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Bear Cave 2 (Bull Allowed)
- Thread starter robo
- Start date
robo
Well-known member
SPX monthly: The next Bear Market, based on the historical data, indicates a tag of the 200 month MA s/b close to the bottom. That is when the remaining Bullish investors always sell close to the historical lows. Those that BTD to early usually are in that group too. I have traded a few Bear markets and have the scars to prove it.
Good trading to all.
Good trading to all.
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robo
Well-known member
The inverted yield curve at around 18 months now has never been wrong. It has to be different this time or we are getting closer. The world and our government can't get much done either. Blame who you want, but the inverted yield data is sending out a warning signal. Don't buy to much if you are BTDs!
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robo
Well-known member
SPX daily: We shall see if the 200 day MA tag holds up, or if the market just sucked buyers into the market just before the 3rd wave down starts. Pass the popcorn until the weekly signal confirms. Not sure that signal will hold either, but I take the signals win, lose or draw.
LT Trend - Bear Market trading remains in play.
LT Trend - Bear Market trading remains in play.
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robo
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
Where's robo?
My wife and I are currently caregivers for her 97 year father who recently fell and broke his hip and also just had a mild stroke
Still unable to post much, but my data remains "Cash is king for now" as I wait for a weekly buy signal.
I use the weekly cycles for TSP due to the 2 moves a month restriction.
The daily went to a buy signal for the SPX, but I have been trading the gold miners.
Bottom Line: The daily signal is on a buy signal, and still no confirming signal for the weekly. Week 6 since the weekly sell signal after a very nice 19 week run above the 10 week MA..... A larger move "IF" you are using the 20 week MA. I use the 10 week MA.
I remain 100% F fund because I think the Fed is about done and the commercials are at a historical long position for bonds. I like trading with the commercials even though they are usually early.
My wife and I are currently caregivers for her 97 year father who recently fell and broke his hip and also just had a mild stroke
Still unable to post much, but my data remains "Cash is king for now" as I wait for a weekly buy signal.
I use the weekly cycles for TSP due to the 2 moves a month restriction.
The daily went to a buy signal for the SPX, but I have been trading the gold miners.
Bottom Line: The daily signal is on a buy signal, and still no confirming signal for the weekly. Week 6 since the weekly sell signal after a very nice 19 week run above the 10 week MA..... A larger move "IF" you are using the 20 week MA. I use the 10 week MA.
I remain 100% F fund because I think the Fed is about done and the commercials are at a historical long position for bonds. I like trading with the commercials even though they are usually early.
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oke:
robo
Well-known member
Miner Risk
The Miners are in their timing band for an intermediate and yearly cycle low.
At this point it is not clear of week 24 was the ICL or not. Depending on your risk tolerance, long positions can be entered on a weekly swing low. However, there will likely be volatility until the Miners can close above the 200 week MA. A more conservative entry would be a close above the 200 week MA.
Cycle chart:
LM Combo Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker as of 9/08/23
The first number is the time period for the current cycle high.
The second number gives the current cycle count.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.blog/2023/09/09/miner-risk-3/
The Miners are in their timing band for an intermediate and yearly cycle low.
At this point it is not clear of week 24 was the ICL or not. Depending on your risk tolerance, long positions can be entered on a weekly swing low. However, there will likely be volatility until the Miners can close above the 200 week MA. A more conservative entry would be a close above the 200 week MA.
Cycle chart:
LM Combo Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker as of 9/08/23
The first number is the time period for the current cycle high.
The second number gives the current cycle count.
https://likesmoneycycletrading.blog/2023/09/09/miner-risk-3/
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robo
Well-known member
The inverted U.S. Treasury curve has never falsely signaled a recession going back to 1789
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
You should be buying U.S. Treasuries and selling U.S. stocks: https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2023/09/when-all-feels-calm-and-prices-surge.html
Need to Know
What seven decades of yield-curve history tells us about the business cycle and the stock market, strategist says
Last Updated: Sept. 8, 2023 at 8:40 a.m. ET
First Published: Sept. 8, 2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET
Darda has examined seven-decades of the yield curve and how it relates to the business cycle and equity market performance. Using the spread between 10-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and 1-year BX:TMUBMUSD01Y bond yields he found there have been 12 inversions since the 1950’s.
