's financial shortfall

The trust fund is in far better shape than critics admit.
ByMichael Hiltzik

August 8, 2010

The annual report of the Social Security Trustees is the sort of rich compendium of facts and analysis that has something for everybody, like the Bible.


So all the whining you hear about how redeeming the trust fund will require a tax hike we can't afford is simply the sound of wealthy taxpayers trying to skip out on a bill about to come due. The next time someone tells you the trust fund is full of worthless IOUs, try to guess what tax bracket he's in.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-hiltzik-20100808,0,1359956.column
 
August 9, 2010
Not In 25 Years, Social Security Is Bankrupt Now
By Bill Frezza

This just in from the trustees that issue the annual report on the health of those two pillars of the modern entitlement state: Medicare and Social Security. For the first time in its history the Social Security program will pay out more money than it takes in. This watershed event will occur this year, to the tune of $41 Billion dollars. Under any rational accounting standards this makes the Social Security program bankrupt. And that's right now, not in 25 years when the so-called Trust Fund becomes insolvent.

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/art...rs_social_security_is_bankrupt_now_98611.html
 
Guest post: El-Erian on why the payrolls report matters
Posted by Guest writer on Aug 06 20:27.

Today’s employment report was disappointing, writes Mohamed El-Erian. Nonfarm payroll employment declined by 131,000 in July, the rate and duration of unemployment remain stubbornly high, and other structural dimensions of the problem are deteriorating.

The disappointment is not limited to July. Friday’s news also included unfavorable revisions to data released in previous months.

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/201...-el-erian-on-why-the-payrolls-report-matters/
 
Drama at the Fed Meeting?
August 6, 2010, David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer


The forthcoming Fed meeting (August 10) is likely to feature an internal debate. We MAY see some evidence of it in the statement released after the meeting’s conclusion. We will not know the intricate details for years.

http://www.cumber.com/commentary.aspx?file=080610.asp
 
The Biggest Pump Monkey of all Times.... Sure Larry, what we need is to print more money....
Amazing! I can't give my opinion of him at TSP Talk, so you get the idea!


August 09, 2010
Is a Fed Policy Shift Coming?

http://www.realclearmarkets.com/video/2010/08/09/is_a_fed_policy_shift_coming.html


Friday’s Trading – 8/6/2010
Kudlow Still Clueless
Last night on his CNBC show, Larry Kudlow tried to make excuses for Corporate America’s outsourcing of jobs by saying that the USA had a hostile business environment.

http://www.trivisonno.com/fridays-trading-862010



Clueless Kudlow
At the beginning of his CNBC show on Wednesday night, Larry Kudlow asked: “Big business is making big money, but why aren’t they creating jobs?” Kudlow doesn’t understand the very system that he advocates: wide-open free trade. Corporate America is creating jobs in places like China, India, and Mexico. As a matter of fact, Whirlpool recently sent 1,100 refrigerator-making jobs from Indiana to Mexico. What’s the problem, Kudlow? Everything is going according to plan – your dumb jobs-exporting plan.


http://www.trivisonno.com/
 
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