Importantly, during these occasions the inversion was shown to have preceded the eventual recession by a wide range of between seven to 25 months, with an average lag of 14 months.
U.S. stocks have never been more overpriced relative to U.S. Treasuries:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...and-the-stock-market-strategist-says-6983d62e
True Contrarian
@TrueContrarian
You should be buying U.S. Treasuries and selling U.S. stocks: https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/2023/09/when-all-feels-calm-and-prices-surge.html
Need to Know
What seven decades of yield-curve history tells us about the business cycle and the stock market, strategist says
Last Updated: Sept. 8, 2023 at 8:40 a.m. ET
First Published: Sept. 8, 2023 at 6:27 a.m. ET
Darda has examined seven-decades of the yield curve and how it relates to the business cycle and equity market performance. Using the spread between 10-year BX:TMUBMUSD10Y and 1-year BX:TMUBMUSD01Y bond yields he found there have been 12 inversions since the 1950’s.
Importantly, during these occasions the inversion was shown to have preceded the eventual recession by a wide range of between seven to 25 months, with an average lag of 14 months.
U.S. stocks have never been more overpriced relative to U.S. Treasuries:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/h...and-the-stock-market-strategist-says-6983d62e
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robo
Well-known member
I continue to watch the inverted yield curve and rates.... Many others are too... We shall see how it all plays out as we move into the 2024 election.
4- Maybe it was just one of those "glitches"?
It looks like NASDAQ finally has started to notice the latest move in rates...The connection between tech and the US 10 year has actually been strong since mid July.
4- Maybe it was just one of those "glitches"?
It looks like NASDAQ finally has started to notice the latest move in rates...The connection between tech and the US 10 year has actually been strong since mid July.
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robo
Well-known member
The crocodile gap
The longer term gap between NASDAQ and the US 10 year remains huge.
https://themarketear.com/newsfeed
The longer term gap between NASDAQ and the US 10 year remains huge.
https://themarketear.com/newsfeed
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robo
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
robo
Well-known member
The yield curve and recessions: An indicator that is not talked about much these days. A historical extreme in the current yield curve. The commercials think it matters based on their current positions.
We shall see how it all plays out in the months ahead, and how the Fed speak plays out! Unless it's different this time there be some trouble ahead. I think this election cycle will put extra pressure on the markets.
We shall see how it all plays out in the months ahead, and how the Fed speak plays out! Unless it's different this time there be some trouble ahead. I think this election cycle will put extra pressure on the markets.
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robo
Well-known member
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robo
Well-known member
The historical data indicates that an inverted yield curve matters. We shall see how this setup plays out.
Why the Long-Term Picture is Bearish
Jeff Clark | Aug 24, 2023 | Market Minute | 3 min read
But if history is any sort of a guide, then the long-term picture is bearish. Stocks tend to perform poorly when the yield curve shifts from an inverted condition to an upward slope.
And since the yield curve was recently more inverted than ever before, the longer-term picture for stocks is quite bearish.
Best regards and good trading,
Signature
Jeff Clark
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/why-the-long-term-picture-is-bearish/
Why the Long-Term Picture is Bearish
Jeff Clark | Aug 24, 2023 | Market Minute | 3 min read
But if history is any sort of a guide, then the long-term picture is bearish. Stocks tend to perform poorly when the yield curve shifts from an inverted condition to an upward slope.
And since the yield curve was recently more inverted than ever before, the longer-term picture for stocks is quite bearish.
Best regards and good trading,
Signature
Jeff Clark
https://www.jeffclarktrader.com/market-minute/why-the-long-term-picture-is-bearish/
